POWER ANALYSIs, Tocs and Political Economy Analysis

CALP webinarDecember 2015

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Agenda• Re-cap on HCH & Power from Module 1

• The Power Cube in Practice

• Power Analysis Examples Benefits and challenges

• Introducing Theories of Change

• Political Economy Analysis

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Re-cap HCH and Power

• Putting power at the centre of our thinking: political power, economic, psychological, religious and cultural and who & what drives change

• Transformative change – i.e. sustainable changes in power relationships in the lives of poor people

• Achieving change involves using power and affecting power relations and putting power at the centre of all our influencing strategies

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When do you analyse your context?

• At the beginning to ensure your programme: - takes account of the external context - establishes why change is necessary and what that change

should be (your ToC)

• Once you have established your main change objectives and who the specific targets of your influencing work are – go deeper

• Be alert to changes in the external environment throughout your influencing work

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When analysing the external context it is important to:• Grapple with complexity

• Deepen our understanding of power, power relationships, institutions

• Understand the interaction between political and economic processes and the trends in distribution of power and wealth – (see political economy analysis)

• Work out your theory or theories of change in order to decide HOW to go about your programmes and WHO to work with

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The iterative advocacy planning process External context & How Change Happens

Defined Problem

Proposed Solution/Overall Theory of Change

SMART Objectives/Outcomes

Power analysis

Strategies & TacticsTheory of Change

Plan of actions with Timeline

Resources required

MEL Plan & Risk

AlliancesWho to collaborate with?

TargetsWho to influence?

Credible research

Policy analysis and development

Lobbying

Policy Dialogue

Citizens voice

Media

Alliances

Popular mobilisation

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Stories of Change

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The four types of power• Power over: the power of the strong over the weak,

including the power to exclude others

• Power to: the capability to decide actions and carry them out

• Power with: collective power, through organisation, solidarity and joint action

• Power within: personal self-confidence, often linked to culture, religion or other aspects of identity, which influences the thoughts and actions that appear legitimate or acceptable.

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Adapted from Gender at Work

A framework for looking at gender and power

The Power Cube

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Power Analysis for Change

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POWER and STRATEGIES FOR CHANGE

• http://www.powercube.net/strategize-and-act/strategies-and-forms-of-power/

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Examples of power analysis

Power Mapping

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Power Mapping

What is a 'power analysis map’? Why do one?• Understand the networks and relationships between

people and institutions – who has the direct power to deliver the change you want, who can influence them?

i.e. • Who makes decisions concerning your objective?• How are these decisions made?• Who can influence the decision making process and

those with the power to bring about the change you want?

• Allies and opponents? What are their interests?

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Power Mapping cont.

• More than way to cut a cake!

• So a few different tools to establish:- the stakeholders for your advocacy objective(s) - their degree of power to deliver the change you want - who has influence over who.

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Power Power mapping grid

High Influence

Medium Influence

Low Influence

Blocker Floater Champion

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Visual power maps

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Power mapping at global level

Progressive G77, incl. LDCs e.g.

Bangladesh

*Adapted from graphic developed by J. Morgan (E3G) for CAN-International / GCCA

Annex: Map of key players: Power v. ambition*

More powerful Less powerful

More Supportive 2oC

Less supportive 2oC

China

USA

Japan Australia

Canada

S. Korea

Mexico

India

Brazil

Prog. A1 e.g. Norway

Other EU

Saudi/ OPEC

Russia

Indonesia

AOSIS

Rest of Africa e.g. Uganda

Other G77 e.g. Egypt /

Pakistan

Progressive

EU

Climate champions

Swing states

Deal-blockers

Core/deal-makers

S. Africa

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Your policy, practice, attitude or behaviour change objectives

And at the level at which decision-making is made

e.g. local, district, national, global

Who are Key decision-makers?

What is their current position on issue:

Champion (potential driver of change)

Swingers (undecided and persuadable)

Blocker (opposed)

Who can influence them?

And their current position on issue:

Champion, Supporter or Blocker

Level of influence: High or Low

What will influence decision-makers?

Ideas; evidence and research; peer pressure; popular pressure; shocks; etc.

What are their main sources (form) of power?

Is it a visible?

Is it hidden?

Is it invisible?

Who are the key allies or partners on this issue?

What is their influence and position? What role can they play?

Where are particular decisions made? – the spaces

- Closed

-Invited

-Claimed

Implications

What advocacy strategies and activities should you be adopting and what does this mean or for what you are currently doing?

1.

2.

Power Analysis Map

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Top tips• Make your stakeholders specific to your objective i.e.

‘targeted’ & ‘prioritised’

• Ideally your analysis of an institution needs to be subdivided in to named individuals so

a) you can be specific and

b) there may be allies/champions, opponents/blockers, floaters or targets within one institution

• Think about how power can shift and change

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Power analysis & power mapping as part of your programme’s advocacy and campaigning• Put it at the core of any successful campaign strategy development.

• Integrate it at all the stages of strategy development

• Ideally all members of your team and your partners should be part of power analysis

• Update and review

• Don’t overdo it – rigorous but light!

Process Mapping

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Process maps• Help illustrate the network of flows of decision making,

resources or information

• Help identify bottlenecks and constraints

• Help analyse opportunities for changing processes to make them more efficient or effective

• Help us work out how formal and informal institutions affect:

• how things are intended to work • how they actually work

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Institutional analysis

• The formal and informal ‘rules of the game’ and how they are embedded in organisations and processes

• Some institutions will need to be ‘taken as given’, and therefore understood better so can work with or around them

• Some can be changed – and therefore you need to understand them in order to work out how

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Analysing policy and decision-making processes

• Underlying processes of decision making, and how policy is developed and decided on

• The technical processes e.g. how budgets processes or service delivery works

• The less tangible issues of social exclusion, gender relations and historical legacy in decision-making

• National and sub-national relationships

• Laws and regulations

• Ideology and cultural/religious values that effect decision-making

• Global drivers

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Theories of Change

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Ways people describe theory of changefrom Comic Relief Study

• Programme theory/ logic/ approach • A road map for change • A causal pathway/ chain/ model/ map • Pathways mapping • Intervention theory/ framework/ logic • A process of open enquiry and dialogue • A clear and testable hypothesis • A logic model • A blueprint for evaluation • Back to basics • A direction of travel • A sense of direction

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Approaches to theory of change

• Approach 1: Those that focus on how projects or programmes expect to bring change

• OR • Approach 2: Those that explore how change happens more

broadly and then what that means for programme interventions – including advocacy and influencing!

Theory of Change is simply an on-going process of reflection to explore change and how it happens – and what that means for the part we play in a particular context, advocacy campaign or programme

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THEORY OF CHANGE

Political literacy Technical tool

ToC is seen as providing practitioners with anopportunity to engage more honestly with the complexity of change processes.

ToC is seen as extending the assumptions/risks columnof a logical framework.

Participatory process

Evolving, iterative

A questioning attitudeA questioning attitude

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Develop your unique change pathway – way to do itBackward mapping –outcomes to activities

1. Clarify your goal – ultimate impact that you want to influence/ achieve (write as results statement)

2. Identify long term changes that will support this goal and that you can influence (indirectly)

3. Work backwards: ask yourselves, in order for this to happen what needs to change (who would be doing what differently)?

4. Again: ask “in order for these changes to take place, what has to be different (who would be doing what differently – what would have to be in place? )

5. Once you have agreed and written up long, medium and short term changes, discuss and agree:

o Who you should be working with?o What you should be doing with them?

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Developing a Theory of Change

1. Define the impact you want to see (your goal, vision).

2. Outline the outcomes or preconditions necessary to achieve the goal - explaining why (check your assumptions).

3. Do a power analysis and mapping

4. Based on this, determine effective strategies (your specific contribution to the change you want to see)to achieve outcomes and any ‘intermediate outcomes’ along the way.

5. Pull together a theory of change or logic model diagram illustrating the influencing work’s impact, outcomes, and strategies, and a narrative.

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Elements of a Theory of Change for Advocacy and Influencing

lasting change=

convinced decision makers+

credible arguments +

broad and intense support+

an infrastructure that sustains change+

mass attitudes and beliefs that can sustainchange (and sometimes are the change)

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What do they look like?

• No “official” format – depends on context in which you are developing one and what type of intervention

For instance

• Policy change focus only

• Focused on attitude and behaviour change as well as political or policy change at national level

• Part of a “one programme” approach – delivery programme at community level linked to partners linked to national policy change or the creation of an enabling environment etc.

Examples of theories of change

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Political Economy Analysis

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DFID’s Political Economy Analysis: How To Note

Questions AND NEXT STEPS