The Future of Mobility:

Is Personal Car Ownership a Thing

of the Past?#EnergyChat Webinar

#EnergyChat Webinar

How will mobility be delivered in 2030? Will alternative fuels like electricity or biofuels finally be real competitors to oil? Will rapid urbanization and new generational demographics make

personal car ownership a thing of the past? Or will autonomous cars or trucks dominate the roadways?

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#EnergyChat Webinar: Moderator

Moderator: Jesse Jenkins, Featured Writer and Digital Strategy Consultant theEnergyCollective.comTwitter: @JesseJenkins

Jesse is a researcher, analyst, and writer with expertise in energy and climate change, electric power systems, energy policy, and innovation policy. He is currently a Digital Strategy Consultant and Featured Columnist at TheEnergyCollective.com. He has published peer-reviewed papers in the journals Energy Policy and WIREs: Climate Change. Jesse has been awarded fellowships from the MIT Energy Initiative Energy and the National Science Foundation. Jesse worked previously as the Director of Energy and Climate Policy at the Breakthrough Institute and as a Policy and Research Associate at the Renewable Northwest Project.

Webinar Panelists:Wolfgang Warnecke, Ph.D.Chief Scientist Mobility, Shell Dr. Wolfgang Warnecke was appointed as Shell’s Chief Scientist for Mobility in May 2011. His expertise in all forms of mobility, vehicle technology, fuels and lubricants sees him advising on technology strategy, championing science, R&D and innovation, enhancing Shell’s technical reputation in the fast-changing area of mobility and looking ahead to future solutions. Wolfgang studied Mechanical Engineering at the Technical University of Hannover, specialising in automotive combustion engines, and gained a PhD in Automotive Engineering from Hamburg Tech. University in 1987. @Shell

Don MacKenzie, Ph.D.Assistant Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of WashingtonDon MacKenzie is an assistant professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at the University of Washington in Seattle. His research addresses the travel and charging behavior or electric vehicle owners, the environmental and social equity implications of shared-use transportation services, and the effects of vehicle automation on energy demand. He holds a PhD in Engineering Systems from MIT, and previously worked as a researcher on technical and policy issues spanning fuel cells, biofuels, and efficiency technologies in both the private and non-profit sectors.

Shwetha SurenderProgram Manager, Mobility | Frost & Sullivan| Automotive & TransportationLeading Frost & Sullivan’s mobility research with a particular expertise in:

– Urban Mobility & Transport Policy (including car sharing, electric vehicles, smart mobility, integrated mobility)

– Automotive Technologies & new business models, including EV’s, carsharing, ridesharing, taxi applications, ticketing & payment, and connectivity projects

– Integrated Mobility and associated technologies/behavioral or social change– New Mobility Schemes (including BRT, PRT, cycle hire)

Shell

THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY: IS PERSONAL CAR OWNERSHIP A THING OF THE PAST?

Energy Collective Webinar

November 4 2015

Wolfgang Warnecke, Chief Scientist, Mobility Shell Global Solutions (Deutschland) GmbH

November 4 2015 7

Shell

THE EVOLUTION OF THE WORLD’S ENERGY SYSTEM FROM 1800 TO TODAY

Shell

FUTURE MOBILITY: DRIVERS & TRENDS

NEW MOBILITY

ENVIRONMENT NEW VEHICLES LEGISLATION

ENERGY NEW CONSUMER VALUES

URBANISATION CHANGE IN TRANSPORTATION

COSTS & CONVENIENCE

GHG reductionZero smog emissions

Emission-free vehiclesBEV (PHEV)/FCEV

Noise reductionRemote drive

Sub ‚Smart‘ vehicles & pedelecsCombustion engine improvementsHybridisation

Worldwide harmonisation

Emission limits (Noise, Smog & GHG)Lights & brakes

SafetyTrade barriers

Gov. R&D funding

Crude oil endsMore gas

Advanced biofuelsRenewable hydrogen

Green electricityEmotional mobilityMobility on demandBike shareCar shareTravel time

Ageing population

New architecture (‘Live & Park‘)

Suburbanisation (USA)Urbanisation (Asia)

Open up new driveways

Traffic density

Online purchase behaviourIncrease in goods transportation

Reducing personal mileage

Refuelling convenience

Transport mile/vehicle Cost of ownership

‘Continous Online‘ demand & connectivity

Changing lifestyle(Remote work; Internet shopping etc)

Shell

DRIVETRAINS, FUELS AND LUBRICANTS ...… PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

?

10

12

Transport = Door-to-door Mobility• New Vehicles: BRT, EV,

High Speed Rail

• New Business Models: Vehicle Sharing, Car Pooling

• Inter- Connectivity: Inter-modality

• Urban Planning: Reallocation of street space

• Integrated Mobility: New technology enabled multi modal integration

Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage

Transport =Private Vehicle• Freedom

• Convenience

• Status

• Progress

• No Real Alternative

Gen Y

ConnectivityPopulation

Growth

Urbanization

Social Responsibility

Natural Resources

Pollution

Congestion

Globalization

Virtualization

Mobility Integration: Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage

13

Car On Demand, and Mobility on DemandThe true disruptive forces in Mobility are taking place via platforms linking supply & demand, a marketplace phenomenon; customers now expect mobility services on demand

Didi Taxi

CarsharingCar on

Demand RidesharingParking

IntegratedMobility

Rise of platforms matching supply and demand to reduce spare capacity and improve the user experience > Customers now expect on-demand solutions and are happy to use shared services.

Automation may affect light-duty vehicle energy consumption through numerous

mechanisms

@DonMackenzie9

Join the Conversation…

Follow along and share your

thoughts on Twitter at #EnergyChat

Submit your questions in the

GoToWebinarcontrol panel

#EnergyChat

Webinar Panelists:Wolfgang Warnecke, Ph.D.Chief Scientist Mobility, Shell Dr. Wolfgang Warnecke was appointed as Shell’s Chief Scientist for Mobility in May 2011. His expertise in all forms of mobility, vehicle technology, fuels and lubricants sees him advising on technology strategy, championing science, R&D and innovation, enhancing Shell’s technical reputation in the fast-changing area of mobility and looking ahead to future solutions. Wolfgang studied Mechanical Engineering at the Technical University of Hannover, specialising in automotive combustion engines, and gained a PhD in Automotive Engineering from Hamburg Tech. University in 1987. @Shell

Don MacKenzie, Ph.D.Assistant Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of WashingtonDon MacKenzie is an assistant professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at the University of Washington in Seattle. His research addresses the travel and charging behavior or electric vehicle owners, the environmental and social equity implications of shared-use transportation services, and the effects of vehicle automation on energy demand. He holds a PhD in Engineering Systems from MIT, and previously worked as a researcher on technical and policy issues spanning fuel cells, biofuels, and efficiency technologies in both the private and non-profit sectors.

Shwetha SurenderProgram Manager, Mobility | Frost & Sullivan| Automotive & TransportationLeading Frost & Sullivan’s mobility research with a particular expertise in:

– Urban Mobility & Transport Policy (including car sharing, electric vehicles, smart mobility, integrated mobility)

– Automotive Technologies & new business models, including EV’s, carsharing, ridesharing, taxi applications, ticketing & payment, and connectivity projects

– Integrated Mobility and associated technologies/behavioral or social change– New Mobility Schemes (including BRT, PRT, cycle hire)

Special Thanks to our Sponsor

#EnergyChat