Theories of Change

CALP webinarJuly 2016

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• “Whosoever wishes to know about the world must learn about it in its particular detailsKnowledge is not intelligence.In searching for the truth be ready for the unexpected.Change alone is unchanging.The same road goes both up and down.The beginning of a circle is also its end.Not I, but the world says it: all is one.And yet everything comes in season.”

• Heraclitos of Ephesus, 500 B.C

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A ToC is not a diagram

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However creative

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Ways people describe theory of changefrom Comic Relief Study

• Programme theory/ logic/ approach • A road map for change • A causal pathway/ chain/ model/ map • Pathways mapping • Intervention theory/ framework/ logic • A process of open enquiry and dialogue • A clear and testable hypothesis • A logic model • A blueprint for evaluation • Back to basics • A direction of travel • A sense of direction

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Approaches to theory of change

• Approach 1: Those that focus on how projects or programmes expect to bring change

OR • Approach 2: Those that explore how change happens more

broadly and then what that means for programme interventions – including advocacy and influencing!

Theory of Change is simply an on-going process of reflection to explore change and how it happens – and what that means for the part we play in a particular context, advocacy campaign or programme

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THEORY OF CHANGE

Political literacy Technical tool

ToC is seen as providing practitioners with anopportunity to engage more honestly with the complexity of change processes.

ToC is seen as extending the assumptions/risks columnof a logical framework.

Participatory process

Evolving, iterative

A questioning attitudeA questioning attitude

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Change: Slavery Abolished in the UK

1807British Parliament Act to abolish the slave trade from its colonies

1833-38Slavery Act in Parliament leads to emancipation of slaves in British Empire

1700Slavery is broadly accepted and validated and is key to the production model.

Slave Rebellions in the Americas

Independence of Haiti

Abolitionist laws in other European countries

Quakers & Anglican church internal pressure and parliamentary alliances

Compensation measures for "owners"

Research, evidence and awareness raising

Reform of Parliament in England

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Oxfam’s emerging Theory of Change

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Oxfam’s Gender Justice Theory of Change

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Elements of a Theory of Change for Advocacy and Influencing

lasting change=

convinced decision makers+

credible arguments +

broad and intense support+

an infrastructure that sustains change+

mass attitudes and beliefs that can sustainchange (and sometimes are the change)

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The iterative advocacy planning process External context & How Change Happens

Defined Problem

Proposed Solution/Overall Theory of Change

SMART Objectives/Outcomes

Power analysis

Strategies & TacticsTheory of Change

Plan of actions with Timeline

Resources required

MEL Plan & Risk

AlliancesWho to collaborate with?

TargetsWho to influence?

Credible research

Policy analysis and development

Lobbying

Policy Dialogue

Citizens voice

Media

Alliances

Popular mobilisation

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When analysing the external context it is important to:• Grapple with complexity

• Deepen our understanding of power, power relationships, institutions

• Understand the interaction between political and economic processes and the trends in distribution of power and wealth – (see political economy analysis)

• Work out your theory or theories of change in order to decide HOW to go about your programmes and WHO to work with

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ToC – A cycle of planning and critical reflection

Power Analysis

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Develop your unique change pathway – a way to do itBackward mapping – outcomes to strategies/activities

1. Clarify your goal – ultimate impact that you want to influence/ achieve (results statement)

2. Identify long term changes that will support this goal and that you can influence (indirectly) (long-term outcomes)

3. Work backwards: ask yourselves, in order for this to happen what needs to change (who would be doing what differently)? (medium-term outcomes)

4. Again: ask “in order for these changes to take place, what has to be different (who would be doing what differently – what would have to be in place?) (short-term outcomes) – remember – power mapping

5. Once you have agreed and written up long, medium and short term outcomes, discuss and agree:

o Who you should be engaging with?o What you should be doing – yourself and with others?

(strategies/activities)

Link it all to your power analysis

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Change Pathway (or Outcome Map/Impact Chain)

Overall Change

Long-term outcome

Long-term outcome

Strategies

Medium-term outcome

Medium-term outcome

Medium-term outcome

Medium-term outcome

Short-term outcome

Short-term outcome

Short-term outcome

Short-term outcome

Short-term outcome

Strategies

Strategies

Strategies

Strategies

Strategies

Intermediate Outcomes

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5 key questions in the hypothesis of prospective change

1. What is the long-term change we want to see?2. Which is the route? In this context and with these

stakeholders and opportunities, what are the most important short and mid-term outcomes in policies, practices, ideas and beliefs to reach the long-term change and with whom?

3. What are the cause-effect relationships between the different short and medium-term outcomes?

4. Will the strategies deliver the outcomes/change?5. Are your strategies and outcomes realistic? Are your

assumptions tested?

6. assumptions?

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Testing the TOC - What is an assumption?

• Assumption = something that is accepted as true or certain to happen but there is no proof (yet)

• Good practice in Theories of Change says “assumptions must be made explicit, categorised and linked to specific aspects of the change pathway”

Some common assumptions we make in our work?

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Testing the TOC - What is an assumption?

• Assumption = something that is accepted as true or certain to happen but there is no proof (yet)

• Good practice in Theories of Change says “assumptions must be made explicit, categorised and linked to specific aspects of the change pathway”

Some common assumptions we make in our work?

• People are not aware of their rights and because of this they don’t act.

• If women participate in politics, they will advance women’s rights.

• If we achieve a pro-poor policy change, positive change for women and marginalized groups will come.

• If we strengthen civil society organizations, they will influence the government

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Testing the logic and your assumptions

For each of the links that you make, ask yourselves the following sort of questions:

• Why did you think that x would lead to y? • What might hinder this from happening? (e.g. costs,

opposing views, lack of trust/ capacity/technology, people losing assets etc.)

• Are there any missing links?• Who else might need to be involved? • Looking at the pathway again, are there better ways of

getting to your goal?• Are there things you are not sure or confident about?• What do your other stakeholders think?

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If………… Then………

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What do they look like?

• No “official” format – depends on context in which you are developing one and what type of intervention

For instance

• Policy change focus only

• Focused on attitude and behaviour change as well as political or policy change at national level

• Part of a “one programme” approach – delivery programme at community level linked to partners linked to national policy change or the creation of an enabling environment etc.

Examples of theories of change

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Key Strategies: Research, strengthening women’s capacity in leadership, effective use of media, public campaigning, working with women’s movements and champions to address barriers towards women’s leadership, coalition building and networking, policy influencing and advocacy

WOMEN’S RIGHTS THEORY OF CHANGE

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ToC – A cycle of planning and critical reflection

Power Analysis

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What to do in complex or uncertain situations ?

• Informed best guess

• Choosing a number of entry points

• Close monitoring

• Willingness to stop or change approach

• Regular moments to reflect and adjust

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TOC and MEAL - Key questions

In Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) there are three critical questions:

• Are we doing what we said we would do?• (Internal Validity)

• Are we making a difference?• (Evaluation)

• Are these the right things to do?• (Strategic relevance)

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TOC and MEAL plansConsider what information you need to collect to answer the following key questions:

• What has changed (positive/ negative/intended or not)?• For whom?• How significant is this?• How did the changes come about? (What factors contributed

to them)• What if anything did our organisation/programme contribute?• What would we do differently next time?• What information do you need to effectively manage and

evaluate change?

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HOW CAN WE USE THEORIES OF CHANGE?

• Programme/Campaign planning• To bridge the gap between strategic and operational planning• To build a joint vision with partners of what we want to achieve and how we

are going to get there• To show the cause and effect relationships between strategies, outcomes

and long-tern goals with underlying assumptions

• Communication• To summarise the key elements of a programme for new staff, partners and

donors

• Monitoring and evaluation• To identify critical evaluation questions and indicators• Tracking progress to achieving our long-term goals

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Limitations - challenges• In the construction we tend to think about projects and strategies

(internal) not changes in the society and the power relations (external)

• Its a snapshot, and personal/collective interpretation

• Can be over optimistic and too simplistic

• Or they generate anxiety due to complexity and uncertainty

• Can be biased by our preferences/ideologies and worldviews

• They do not identify possible changes in the environment that will challenge the rationale or assumptions made

• Others????

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Useful links• https://sumus.oxfam.org/influencing-hub/wiki/strategy-design

• https://sumus.oxfam.org/camsa-common-approach-mel-and-strategic-accountability/wiki/22-program-planning-and-design

• http://www.theoryofchange.nl/sites/default/files/resource/hivos_toc_guidelines_final_nov_2015.pdf

• http://www.theoryofchange.nl/

• http://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/where-have-we-got-to-on-theories-of-change-passing-fad-or-paradigm-shift/

• http://www.theoryofchange.org/2014/03/28/corelab/

• http://www.theoryofchange.org/library/presentations/

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Useful links

• Http://www.aecf.org/resources/a-guide-to-measuring-advocacy-and-policy/

• http://www.researchtoaction.org/2011/05/theory-of-change-useful-resources/

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Questions AND NEXT STEPS