Transfer of transport planning policies from developed to developing nations

Transfer of Transport Planning Policies from Developed to

Developing Nations

Tony PlumbeITS Seminar

4 March 2015

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Introduction

Caveats: Much diversity within both developed and developing nations

Making gross and maybe ill-founded generalisations

Title contains a patronising bias: developed to developing nations

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Introduction

Will concentrate on 4 areas:

Policy transfer generically Urban transport planning and policiesEconomic appraisal policiesRural transport policies

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Policy Transfer Generically

What is meant by policy transfer?

Dolowitz & Marsh (1996) “a process in which knowledge about policies, administrative arrangements and institutions in one time and/or place is used in the development of policies, administrative arrangements and institutions in another time and/or place”

(Political Studies, 44 (2), 343-357)

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Policy Transfer Generically: Dolowitz & Marsh Framework

1. Why engage in policy transfer?

Learn from others and leap ahead ; risk aversionResponding to policy ‘promoters’Uncertainty re goals, political support or organisational requirementsInfluence exerted by national and transnational agencies

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2. Who is involved in the policy transfer process?

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2. Who is involved in the policy transfer process?

Bureaucrats and civil servantsPoliticians and political partiesPressure groupsPolicy entrepreneursExperts and consultantsThink TanksEducational institutionsPrivate firmsTransnational corporationsFederal/central government and multilateral institutions


3. What is transferred?

Goals )Ideologies ) Relatively simple to transferIdeas )Attitudes )ContentInstruments )Programs ) Relatively difficult to transferInstitutions ) Negative lessons


4. What are the different degrees of transfer?

Gradations :-

CopyingEmulationCombination/hybridisation/

synthesisInspiration


5. What facilitates or restricts the policy transfer process?

Resources available: personnel, time, finance‘Search areas’ chosenLimited information availableExtent of past commitments in policy environmentConfidence & security in posts of individual decision-makers


6. How successful is the policy that was transferred?How is a policy transfer demonstrated?Less well articulated:At pre-decision stage: did policy learning influence debate?At decision-making stage: did policy transfer influence option selection, design &/or appraisal?At post-decision stage: did policy transfer influence operational efficiency, policy outcomes & future learning processes?

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7. From where are lessons drawn?Local : neighbouring area or

within nationNationalInternational

Mediated by language, culture, constitutional system, geographical

proximity & economic structure12

Urban Transport Planning & Policies

Dimitriou: Urban Transport Planning ProcessInvolves:1. Observing current travel behaviour2. Adopting hypotheses re the relationships

between land use & movement3. Testing these hypotheses as a basis for

making estimates of future travel demand

4. Ultimately recommending additional transport capacity

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TransportInventories

Origin & Destination

Surveys

Planning Studies

Traffic Forecasts

PlanningForecasts

Network Planning

Revised TransportNetworks

Network Evaluation

Implementation Programme

Construction &Implementation

Revise Planning Forecasts


Travel Demand Modelling

Trip generation

Trip distribution

Modal split

Traffic assignment

Usually assumes essentially constant

travel behaviour, transport technology, land use, & land use/ traffic interaction


Urban Transport Planning Process Embodies certain attractive concepts

Extensive dependence upon simulation and quantification

Gives sense of comprehensiveness

Formality of approach based on principles of systems thinking

Adopts a set of procedures akin to a scientific approach to problem solving

Widely adopted so seen to be respectable & reliable

Urban Transport Planning & Policies: Transferability to Developing Nations?

1. Land use is zoned homogeneously

2. Belief urban transport problem is that of overcoming motorised traffic congestion

3a. Informal non-motorised and paratransitpublic transport do not warrant explicit consideration

3b. Propensity to neglect the pedestrian & motorcycle

4. Assumes that only slow gradual changes occur in variable affecting travel demand

- dealing with huge & rapidly changing cities

City Populations millions c2013Jakarta 26.0 Tokyo 37.1

Seoul 22.5 New York 20.5Delhi 22.2 Osaka 17.0Shanghai 20.9 Los Angeles 14.9

Manila 20.8 Moscow 15.5Karachi 20.7 Paris 10.8Sao Paulo 20.2 Nagoya 10.0Mexico City 19.5 London 8.6Cairo 17.8 Populations in recognised metro area of city

Beijing 17.7 & immediate suburbs outside the established

Mumbai 16.9 boundary of the city

Source: WorldAtlas.com/citypops.htm18

City Population Growth Rates

Source: The Context of Urban Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. https//www.citiesalliance.org/sites/citiesalliance.org/files


5. Predict and provide approach – more of the same

6. Drivers of transport demand not always the same in developing as developed nations

7. Transport’s influence on & serving development objectives is often different

- economic growth

- equity & affordability

- participatory involvement

- privatisation, deregulation, promotion of private sector, regulatory bodies

8. Data availability and quality


9. Rely on expensive and extensive modelling

10. Organisation of cities

11. Decision-making

Economic Appraisal Policies

Traditionally been extensive applied given tight resource constraints and at behest of international development agencies

Traditional forms: NPV, NPV/K, IRR & CBRNote interest in absolute returns (NPV), & in

efficiency of use of capital (IRR)

But not GVA

Performed at financial and economic prices(In anglophone countries at least; francophone countries

sometime use the effects method)

Historically seen further development into use of distributional weightings, and shadow pricing


Complex investment appraisal, maintenance strategy, & even emissions models been developed: HDM4 (Highway Development & Management Model)

Like UK DMRB + TUBA + a Road Deterioration Model rolled into one

Cost Effectiveness Analysis

Time Values: culturally bound. Under- and unemployed resources. Concept will transfer but not values

Valuation of accident costs (value of life): 1.5 – 2.5% of GDP p.a. lost to road accidents. Again concept will transfer but not values. Relationship to improving a road may be perverse

Elasticities: scarce in developing nations


Pricing policies and cost recovery- full cost recovery & elimination of subsidies pushed by IMF & World Bank- fuel subsidies

Discriminant pricing policies: rail & air transfer of principles okay

Road pricing policies

Economic appraisal policies apply equally to (ex-post) evaluation which is generally performed better with valid ‘with’ vs ‘without’ comparisons rather than ‘after’ vs ‘before’

Rural Transport Policies

Much discordance between developed and developing nations so scope for transfer is limited

Rural Transport policies in developed nations concentrate on:

Accessibility Higher costs of motorised rural transport Social exclusion and mobility of the elderly Operation of community transport services

or infrequent rural buses Quality of internet services as substitute

for rural mobility

Rural Transport Policies

Some developed nation rural transport policies resonate in developing countries – accessibility, affordability & multi-purpose vehicles

But much of focus of rural transport policies in developing nations is very different:

Interplay of transport with economic activity especially agriculture but also other rural economic enterprise

Policies re rural non-motorised transport prominent: walking, cycling, trails, pedestrian stream/river crossings (intermediate and labour intensive technologies)

Adoption of participatory engagement of local communities for effective planning and implementation

The advent of the mobile (cell) phone

Opportunities for Transport Policy Transfers from Developing to Developed Nations

Paratransit especially to rural areas

Policies re the distribution of benefits

(Growth & equity)

Understanding the links between transport policies and economic development

Road Funds

Conclusions

Yes: IdeasInstrumentsNegative lessonsSome analytical techniquesSome attitudes

Be Wary: InstitutionsAssumptions embodied in

computerised modelling or approaches

Cultures & anything perceived as ‘foreign’

Decision-making processes

Environment

Transfer of transport planning policies from developed to developing nations