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Understanding the Performance of Integrated Conservation and Development

and Making it Fit for the Future

‘Theory of Change’

17th-18th September 2013

Alastair Bradstock - IIED

Theory of Change

Approaches to project management have

encouraged managers to focus on inputs,

activities and outputs, but the need to be

clear about outcomes was, and still is, much

less apparent

This is changing and a ‘theory of change’ is a

tool than can help us make that transition

Being busy does not always generate results!

Theory of Change

A theory of change” is i) a coherent set

of ideas that describe what the change

should be, ii) how a change process

occurs, iii) what makes it happen, iv) what

has to happen for the intended result/

outcome to be reached, v) who needs to

be involved, vi) whose interests are at

stake, and vii) what the result/ outcome of

a change process should be

Theory of Change

Donor community is increasingly interested

in it

They see it as trying, amongst other things, to

improve the rigour of the planning process to

design better projects to generate results

Some now ask for evidence to demonstrate

that a TOC is tried and tested to ensure that

tax payers’ get value for money (VFM)

Theory of Change

OUTCOME

(result)

(indicators)

Short-term

(changes in)

• Attitudes

• Skills

• Knowledge

• Motivation

• Awareness

Indicative

main

ACTIVITIES

Investment

• Workshop

• Pubs

• Training

Intended

OUTPUTS

Deliverables

• Trained staff

• Pubs diss

• Capacity dev

OUTCOME

(result)

(indicators)

Medium-term

(changes in)

• Behaviour

• Practices

• Policies

• Procedures

Theory of Change

How do you develop a TOC?

It’s a multi-stakeholder process

Before you start, you need to understand

how your country ‘ticks’ (political economy)

You need to know how change happens

Theory of Change

Understanding the context

Key issues for you to consider regarding ICD:

Who are the key national stakeholders that

engage with ICD? Does it have a champion(s)

– detractors?

Are there others (UN bodies, multi-laterals,

bi-laterals, civil society etc) doing ICD?

What are the factors preventing – enabling

ICD?

Theory of Change

It is key to assemble the right people to

develop your TOC

The right people are those who are involved

in implementing IDC. You need them to take

part in the planning process and to commit to

the process

Theory of Change

Once you have assembled your TOC team,

you need to outline your:

‘Intended Outcome’

Results and Resources Framework

Before we go further let’s remind

ourselves of the difference between:

Outcomes and Outputs

Results and Resources FrameworkWhat is an intended outcome and why do we need

one?

‘It tells you what success – achievement will

look like’

Also ...

‘You can’t develop: indicators, baselines and

targets without having one!’

Results and Resources Framework

Some examples of outcome statements:

Nation’s children have better access to

health care

Job opportunities for youth improved

Small-scale peri-urban farmers have better

access to input markets

Primary school learning outcomes for

children are improved

Results and Resources Framework

Suggested outcome statement

‘ICD working effectively at Bwindi for people &

wildlife’

Indicator: Increased share of gorilla permit

revenues are available for the community

Indicator: monies reach a larger number of

community members

Results and Resources Framework

Outcome indicators

They outline the key characteristics of

what your ‘intended outcome’ will look like

Results and Resources Framework

Some examples of outcome indicators:

OS: Nation’s children have better access to

health care

OI: Per cent of rural children visit a health

centre at least twice a year

OS: Job opportunities for youth improved

OI: Per cent of school leavers in full-time

employment

Results and Resources Framework

(cont) examples of outcome indicators:

OS: Small-scale peri-urban farmers have better

access to markets

OI: Number of farmers accessing fertilizer and

seed markets

OS: Primary school learning outcomes for

children are improved

OI: Per cent of Grade 6 students scoring 70% or

more on maths test

Results and Resources Framework

Group Work on Indicators

Results and Resources FrameworkWhat is a baseline?

‘The baseline is the first measurement of

an indicator and it tells us where we are

now in relation to the outcome we are

trying to achieve’

Results and Resources FrameworkWhat is a target?

‘A target is what the situation is expected

to be at the end of a programme or

activity’

Outcome Indicator Baseline Targets

Results and Resources Framework

For each indicator you then need to outline

what activities and outputs are required to

bring about the change in attitudes and

behaviour to achieve them.

Your theory of change

Theory of Change

OUTCOME

(result)

(indicators)

Short-term

(changes in)

• Attitudes

• Skills

• Knowledge

• Motivation

• Awareness

Indicative

main

ACTIVITIES

Investment

• Workshop

• Pubs

• Training

Intended

OUTPUTS

Deliverables

• Trained staff

• Pubs diss

• Capacity dev

OUTCOME

(result)

(indicators)

Medium-term

(changes in)

• Behaviour

• Practices

• Policies

• Procedures

Results and Resources Framework‘1’ ‘2’

% of MOF budget Indicators Planning guidelines

allocated to ICD incorporating ICD

Change in MOF Changes Min of planning accept that

understanding of the in attitudes & current guidelines not fit for

economic case for behaviour purpose & need to be

ICD revised to include ICD

issues

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Research report on ICD Outputs Report outlining how current

the economic benefits planning guidelines consider

of ICD ICD issues

Results and Resources Framework

Output(s) for indicator #1

Activities for indicator #1

Time completed: xx/yy/2013-4

Responsibility: A N Other