Authors

Michelle A. Sherwood, Yu Takeuchi, Worrel A.Diedrick, Kathy M. Dalip

Vyjayanthi F. Lopez, Deshaune Martin, Jacqueline M. Spence and Dahlia Fletcher

,

The Beet Armyworm Pest Forecast Model: A Decision-

Making Tool for Pest Management in Jamaica

Beet Armywom outbreak in 2009-2012 FAO-TCP-3401 “Strengthening the National Beet armyworm

(Spodoptera exigua) Programme” was approved in 2012 Two Years Oct 2012 to Oct 2014 Valued at US$ 213,000 Implemented: by MOA&F, R&D (Bodles) / Rural Agricultural Development

Authority (RADA) Beneficiaries: farmers of St. Elizabeth, Partners: ACDI/VOCA (complementary activities FFS, ODK training) Project Lead by TWG lead by Research and Development Division in

collaboration with RADA, Met. Office and ALMD.

ACDI/VOCA received a 4-year, $14 million award from USAID to implement the Jamaica Rural Economy and Ecosystems Adapting to Climate cHange (Ja-REEACH) program (formerly MAJIC program that focused on transforming Jamaica’s agriculture sector into a market-driven, competitive industry) http://www.acdivoca.org/site/ID/jamaica-ja-reeach

INTRODUCTION

C

COMPONENTS OF THE PROGRAMME

Three components, PFS comes under component 1

(1)    Monitoring and surveillance programme for beet armyworm strengthened and a monitoring tool established and institutionalized in appropriate agencies Evaluate and improve data collection and analysis

programme Formulate a forecasting tool including assessment

of GIS requirements Review institutional arrangements for operating

the forecasting tool Train 10 personnel from key agencies to maintain

the tool

Activities Progress to date

• Development and establishment of BAW forecasting tool (FT):

Expert consultant recruited to develop FT based on• Analysis of weather patterns in

Jamaica• Development of a Degree-day

Model• Pest Population Dynamics

One Mission completed (2013)1. Evaluation of information, IT and

institutional capacitiesSecond mission (August 2014)

2. Installation of selected FT and training of 15 national personnel in R&D, RADA, Met. Office, ICT, ALMD, PQ were trained

3. the use and maintenance of selected FT

Third Mission (July 20-24, 2015) 4. Final workshop & institutionalization of FT

FAO Consultant Pest Forecasting

Specialist - Ms. Yu Takeuchi

DEGREE DAY MODEL

The total amount of heat required between the upper and lower thresholds for an organism to develop from one point to another in its lifecycle is calculated in Units called Degree days

Data generated by R&D and NCU under local conditions and data gaps filled by published data from North America

BAW needs egg – adult 516.65 DD Lower threshold is14.9 C Upper threshold

FORECAST DEGREE DAYS

Degree days recorded during April and May for 2010 to 2013 ranged from 1289.01 to 1850.14 which means there were 2-3 BAW lifecycle per month. This resulted in outbreaks and flare up of the population during these periods. This data provides a guide for warning farmers when to expect an outbreak using degree days. June i

2010 2011 2012 2013 20150

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1440.881289.01 1328.39302119195 1360.88294237625 1371.12647909421

1850.13648238574

1648.844885656851740.4005304487 1753.92044237625 1778.22873263427

2265.43715392684

2043.207250793542168.12635029736 2165.16874237911 2207.0392321148

Degree Days at Barton Isles during outbreak periods January - April, May & June 2010 to 2015

April May June

Deg

ree

days

at B

arto

n is

les

BAW POPULATION DURING PERIOD

AREA-WIDE MONITORING & SURVEILLANCE OF BEET ARMYWORM

Monitoring: Pest monitoring by RADA from 8 -10

locations across the affected areas in the Parish of St. Elizabeth using ODK App.

Used to determine when population exceed the damage threshold of 5 larvae per plant or 1 larvae in 5 plant to guide timing of management programme

Same population data needed to validate BAW Pest Forecasting System (PFS) by comparing field populations against predictions of the BAW PFS

DECISION OPTIONS Pest management Strategy: The advisory may

No intervention required continue monitoring Interventions required: Dependent on pest population

& stage of pest Include information re the various Integrated

Pest Management components to be used e.g. Monitoring, Cultural, Mechanical, Biological and, Chemical to be applied in an environmentally friendly

and sustainable manner.

DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION

Once the degree day prediction is generated it can be shared with other institutions to develop advisories for farmers as to decision making re BAW

Advisories can then be prepared by the interpretation of the forecast and disseminated through various media to farmers for their action, Texting via phone Print or electronic media Weather report

THANK YOU