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Cycling safety as an obstacle.
Fears, myths and social learning
International Conference: Bike and City Madrid
9 March 2015
www.john-adams.co.uk [email protected]
Risk, Freedom, Safety Debates on cycling safety and mobility in United Kingdom
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“Change has to take root in people’s minds before it can be legislated.” Michael Sandel,
What Money Can't Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets
"El cambio tiene que echar raíces en las mentes de la gente antes de que se pueda legislar". Google Translate
“The change has to take root in the minds of people before they can legislate”
http://www.iihs.org/news/rss/pr092810.html
Highway Loss Data Institute News Release – “Texting bans don't reduce crashes; effects are slight crash increases”
The main headline in the Daily Mail reads “£90 fine if you’re texting at the wheel:
Minister warns of safety crackdown”
If change has not taken root in the minds of texting Californian drivers a law is unlikely To work, and may be counterproductive.
http://www.gov.scot/Resource/Img/316212/0091984.jpg
Home time at a Dutch school
http://www.bikehub.co.uk/featured-articles/safe-cycling-for-kids-but-not-wrapped-in-cotton-wool/
http://hembrow.blogspot.com/2008/08/everyone-cycles.html
http://steco.nl/pages/consumer/index.php?taal=nl&page=Producten&cid=12&pid=20
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80
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1950
19
52
1954
19
56
1958
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1962
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64
1966
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68
1970
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72
1974
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1982
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1990
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1994
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96
1998
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00
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08
2010
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12
Road Accident Deaths per Billion Vehicle Kilometers GB 1950 - 2012
How much can be attributed to:
the work of legislators?
the work of engineers?
change taking root in people's minds?
Nigeria's MOST dangerous road Tues Apr 2 2013
Lagos-Ibadan Expressway
Legislation for road safety can be defined as “comprehensive” if the existing national and sub-national road safety laws include the following key laws: 1) a national speed limit law 2) a national drink-driving law 3) a national motorcycle helmet law 4) a national seat-belt law (front and rear seats)
http://blogs.bmj.com/injury-prevention/2013/04/16/global-progress-towards-comprehensive-legislation-for-road-safety/
Better laws?
y = -0.0225x + 2.0182 R² = 0.99265
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Energy crisis speeds limits
Log Road Accident deaths per Billion Vehicle Kilometres
GB 1950-2012
Seat belt law and introduction of evidential breath testing
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
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9,000
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Road Accident Deaths: GB 1950 - 2012
Cyclist Fatalities GB 1952 - 2013
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1950 1968 1985 2003 2020
Log cyclist fatalities GB
1,9
2,15
2,4
2,65
2,9
1950 1968 1985 2003 2020
Billion kms cycled GB
0,0
6,0
12,0
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24,0
1950 1968 1985 2003 2020
Cyclist fatalities/billion kms GB
0,00
25,00
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75,00
100,00
1950 1968 1985 2003 2020
Billion kms cycled GB
0,0
6,0
12,0
18,0
24,0
1950 1968 1985 2003 2020Cyclist fatalities/billion kms GB
0,00
25,00
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75,00
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1950 1968 1985 2003 2020
Cyclist fatalities/billion kms GB
Cycle helmet wearing: Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Sweden (EC, 1999); ermany (Pucher and Dijkstra, 2000); UK (Bryan-Brown and Christie, 2001); USA & France (Paris) (Osberg and Stiles, 1998).
Cyclist deaths: EU (CIT, 2001); France (Carre, 1995), USA (Pucher and Dijkstra, 2000).
Cycle Percentage of trips: Flanders cities (ECF, 1997); USA, Canada, France, Italy, Austria (Pucher and Dijkstra, 2000); UK, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark (EC, 1999); Germany (Bracher, 2003); Netherlands (Welleman, 2002)
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Today, the London Cycling Campaign hailed a major success as Mayor Boris Johnson (pictured above) opened the Dutch-style extension of Cycle Superhighway 2 from Bow to Stratford
A new £51 million sponsorship deal with Santander - £7.25 million per year for seven years
Boris Bikes go red with Santander deal
68 cm
13 cm
16.5 cm
https://aseasyasridingabike.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/screen-shot-2014-04-22-at-23-27-02.png
https://aseasyasridingabike.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/screen-shot-2014-04-22-at-23-24-06.png
Different kinds of Risk
Perceivedthroughscience
Perceiveddirectly
Virtualrisk
Perceivedthroughscience
Perceiveddirectly
Virtualrisk
Perceivedthroughscience
Perceiveddirectly
Virtualrisk
e.g. climbing a tree, riding a bike, driving a car
e.g. cholera: need a microscope to see it and a scientific training to understand Scientists don’t
know or cannot agree: e.g. BSE/vCJD, global warming, low-level radiation, pesticide residues, HRT, mobile phones, passive smoking ….
Perception of risks Accidents
Propensity to take risks
Balancing behaviour
Rewards
The Risk Thermostat
Risk and Freedom, p 62, http://john-adams.co.uk/books/
Denmark
http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Nl1/Newsroom/DG_072333
DfT Celebrates 25th Anniversary of the introduction of seatbelts
On the 31st January 2008, the 25th anniversary of the law change which made front seatbelt wearing compulsory was celebrated. PACTS itself was set up by Barry Sheerman MP as part of the fight to get mandatory seatbelt wearing turned into legislation. Eight years later it became compulsory for all backseat passengers to use seatbelts and it is estimated that since the introduction of the first law change in 1983, seatbelts have prevented 60,000 deaths and over 670,000 serious injuries. http://www.pacts.org.uk/newsletters.php?id=2
“We have just marked the 25th anniversary of the seat-belt law, engineered through Parliament by our then President, Lord Nugent, a single act of intervention which has saved 60,000 lives.” http://www.rospa.com/about/annualreview/Info/review2008.pdfwhich has saved 60,000 lives.”
http://www.john-adams.co.uk/2009/09/16/seat-belts-again-2/
http://john-adams.co.uk/2009/11/05/seat-belts-another-look-at-the-data/
Perception of risks Accidents
Propensity to take risks
Balancing behaviour
Rewards
Risk thermostat with perceptual filters
Cultural bias
Societal Safety Culture
http://www.edwardburtynsky.com/WORKS/Ships/Shipbreaking/Shipbreaking_04.jpg
Bangladesh – road fatalities per 100,000 motor vehicles - 6300
UK – road fatalities per 100,000 motor vehicles - 6.2
Global status report on road safety: time for action. (PDF). Geneva: World Health Organization. 2009. ISBN 978-92-4-156384-0.
BG LNG Plant, Idku, Egypt
Egypt: road fatalities per 100,000 motor vehicles - 188
In 1971 80% of 7 and 8 year old children got to school unaccompanied by an adult.
By 1990 it had fallen to 9%.
The parents who let their children cycle to school alone deserve praise, not the social services
Fear of traffic and stranger danger
“Change has to take root in people’s minds before it can be legislated.” Michael Sandel,
What Money Can't Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets
https://aseasyasridingabike.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/screen-shot-2014-04-22-at-23-27-02.png
Home time at a Dutch school
