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Strengthening Farmer Adaptive Capacity through Farms of the Future Approach in Nyando, western Kenya

Philip Kimeli

CCAFS East Africa

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Background East Africa climate is rapidly changing Precipitation projection shows an increase in rainfall amounts

and variability (leading to floods, droughts, landslides) Average annual temperature will rise by between 1°C and

5°C, typically 1°C by 2020s and 4°C by 2100. Impacts of these changes - increased crop failures, pest and

disease outbreaks, water scarcity, livestock losses etc Farmers are already adapting to changing climate - marginal

changes and not transformational

In order to strengthen adaptive capacity and encourage transformative changes, farmers need to understand what their future climate is likely to be.

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Climate Analogues

Climate Analogues - sites that experience conditions with statistical similarity, in terms of current or future climate

Key variables - rainfall and temperature (30 years data). Other variables - soils, crops and socioeconomic

The analogue locates a site whose climate today is similar to the given future of a place of interest (i.e. where can we find today the future climate of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia?)

By 2100, there will be 30% novel climates under climate change, implying there are 70% of already existing climates sites!

Practical application of analogues is through the Farms of the Future (FotF) approach

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Farms of the Future Approach (FotF) The climate-analogue tool is used to connect farmers to their

possible future climates through farmer-to-farmer learning exchanges…FotF

Objectives of the FotF approach: Build on farmer-to-farmer exchanges to analogue sites to

improve adaptive capacity and support knowledge exchange, including technology transfer.

Improve understanding of local practices and available tools and resources to enable transformative change

Piloted in Lushoto (Tanzania) and Nyando (Kenya).

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Nyando is one of the CCAFS research sites

Research collaboration amongst researchers, local partners and farmers

Evaluate and maximize synergies across a portfolio of climate-smart agricultural interventions

Case Study: Nyando, Western Kenya

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Nyando is characterized by humid to sub-humid climate Subsistence farming - mixed rain fed crop-livestock farming

systems Low and erratic rainfall (900-1200mm annually) Small farm sizes (averaging <1 ha) High poverty rates High rate of HIV / AIDS Food insecurity (hungry 4mnths/yr)

Biophysical & Social Characteristics of Nyando

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FotF Process

Climate modelling

Planning workshop with AIS and farmers

Learning journey Farmers and AIS stakeholders

Participatory evaluation of learning journey & feedback sessions

Identify possible climate analogue sites/ learning opportunities

Share the lessons by showing their films to community

Facilitate farmer / stakeholder learning

Documentation (video & photography)

Learning journey & documentation of the lessons learned

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Identifying Nyando climate spatial analogues sites

Using rainfall and temperatures variables & socio-economic factors

Different seasons (MAM, OND and all year), several analogues maps were generated (9 maps)

Engagement with AIS to identify the best analogue map that is representative of Nyando future climate

The analogue sites identified were mainly semi-arid areas of western Kenya

This formed the farmer learning journey

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The Learning Journey

8 days 16 farmers (7 men and 9 women) 7 Agricultural Innovations Stakeholders

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Climate Resilient Innovations farmers learned

Soil and water managementTerraces, water harvesting structures, Zai pits

Agricultural and farm mechanization (tools and equipment)Maize sheller, boom sprayer machine mounted with planter

carrying seed and fertilizer (minimum tillage)

Agro processing and value additionsSolar drier, Groundnut roaster, peanut butter

machine

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Climate Resilient Innovations farmers learned

Livestock interventions Resilient breed (small ruminants) & feed management

Crop diversification and management Resilient crop varieties (groundnuts, sorghum) Better agronomic practices

Agro-forestry

Integration of fruit trees Institutional innovations

Community banks & SACCOs

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Farmer Reflections and Lessons Learned…1

Farmers explored future scenarios - encouraging forward-thinking as they prepare for their future climate.

Motivation to act, articulate demand for technical and financial support – SACCO, community bank, engagement of local govt and NGOs

Access to finance for risk

management

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Farmer Reflections and Lessons Learned…2

Social and cultural practices hinder adaptation - Access to & control over resources is critical for equitable adaptation

Adaptive capacity requires innovation - The ability and willingness to innovate is included as a key part of the adaptive capacity framework

Collective action & changes in decision-making to build resilience - The increased uncertainties created by a changing climate requires coordinated action

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Challenges Climate modeling and projections have inherent

uncertainties Women had to seek consent from husbands to participate in

learning journey and also to implement the innovations learned.

Implementing the innovations is a challenge due to lack of technical expertise Innovation require initial high investment capital and demands for intensive training i.e. bee keeping

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Conclusions

Farms of the Future Approach can enable farmers to learn and begin to read the world differently

It helps farmers think critically about their future and encourage them to start acting

The learning journey enabled farmers and AIS to better envision how their site-specific agricultural future might look

It facilitated exchange of knowledge through which strategies and farming information can be shared

Strengthening adaptive capacity will also require institutional support, extensive capacity building, structural and policy changes

16May 1, 2023

Thank youTo learn more about the tool and methodology, you can visit our homepage:

http://www.ccafs-analogues.org/tool/

http://www.ccafs-climate.org/data/