Global food security and nutrition landscape

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Shenggen Fan, May 2015

Rethinking the global food system

Shenggen Fan Director General | International Food Policy Research Institute

DGIS webinar May 26, 2015


Key messages

!  Despite progress, multiple burdens of malnutrition persist

!  The global food system is vulnerable to critical challenges

!  A rethinking of the global food system is needed

!  The Netherlands has a key role to play


Hidden Hunger Index (micronutrient deficiencies)

Multiple burdens of malnutrition persist Estimated prevalence of undernutrition in

children under-5, 2011 (%)

Source: WHO, UNICEF, and World Bank 2011, Global Nutrition Report 2014

Prevalence of overweight and obese children under-5 (%)

Source: de Onis, et al. 2010 Note: Asia excludes Japan; Developed Countries includes Japan

3

6

9

12

15

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Africa Asia Developed Developing

Source: Muthayya et al. 2014

0

10

20

30

40

SSA SA SEA LAC

Stunting

Underweight


The global food system is vulnerable to critical challenges


Current / future challenges to global food security and nutrition

!  Urbanization & rising incomes, leading to diet changes

!  Growing land and water constraints

!  Weakening comparative advantage of agriculture

!  Climate change and higher frequency / intensity of extreme weather events

!  Rising agriculture-related risks to health and food safety scandals

!  Food-fuel competition


Source: OECD-FAO 2014

Change in consumption, 2011-13 to 2023 (%)

Global food demand expected to rise 60% by 2050 (FAO 2012)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Urban Rural

Source: Data from UN 2014

World population (billions)

Urbanization and rising incomes, leading to diet changes

Urban population to grow 75%

(2010-50)

GDP per capita (2005 PPP $US in ‘000s)

Source: Data from USDA-ERS 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Poultry Pork Beef Sheep Fish Wheat Coarse grains

Rice

Developed Developing

0

5

10

15

2000 2010 2020 2030

LAC Asia Africa Developing


People living in water stress, 2005 and 2030 (millions of people)

Arable land per capita (ha in use per person)

Source: WRI 2013, Farming First 2015

1950 2000 2050 Year

LAND

WATER Ratio of withdrawals to supply, 2013

Growing land and water constraints

Source: Bayer Scientific Magazine 2014

0.51 ha 0.27 ha 0.2 ha


Weakening comparative advantage of agriculture Declining farm size

0 20 40 60 80 100

WORLD

SSA

MENA

Yemen

Morrocco

Ivory Coast

Iran

Egypt

Burkina Faso

Algeria

Source: FAO 2014 Note: Most recent data on holdings used; Data for Algeria in 2001, Burkina Faso in 1993, Egypt in

2000, Iran in 2003; Ivory Coast in 2001; Morocco in 1996; Yemen in 2002

Share of farm size less than 2 ha (%)


Increasing challenge from climate change

Impact of climate change on mean crop yield

Source: WRI 2013, IPCC 2014, World Bank 2013

Needed: 14% in crop yield per decade

Happening: 20% in global cereal yields by 2050


Rising agriculture-related risks to health

Human health increasingly

affected by intense food production

Affects smallholders’ ability to undertake more

productive and innovative activities

Food safety risks •  Unregulated food production

•  Increasing proximity of industrial and agricultural activities

•  E.g. milk and rice contamination

Picture source: ILRI 2013

Animal-borne diseases

Source: ILRI 2012


A rethinking of the global food system is needed


Rethinking the global food system

Food security is mainly a supply problem

Sustainable intensification with more output

Small(holder) is always beautiful

Self-sufficiency is beneficial

Food losses and waste do not really matter

Food systems are relatively safe

Global governance dominated by North and UN

OLD Accessibility issues are major problems

Sustainable intensification with a focus on nutrition

Context specificity matters

Open, transparent, and fair global trade provides more gains

Food losses and waste matter greatly

Safety of food systems is increasingly at risk

Emerging economies now play a bigger role

NEW

No attention to gender Gender has key role in agriculture


1.  Invest in agric. R&D to produce more with less

2.  Transform smallholder agriculture

3.  Fix the fundamentals: e.g. marketing, infrastructure

4.  Empower women in agriculture

5.  Facilitate open, transparent and fair trade

6.  Strengthen partnerships, esp. with new players

Pathways for rethinking the global food system


1. Invest in agric. R&D to produce more with less

Expand agric. R&D to promote a food system that is

•  Nutritious and healthy

•  Inclusive, esp. of women

•  Climate smart and resource efficient

•  Sustainable and resilient

Advance frontiers for sustainable intensification and nutrition-sensitive technologies

•  E.g. Breeding high yielding, climate-ready, high-nutrient crop varieties (biofortification)

High-iron and high-zinc rice

Solar-powered drip irrigation

Drought tolerant rice

Stem rust resistant wheat

Laser land leveling Nano technology food testing

Picture sources: IRRI, New Agriculturist, and Zen Gardner


•  Context matters—small is not beautiful at all costs

•  Support smallholders to MOVE UP or MOVE OUT

2. Transform smallholder agriculture


!  Promote land rights and efficient land markets

!  Enhance risk-management, mitigation, and adaptation strategies

!  Support efficient, inclusive & safe food value chains

!  Develop young farmers

!  Scale up productive cross-sector social safety nets

Transform smallholder agriculture Policies to help smallholders move up


Ensure food prices reflect full costs and benefits of natural resource use !  Subsidies that encourage overuse of resources and inputs like those in water,

energy, and fertilizers must be phased out

!  Food prices should also reflect costs of carbon emission and costs of health externalities

Develop rural infrastructure !  Improving roads, rail, & electricity can reduce # of hungry by

57m and avoid malnourishment of 4m children in 15 years (Rosegrant et al. 2015)

!  Access to WASH are strongly linked to child stunting reduction (Smith & Haddad 2014)

Improve access to ICTs !  Providing commodity price information to farmers = higher prices, income, and

consumption (Torero 2014)

3. Fix the fundamentals, e.g. marketing, infrastructure, access to ICTs


!  Gender equality in agriculture leads to •  Higher agricultural output; productivity gains

•  Reduced hunger and malnutrition, esp. for next generation

•  Improved rural livelihoods

!  Examples of interventions •  Strengthen land rights

•  Improve access to inputs and credit

•  Provide agricultural training and information

4. Empower women in agriculture

Gender inequality leads to inefficient allocation of resources

Picture source: Farming First and FAO 2014


5. Facilitate open, transparent, and fair trade

!  Eliminate distortionary trade policies •  Harmful trade policies e.g. import tariffs and export

bans hurt the poor and hinder efficiency of agricultural markets

!  Improve targeting of subsidies •  Resources can fund public goods and

support nutritious food production

!  Create global and regional grain reserves •  Located in poor food importing countries, e.g. Horn of Africa

Picture source: IFPRI


Integrate aid and trade

0

100

200

300

400

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SSA

LAC

Asia

Inward FDI flows to developing countries (Current US$, billions)

Net ODA received, developing countries (2012 US$, billions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SSA

LAC

Asia

Data source: World Bank, 2015 Data source: UNCTAD, 2015

Returns on investments in agric. R&D in Africa large, yet FDI lags behind

Pray and Nagarajan 2013


!  Global food security and nutrition challenges have become complex

!  Tackling these challenges requires working together, bringing in different expertise

!  Partnerships are essential •  Private sector, emerging economies •  Global and national development agencies •  Universities and research institutions in North and

South

6. Strengthen partnerships


!  One of the top 5 exporters of agricultural products

!  Agricultural sector is knowledge driven (WUR, RIVM, Universities, etc.)

!  Strong collaboration between government, universities, research centers, and private sector

!  Strong expertise in many areas incl. water, climate change, logistics, breeding, interdisciplinary approaches, etc.

The Netherlands plays a key role


!  Increase partnerships with private sector •  Requires sound legal and regulatory framework that boosts (and

monitors) private sector’s engagement

•  Encourage private sector to view agriculture and food system as a business (knowledge sharing with Dutch agribusinesses like Unilever and DSM)

!  Promote greater collaboration with universities and research institutions •  Scale up new approaches to capacity building in higher education

and research

•  Partnership between Wageningen University and developing country universities, IFPRI/CGIAR could have high payoffs

Further enhancing partnership with the Netherlands