TobiasLung,EuropeanEnvironmentAgency

‘Safeandsecure’–keytrendsrelatedtomigra7on,resourcecompe77onandpowershi<s

PLACARD Foresight Workshop l 24/25 October 2016 l Vienna

Migration as part of an increasingly interconnected world

•  Migrant = person who is living in a country other than his or her country of birth, i.e. not only refugees

•  The number of international migrants worldwide has grown rapidly from 173 million in 2000 to 244 million in 2015

•  Asia and Europe host the largest numbers of migrants worldwide

Source: UN International Migration Report 2015 (UN, 2016)

Large-scale involuntary migration (displacements)

•  UNHCR: global forced displacement is continuously increasing (65.3 million people in 2015, thereof 21.3 million refugees)

•  Drivers: armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights (people displaced due to natural disasters NOT included here)

Syria Afganistan

Somalia South Sudan

Sudan DR of Congo

Central African Rep. Myanmar

Eritrea Colombia

Source: UNHCR 2016 (Global trends – forced displacement in 2015)

Displacements due to natural disasters

•  Since 2008, an average of 26.4 million people have been displaced by disasters each year, thereof 22.5 million people due to climate or weather-related disasters (IDCM 2015 data)

•  The global risk of weather-related displacements increased by more than 50% since 1970s (IDCM 2015 data)

•  The majority of displacements within a country and temporarily, but incleasingly also international and permanent

•  The strategic significance of weather-related risks in Africa for Europe (numerous recent publications, e.g. Gleick 2014; Kelley et al. 2015; Mulligan et al. 2014)

•  Climate change in combination with violent confilcts and insecurity as emergent geopolitical risk and research priority (IPCC, AR5), example Afganistan

Source: IDMC, 2015

European demographic trends: the key role of migration

Comparison of UN, IIASA and ESTAT population projections for Europe: •  EU28: a population increase of up to

6.6% if migration is considered, but a decrease up to 8.2% with zero migration

•  Many EU countries: tremendous differences in population trends depending on the degree of migration (UK, Sweden, Spain, Germany, Denmark, Austria, etc.)

•  Some EU countries: (strong) population declines regardless of migration (e.g. Romania, Poland, Portugal)

•  High agreement across projections for other demographic factors (fertility, mortality, ageing)

Sources: ESTAT EUROPOP2013, UN WPP2015, IIASA 2016

Global resource use is ever increasing

Global total material use by resource type, 1900–2009

Source: Krausmann et al., 2009 (data updated in 2011)

•  Projections: global resource use is expected to double from 2010 to 2030, driven by increasing demands in particular from developing countries (SERI, 2013)

Certain resources are scarce and EU access is unceratin

Source: EC 2016 (Raw Materials Scoreboard)

•  Europe: high import dependency for metals, minerals, rubber & fossil fuels

•  Some critical raw materials’ geographic distribution is uneven (concentration in few countries) but their role for green innovation in crucial (e.g. gallium for photovoltaics)

•  Risk for for supply disruptions or price volatilities

Increasing scarcity of biological resources (land, water)

•  ”Land grabbing”: recent significant increase in large-scale trans-national land acquisitions, mostly in developing countries by western countries or multi-national companies (acquisitions 2005-2009: an area as large as Sweden, see Rulli et al. 2013)

Source: Wada et al., 2016

Projected industrial (left) and domestic (right) water withdrawal

•  Increasing global water demand: implications for water scarcity Water scarcity hotspot area: the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa)

•  Projections for 2050: increase in water demand by 50%, decrease in water supply by 12%

•  Water shortage: 22% can be attributed to CC, 78% to socio-economic factors (changes in consumption patterns, population and, economic growth

Source: Droogers et al., 2012

An increasingly multipolar world

•  Declining dominance of advanced economies –  2000: OECD countries: 77% of global economic output (28% EU), projected to

decline to 42% (14% EU) by 2050

•  Increasing importance of emerging economies (China, India, etc.), also in terms of foreign direct investments (FDI) –  1970: US + EU-27 + EFTA + Japan accounted for almost 100% of global FDI, 2012

their share had dropped to 60%

•  Overall, this means ecomonic risks and potential insecurities but also opportunities for developed regions (e.g. export potentail for a growing and increasingly affluent global middle class

•  Tremendouos challenges in global governance to ensure economic and political stability –  Dispersion of authority to numerous new (non-state) actors, limitations to state

and intergovernmental mechanisms

–  multifacted ‘mixed’ networks, rise of international NGOs

Thankyou!