Professor Peter BurnsProject International Chief Technical Adviser University of Bedfordshire

Tourism and Climate Change: Global Perspectives

The shift from 20th to 21st century living• The death of distance (Cairncross)• Demographics

• Different for developed and developing worlds• Fragmented and single family units• Shift to urban living (2007 crossed the 50%

threshold)• Gender equality remains unsatisfactory

• Liquid modernity (Bauman)• Tourism mobility no longer a by product of

household surplus income• Search for ‘authenticity, inspiration, rejuvenation’• Emergence of the ‘sharing economy’

Remapping global politics and economics

• Fukuyama was wrong!• The ‘rise of the rest’

(Zakaria’s post-American global economy)

• Wall Street ethos of ‘Greed is good’ was wrong and is wrong

• Globally, poor gender balance is still inhibiting equality and growth

But the world remains a confusing place…

http://logicalscience.blogspot.com/2006_10_01_archive.html

http://panokroko.wordpress.com/2012/12/19/the-environmental-parliament-issued-report-that-says-governments-should-act-forcefully/screen-shot-2012-12-19-at-11-18-02/

SE Europe under threat 2050?

A perfect storm on the way?

Individual and societal response?

1 billion tourist arrivals (13th December 2012!)1.8 billion by 2020?

IPCC AR5 (2013) on Europe

Weird stuff is happening…

IPCC AR5 WGIII (2014)…

Tourism is mentioned in IPCC AR5…

Tourism and IPCC AR5 WGIII (2014)

Global tourism hotspots (UNWTO/ UNEP)

Extreme positions for tourism…

• Worst case scenario: oil prices and global warming may produce such catastrophic changes to society that tourism becomes irrelevant to society

• Best case scenario: adaptation, mitigation, and technological innovation reduce tourism’s carbon footprint to zero

• Just a thought: Can interactive technology offer carbon-neutral virtual tourist experiences through shared virtual environments?

And the future of tourism?

Or this?

Ski Dubai !!

Or this?

Tourism summary…

• The traditional climate/ weather/ tourism relationship is no longer a stable or reliable part of the product mix

• Changes in consumption patterns and climatic conditions will impact on suppliers and destinations

• Climate change impacts will happen up and down the value/ supply chains creating opportunities and need for innovation, adaptation, and mitigation

THANK YOU!

The research continues…