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Tornadoes in Europe Risk and vulnerability assessment
Bogdan Antonescu*
David M. Schultz
Geraint Vaughan
Kelsey MulderUniversity of Manchester, UK
*AXA Research Fund
Deadly European tornadoes 1091–2013
people
per year(2004–2013)
What is the spatial distribution
of these tornadoes?
How many tornadoes occur
each year in Europe?
European Severe Weather Database
tornadoes reported
between 1800–2013
over Europe with QC0+
Tornadoes in Europe
Tornadoes in Europe
before 1939
tornadoes were reported in Europe
between 1800–2013 6258
France Germany
Europe
torn
ado
re
po
rts
% fro
m th
e to
tal n
um
be
r o
f to
rna
do r
ep
ort
s
torn
ado r
eport
s
tornadoes were reported
in Europe between 2004–2013
2338
Nomenclature of
Territorial Units for
Statistics (NUTS)
Bayesian hierarchical models approach
𝑝𝑘 𝜃 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝜃/𝑥𝑘
𝑛𝑘|𝑁𝑘 , 𝑝𝑘 𝜃 ∼ 𝐵𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑘, 𝑝𝑘
𝑁𝑘|𝜆 ∼ 𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝜆𝑎𝑘
𝑝 𝜃, 𝜆, 𝑁1, … , 𝑁𝐾|𝑛1, … , 𝑛𝐾
∝
𝑘=1
𝐾
𝑝 𝑛𝑘|𝑁𝑘, 𝜃 𝑝 𝑁𝑘|𝜆 𝑝 𝜃 𝑝 𝜆
𝑒𝑥𝑝 𝜃 ~𝑁 𝜇, 𝜎2 ~N 0.5, 10000
𝜆~ 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑚𝑎 𝑞, 𝑟 ~𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑚𝑎(0.001, 0.001)
day with favorable tornado parameters (nT)
using the thresholds from Brooks et al. (2003)
for CAPE, LCL, lapse rate, shear
2004–2013 ERA Interim
0.75ox0.75o
1200 UTC35 levels
NCAR/NCEP reanalysis
1997–1999
1.915ox1.875o
1800 UTC28 levels
day with favorable tornado parameters (nT)
using the thresholds from Brooks et al. (2003)
for CAPE, LCL, lapse rate, shear
log 𝜆 = 𝛼0+ 𝛼1𝑛Explanatory model
2004–2013 ERA Interim
0.75ox0.75o
1200 UTC35 levels
NCAR/NCEP reanalysis
1997–1999
1.915ox1.875o
1800 UTC28 levels