33
DOOMED TO FAIL OR BOUND TO SUCCEED? SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE GREEN ECONOMY AGENDA: REVISITED Achim Steiner Director, Oxford Martin School STEPS Centre Annual Lecture, Institute of Development Studies/ University of Sussex 15 May 2017

STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed? Sustainable Development and the Green Economy Agenda – Revisited

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

DOOMED TO FAIL OR BOUND

TO SUCCEED?

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

AND THE GREEN ECONOMY AGENDA:

REVISITED

Achim SteinerDirector, Oxford Martin School

STEPS Centre Annual Lecture, Institute of Development Studies/ University of Sussex

15 May 2017

Climate change

Antibiotic resistance Emerging viruses

Novel biotechnologies

Oil prices

Migrant crises

Inequality

FamineTerrorism Cybersecurity Financial Stability

Political upheaval

Air pollution

Nuclear proliferation

Environmental disasters

The Global ‘In-Tray’

There is clearly huge uncertainty…

The role of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis

Historically, far-right votes tend to increase in the years following systemic banking stress, and when depressed economic conditions are allowed to persist (Funke et al 2015, Bromhead et al 2012)

Globalisation, mass flows of humans and capital, and persistent inequality

• Capital has flowed ‘uphill’ to wealthy countries

• Import shocks have disrupted regional economies

• Immigration has not easily resulted in integration

Source: www.viewsoftheworld.net

What does the Anthropocene look like?

Source: Living Planet Report 2016

Climate Change

• Current CO2 concentrations are higher than they have been over the last 800,000 years• There is an established cause-effect chain from emissions to concentrations to temperatures

Global mean temperatures since 1850Global mean CO2 concentrations since 1850The use of the global carbon budget

Source: Ed Hawkins / www.pick-potsdam.de

Climate change is already contributing

New York Times

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought, Kelley et al, PNAS 2016

Rapidly shifting scientific & technological landscapes

Source: Techonomy, 2016

The result: Deepening political segmentation and polarisation

• Financial crises are policy failures, and repeated policy failures devalue traditional sources of authority (Krugman, NYT)

• Paradigm shifts bring complexity, blurring and unpredictability

• ‘Reactionary’ political movements arising globally are borne of a desire for control, simplicity, safety and order

• “People are talking to their governments using 21st Century technology, governments listen on 20th Century technology and respond with 19th Century policies” (Madeleine Albright)

SustainabilityDecarbonisation

The great challenge: managing transitions and complexity

Prolonged fiscal aftershocks

Dramatic technological change

Mass movement of people

OECD-FAO predicts that global agricultural production will only grow 1.5% annually over the next 10 years compared with 2.1% in the last decade.

Increasing crop production

increase the frequency of cropping (e.g. using

irrigation)

Sub-Saharan Africa currently has the world’s lowest cereal yields:1.25

tonnes/ha versus developed countries, developing Asia and Latin America which

all attain around 4 tonnes/ha

Agriculture uses 37% of global landmass

(excluding Antarctica)

Reducing waste

Agriculture accounts for 70% of all freshwater

drawn from rivers, lakes and aquifers

increase land use

increase yields

Around 30% of the food produced globally is wasted –around 1.3bn tonnes. Food

waste in high-income countries is dominated by consumer waste.

Food waste in developing countries is at the pre- and post-

harvest and processing stages due to spoilage

Food and Agriculture

‘Business as usual’: land use change

• More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850

• In 2000 cultivated systems cover 25% of Earth’s terrestrial surface

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, UNEP

• An estimated 23% of all usable land is degraded

• 20% of the world’s pasture and rangelands have been damaged

• 580m ha of forests have been degraded by logging and clearance, nearly 40% of this since 1975

World Water Requirements

Source: 2030 Water Resources Group, 2013

Around 20% of the world’s aquifers are being over-exploited

Global water withdrawals are projected to increase by 55% through 2050, due to growing demands from manufacturing (400%), thermal electricity generation (140%), and domestic use (130%)

An estimated 30% of global water withdrawals are lost through leakage

Energy demand is expected to increase by 32% by 2040, with global electricity demand growing by over 70%

Renewables are expected by the IEA to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity by the early 2030s

World Energy Requirements

Source: IEA, 2013

Exaj

ou

les

per

yea

r

Mill

ion

To

nn

es o

f O

il Eq

uiv

alen

t

Sustainable Development Goals

The SDGs are a powerful shared vision of development

They recognise the complexity of the challenge

They are universal, and they are integrated

The 2030 Agenda

• The SDGs are integrative: they promote economic development, social protection and environmental health

• A healthy, well-functioning environment is crucial for the health of human beings

• The SDGs are universal: they represent universal principles, standards and values applicable to all countries and all peoples

• National and global development is connected

• The 2030 Agenda is a fundamental shift from a growth-based economic model to a sustainable and equitable one

Green Economy Definitions

• Multiple green economy and green growth definitions have been developed, including the following: – UNEP: “A green economy is one that results in improved human well-

being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcity.” (UNEP, Green Economy Reports: A Preview, 2010, p. 4-5)

– OECD: ”Green growth means fostering economic growth and development while ensuring that natural assets continue to provide the resources and environmental services on which our well-being relies.” (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Towards Green Growth, 2011, p. 9)

– Green Economy Coalition: “An economy that provides better quality of life for all within the ecological limits of the planet” (Green Economy Coalition: http://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/)

Source: UNEP 2015

Envisioning a circular and green economy

Source: UNEP 2015

Resource decoupling: using less land, water, energy & materials to maintain economic growth

Impact decoupling: using resources wisely over their lifetime to reduce environmental impact

The Headwinds…particularly for SDG10: Inequality

• OECD employment: challenged by automation, (perceived effects of) immigration, and lack of economic resilience

• African employment: the transition from an agrarian economy

• Politically shifting sands: USA retreating, China engaging

• Aid fatigue – and the implication for climate victims

• And increasing questions over the role of traditional international policy pathways and their ability to effect change

The role of public policy

COP-21 in Paris is a legally binding treaty

Each country’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) of greenhouse gas emission reductions will be enacted through domestic mitigation measures

All countries must produce a Low Emission Development Strategy by 2020

Emissions

The Green Economy

• Achieving the SDGs opens up an economic prize of at least US$12 trillion by 2030 for the private sector, and potentially 2-3x more

• Over 50% of the prize is located in developing countries

Source: Business Commission Report, 2017

Job Creation and Business Opportunities from the Sustainable Development Goals

Product reformulation

Cattle intensification

Reducing packaging

waste

Technology in smallholder

farms

Reducing food waste in value

chain

Technology in large scale

farms

Low-income food markets

Restoring degraded land

Forest ecosystem

services

Micro-irrigation

Reducing consumer food

waste

Dietary switch

Sustainable aquaculture

Urban agriculture

US$405bn

US$365bn

US$265bn

US$220bn

US$205bn

US$180bn

US$140bn

US$125bn

US$105bn

US$85bn

US$85bn

US$65bn

US$55bn

US$40bn

Business opportunities from the SDGs

The dollar amount is the difference between an estimate of a business-as-usual scenario and the SDG scenario, in 2030. Source: Valuing the SDG Prize, 2017

Road safety equipment

Office sharing

Water & sanitation infrastructure

Municipal water leakage

Affordable housing

Autonomous vehicles

Public transport in urban areas

Smart metering

Energy efficiency -buildings

Cultural tourism

Car sharing

Internal combustion engine fuel efficiency

Building resilient cities

Electric and hybrid vehicles

US$1080bn

US$770bn

US$205bn

US$205bn

US$170bnUS$160bn

US$155bn

US$155bn

US$110bnUS$90bn

US$90bn

US$90bn

US$70bn

US$320bn

Business opportunities from the SDGs

The dollar amount is the difference between an estimate of a business-as-usual scenario and the SDG scenario, in 2030. Source: Valuing the SDG Prize, 2017

Timber buildings

US$40bn

Durable and modular buildings

US$40bn

Energy efficiency –non energy intensive

industries

Mine rehabilitation

Shared infrastructure

Energy access

Circular economy -automotive

End-use steel efficiency

Circular economy -electronics

Local content in extractives

Expansion of renewables

Green chemicals

Resource recovery

Energy efficiency –energy-intensive

industriesCarbon capture and storage

Circular economy – appliances and

machinery

US$810bn

US$605bn

US$365bn

US$210bn

US$315bn

US$195bn

US$175bn

US$150bn

US$150bnUS$130bn

US$120bn

US$120bn

US$65bn

US$525bn

Business opportunities from the SDGs

The dollar amount is the difference between an estimate of a business-as-usual scenario and the SDG scenario, in 2030. Source: Valuing the SDG Prize, 2017

Energy storage

US$260bn

Additive manufacturing

US$125bn

Grid interconnection

US$35bn

China’s emergence as a ‘global leader’

• China and the low carbon economy– 2016 investment in renewable energy: $88bn

– 1 new wind turbine being installed every hour

– Beijing set to implement the world’s largest emissions trading system in 2017

– China’s emerging green bonds market could deliver $230bn over next 5 years

– 2016 China’s foreign investment spend on renewable projects: $32bn in 2016

(Source: N Stern, Financial Times 2017)

Davos 2017: Xi Jinping’s speech defends global trade and the Paris climate agreement and calls for stronger international co-operation to meet today’s global problems

Ecological Civilisation

• A national strategy for innovative, concerted, green, open and inclusive development

• 18th National Congress, 2012: China must incorporate the idea of ecological civilization into all aspects of economic, political, cultural and social progress

• An ethical morality and ideology which realizes harmonious co-existence with nature and sustainable development reflecting the progress of civilization

Cause for optimism: current progress on the SDGs

• Maintaining the present pathways, by 2030…– Extreme poverty will be eliminated across much of Asia

– Global maternal mortality will be reduced to 150 deaths per 100,000 births

– Sub-Saharan Africa will see the largest increase in the proportion of young people completing secondary education

– More than 1.7bn people globally will gain access to electricity

– Inequality will fall in low-income countries

– There will be a halt to declining forest cover with an increase beginning from 2020

Source: www.developmentprogress.org

We live in a moment of great opportunity

www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk