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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude
Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe
Co-Chairs IPCC Working Group I
Switzerland and China
Overview:Climate Change 2013
The Physical Science Basis
Warming of the climate systemis unequivocal
IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. S
PM
.1b,
IP
CC
201
4, F
ig.
1.1
Ano
mal
y (°
C)
rela
tive
to
1961
-199
0
Warming of the climate systemis unequivocal
En
erg
y C
onte
nt (
102
1 Jo
ule
)
1980 1990 2000 2010
300
200
0
100
-1001970
70 mill.TWh
IPC
C 2
014,
SY
R F
ig. 1
.2
(Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA)
+30%
2014
The concentrations of CO2 have increased to levels
unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
1000 years before present
CO
2 C
once
ntra
tions
(pp
m)
IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. S
PM
.7,
IPC
C 2
014,
Fig
. S
PM
.6
Global mean surface temperature change from 1986-2005
Further warming will increase the likelihood of
severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for
people and ecosystems.
IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. S
PM
.8,
IPC
C 2
014,
Fig
. S
PM
.7
Further warming will increase the likelihood of
severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for
people and ecosystems.
Change in average surface temperature (1986-2005 to 2081-2100)
RCP8.5
IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. S
PM
.8,
IPC
C 2
014,
Fig
. S
PM
.7
Change in average precipitation (1986-2005 to 2081-2100)
RCP8.5
Further warming will increase the likelihood of
severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for
people and ecosystems.
RCP 2.6 (annual) RCP 8.5 (annual)
IPCC 2013: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
Changes in South Europe/Mediterranean (2081-2100)
Further warming will increase the likelihood of severe,
pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.
IPC
C 2
013,
TF
E.2
, F
ig.
2
+19 cm
+63 cm
Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean
acidification.
IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.7
c
Budget for the 2°C target:790 bill t C
CO2 emissions until 2014*:−545 bill t C
CO2 emissions in 2014*: 10.1 bill t C
Remaining emissions:245 bill t C
* up
date
d fr
om I
PC
C 2
013,
WG
I S
PM
Limiting climate change would require substantial and
sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which,
together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks.