Impact of Precision Agriculture on the Farm: Sequence of Adoption and Bundles

Terry Griffin, PhD, CCA Cropping Systems Economist

Department of Agricultural Economics

@SpacePlowboy #PrecisionAg #farmData

#PrecisionAgND

Eastern Ontario Crop Conference Kemptville, ON February 14, 2017

Farmer’s Use of Precision Ag

0

25

50

75

100

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Perc

ent o

f Far

ms

Automated Guidance Lightbar Automated Section Control Precision Soil Samplin

Yield Monitor Yield Monitor with GPS Variable Rate Fert. Variable Rate Seed

N=348

Proportion of Farms' Adoption of Precision

Probability of Adopting…

Given…

Precision Soil

Sampling Variable

Rate Fert. Variable

Rate Seed Yield Monitor

w/ GPS Automated Guidance

Precision Soil Sampling

- 59% 30% 65% 87%

Variable Rate Fert 92% - 37% 68% 92%

Variable Rate Seed 75% 60% - 86% 98%

Yield Monitor (w/GPS)

69% 46% 36% - 97%

Automated Guidance 55% 37% 24% 58% -

N=358

Adopting, upgrading, and abandoning

Number of Farms

% abandoned Technology adopt abandon upgrading

abandon (adjusted)**

Yield Monitor w/out GPS 147 60 54 6 4

Lightbar 202 57 45 12 6

Precision Soil Sampling 149 6 NA 6 4

Variable Rate Fertility 94 3 NA 3 3

Yield Monitor w/GPS 142 2 NA 2 1

N=358

Tale of Two Technologies

Information-intensive • Field level data to

make decisions • Requires additional

data and skill • IPM

Embodied-knowledge • Information purchased

in the form of an input • Requires minimal

additional data/skill • Round-up Ready or Bt

Two Faces of Precision Agriculture

Information-intensive • Yield monitors • Traditional variable

rate applications • *Data

Embodied-knowledge • Automated guidance • On-the-go sensors

applying variable rates • *Automated

Precision ag bundles

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% of

Use

rs

YM, PSS, & VR PSS & VRYM & VR YM & PSSVariable Rate (VR) Precision Soil Sampling (PSS)Yield Monitor (YM) None

Probability of transitioning

none PSS PSS VR VR YM

YM PSS

YM PSS VR

YM VR

none 0.94 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01

PSS 0.01 0.82 0.04 0 0 0.12 0.01 0

PSS VR 0.01 0 0.94 0 0 0 0.05 0

VR 0 0 0 0.53 0 0 0 0.47

YM 0.01 0 0 0 0.90 0.04 0.03 0.03

YM PSS 0 0 0.01 0 0.01 0.89 0.11 0

YM PSS VR 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0.99 0.01

YM VR 0.12 0 0 0 0.01 0 0.10 0.77

YM = Yield monitor VR = Variable rate PSS = Precision soil sampling

From

To

Current precision ag utilization

• 20% use telematics in 2015 – Up from 15% in 2013

• Most common (72%) soil grid size = 2.5 ac – Smaller grid sizes used only 13% of time

• 16% of service providers use UAVs

Erickson & Widmar, 2015

Profitability over time

34%

42% 42%

40% 36%

44% 44% 45% 44%

62%

35% 33% 39%

42%

34%

47% 50% 51%

60%

74%

41%

33%

43% 44% 45% 49%

51%

58% 63%

75%

26% 27%

20%

30%

25% 25% 22%

20% 21%

20% 18%

22% 13%

21% 19%

15% 19%

26%

11% 14%

31%

37% 39%

38%

44% 43% 43% 42%

51%

60%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2015

% of

res

pond

ents

off

erin

g pr

ecis

ion

serv

ices

mak

ing

a pr

ofit

Soil Sampling

Single Variable Rate Application

Multi Variable Rate Application

Satellite Imagery

Yield Monitor Data Analysis

Total Precision Package

2015 Base: 261

Erickson & Widmar, 2015

Summary

• UAVs and drones • Automated equipment • Data and information technologies

Terry Griffin Cropping Systems Economist twgriffin@ksu.edu 501.249.6360 @SpacePlowboy

Would love to hear from you about your thoughts!