GLOBAL LUKEWARMINGThe New Climate Science that Changes Everything

Patrick J. MichaelsDirector,

Center for the Study of Science,Cato Institute

******CEQLS, Bratislava

June 20, 2016

Global warming is real

IT’S NOT THE HEAT… …IT’S THE SENSITIVITY

Previous Sensitivity Estimates

Something is Very Wrong!

Climate Models vs. Observations(Surface Temperatures, 1977-2014)

It’s not new

When increases in greenhouse gases only are taken into account…most GCMs produce a greater mean warming than has been observed, unless a lower climate sensitivity is used…There is growing evidence that increases in sulfate aerosols are partially counteracting the [warming] due to increases in greenhouse gases.

--Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1995

In science,…novelty emerges only with difficulty, manifested by resistance, against a background provided by expectation. Initially, only the anticipated and the usual are experienced even under circumstances where anomaly is later to be observed.

--Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

Modeled Temperature

Trend

Observed Temperature

Trend

60N 45N 30N 15N 0 15S 30S 45S 60S850

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60N 45N 30N 15N 0 15S 30S 45S 60S

Temperature Change (°C)0 0.6 1.2 1.8-0.6-1.2-1.8

60N 45N 30N 15N 0 15S 30S 45S 60S850

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-.8-.6-.4-.2

0.2.4.6.8

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

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Temperature Trend (1963-1987)

Ben Santer to Phil Jones10/9/2009

Next time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I'll be tempted to beat the crap out of him. Very tempted.

Surface Temperature Anomalies(through June 14, 2016)

SOME BASIC GLOBAL WARMING SCIENCE

The increase in greenhouse gases is

A LOW ORDER EXPONENTC

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The response to greenhouse gas increases is:

LOGARITHMIC

Carbon Dioxide Concentration

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The combination of the two tends towardsA STRAIGHT LINE

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IPCC’s 21 Models for Climate Change—Midrange CO2 Changes

Global Surface Temperature History, 1977-2015

Modelled vs. Observed Trends

Source: Michaels, P.J., and P.C. Knappenberger, 2014. Quantifying the Lack of Consistency between Climate Model Projections and Observations of the Evolution of the Earth’s Average Surface Temperature since the Mid-20 th Century. 2014 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, December 16-19, 2014.

Hemispheric Temperature History, 1850-2016

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity(Lewis and Curry, 2014 modified to reflect Stevens, 2015)

Transient Climate Sensitivity(Lewis and Curry, 2014 modified to reflect Stevens, 2015)

Collection of Low Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

Determinations(published since 2011)

Flashy

“If humanity follows a Business-as-Usual course with global warming of at least 2-3°C, we should anticipate the likelihood of an eventual sea level rise 22 of 25 meters ± 10 meters. It is not possible to say just how long it would take for sea level to change, as ice sheet disintegration begins slowly until feedbacks are strong enough to evoke a highly non-linear cataclysmic response...

It is my opinion that 2-3°C global warming would likely cause a sea level rise of at least ~6 m within a century.”

NASA’ James Hansen

THE GREENLAND SCENARIO--Ice flow from Greenland enhanced by meltwater

--Instead of two inches of sea-level rise from Greenland by 2100 we get 20 feet.

--Is warming there be unprecedented?

“Considering these different lines of evidence, a picture begins to evolve suggesting that Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene; there appears even to have been periods of ice free summers in large parts of the central Arctic Ocean.”

Ice-free Arctic Ocean in the current interglacial

Jakobsson et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, 2010.

“Recent mapping of a number of raised beach ridges on the north coast of Greenland suggests that the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean was greatly reduced some 6000-7000 years ago. The Arctic Ocean may have been periodically ice free.”

Ice-free Arctic Ocean in the current interglacial

-Geological Survey of Norway, Press Release, 2008

The Penultimate Interglacial

• 118,000 YEARS AGO WAS 6-8°C WARMER IN SUMMER THAN 20TH CENTURY AVERAGE (THE EEMIAN PERIOD)

• THE THICKEST ICE IS APPROXIMATELY 11,000 FEET IN DEPTH

• 6,000 YEARS OF THE “EEMIAN” TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE CHANGED THE DEPTH 1,000 FEET.

A little math…

Dahl-Jensen (2013) Eemian ice core:6ºC X 6,000 summers = 36,000 degree-summers

Climate Model worst case:5ºC X 500 summers = 2,500 degree-summers

Observed vs. Modeled Antarctic Sea Ice Extent(Shu et al., 2015)

Daniele Fanelli

It’s Not Just Climate Science

“Negative results are disappearing from most disciplines and countries.” (Scientometrics, 2012)

(Fanelli, Scientometrics, 2012)

Percentage of papers reporting support for the tested hypothesis, plotted against year of publication.

(Fanelli, Scientometrics, 2012)

Percentage of papers by U.S. authors reporting support for the tested hypothesis, plotted against year of publication.

Randy Schekman2013 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine

How journals like Nature, Cell, and Science are damaging science —London Guardian 12/10/13

IT WAS PREDICTED

Eisenhower’s Farewell Address, January 17. 1961

Famous statement on “Military-Industrial Complex”

In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.

Un-noticed next section:

The free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity…

Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite. The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)