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WWF Japan’s Energy Vision Energy Scenario Proposal for Decarbonizing Japan Naoyuki Yamagishi Leader, Climate and Energy Group WWF Japan

3 February 2014

IISSEEPP –– GGoo 110000%% RReenneewwaabbllee CCoommmmuunniittiieess

© Global Warming Images / WWF-Canon

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“How can we achieve 100% Renewable in Japan?”

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We did our homework – Four studies to examine 100% RE in Japan

Part I Energy

Efficiency

Part II Renewables

Part III Cost Analysis

Part IV Power Grid

July 2011

November 2011

March 2013

September 2013

Energy Scenario Proposal for Decarbonizing Japan

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A Relatively Simple Vision

2012   2020   2030   2040   2050  

Reduced  Demand   Business  As  Usual  

Nuclear  

1.  Cutting energy demand through massive energy savings

2.  Phasing out nuclear 3.  Increase the supply of RES

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“We need much more energy!”

Part I Energy

Efficiency

July 2011

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No, we don’t: We can halve the energy consumption.

0  

50,000  

100,000  

150,000  

200,000  

250,000  

300,000  

350,000  

400,000  

1990   2000   2010   2020   2030   2040   2050  

1,00

0  TO

E

Final  Energy  Consumption  in  WWF  Scenario

WWF  BAU  Historical  

Final Energy Consumption will be reduced to about half of the 2008 level

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“Do We have Enough renewables in Japan?”

Part II Renewables

November 2011

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Yes, we have.

0  

50  

100  

150  

200  

250  

300  

350  

400  

2008   2020   2030   2040   2050  

MTOE

PV  on  vehcles  

Solar  Thermal  

Biomass  

Wind  

PV  

Geothermal  

Hydro  

Nuclear  

Gas  

Oil  

Coal  

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Simulation of Electricity Demand-Supply 24 hours / 365 days

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22

GWh

Hours

Simulated dynamics of hourly electricity supply (example of 3 days - May 23 to 25)

Geothermal Hydro Biomass Wind PV Discharging BAT

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“Isn’t is going to be ridiculously expensive?”

Part III Cost Analysis

March 2013

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Not quite. Maybe a bit in the first stage. But it pays off.

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Uni

t: T

rilli

on J

PY

Cost Ratios to GDP (5-year Avg per GDP)

GDP (Trillion JPY) CapEx raitio to GDP OpEx ratio to GDP Net ratio to GDP

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“Can Japanese power grid accommodate that much of Renewables?”

Part IV Power Grid

September 2013

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Yes, it can. If we invest in it early.

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A couple of things we need….

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We need to Aim for It. We need Targets

2020 2030 2040 2050 To 2008 -21.0% -33.9% -42.8% -51.8%

Targets for Energy Efficiency (Final Energy Consumption)

Targets for Renewables (% of electricity)

2008 2020 2030 2040 2050 Share in Electricity excl fuel use 11% 29% 54% 81% 100% Share in Electricity incl fuel use 11% 32% 63% 87% 100%

Targets for Renewable Fuel and Heat (% of non-electricity energy)

2008 2020 2030 2040 2050 Share in Fuel and Heat 1% 15% 38% 56% 73%

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Ambitious CO2 Emission Reduction

0  

200  

400  

600  

800  

1,000  

1,200  

1,400  

1990 2008 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mt-

CO

2

BAU Scenario

WWF Scenario

-25% -58% -83% -100%

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Also, we need to doubt our ordinary thinking.

Geothermal

Hydro

Biomass Wind

PV

Battery

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22

GWh

Hours

(example of May 23)

Fossil Fuel and Nuke Centric Renewable Centric

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World is what we make of it.

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Supplemental Slides –  In case, you are interested.

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Electricity only – without heat/fuel use

0  

200  

400  

600  

800  

1,000  

1,200  

2008   2020   2030   2040   2050  

TWh

Wind  

PV  

Biomass  

Geothermal  

Hydro  

Nuclear  

Gas  

Oil  

Coal  

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Electricity only – with heat/fuel use

0  

200  

400  

600  

800  

1,000  

1,200  

2008   2020   2030   2040   2050  

TWh Wind  for  fuel  

PV  for  fuel  

Wind  

PV  

Biomass  

Geothermal  

Hydro  

Nuclear  

Gas  

Oil  

Coal