Pathways to a Low Carbon Future – How we get there is (VERY) Important

Paul Price @swimsure

Researcher, Climate Change CommitteeAn Taisce – The National Trust for Ireland

www.antaisce.org/issues/climate-change

Pathways to a Low-Carbon Future How We Get There Is (VERY) Important

3 Nov 2015

Success!

Or Failure?EU emissions only down 4%, now rising again – failing to meet irrelevant target

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6"

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1990" 1995" 2000" 2005" 2010"0"

2"

4"

6"

8"

10"

12"

14"

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18"

1990" 1995" 2000" 2005" 2010"

EU CO2 tonnes per person

Ireland CO2 tonnes per person

Consumption

Consumption

Territorial

Territorial

5

10

15

1990 19902000 2010 2000 20100

The Best Measure of Climate Policy Is

Consumption EmissionsEconomic recession

To date, only economic recession has seriously cut emissions.

Policy has had little effect, especially in Ireland

Are we serious about limiting global warming?

No.We have failed to understand what is required.

1

0

-2

-3

2

3

-1

20000BC 16000BC 12000BC 8000BC 4000BC 0 2000CE

Human-caused greenhouse

emissions explain all of the very

rapid recent global warming

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y ºC

(Rel

ativ

e to

Pre

-Indu

stria

l)

Year BCE/CE

We are here

Temperatures for human agricultural

civilisation

Earth Mean Surface Temperature Over the Past 22,000 Years

4ºC rise after last ice age took

12,000 years

4ºC rise after last ice age took 12,000 years

Possible 4ºC rise in 200

years unless emissions stop

1. Global warming due to past emissions is(essentially) irreversible

2. BUT additional warmingcan be limited by cuttingtotal future emissions.

3. More warming can onlybe avoided if future CO2emissions go to ZERO

Earth’s Climate SystemThree Key Points

Total CO2 emitted(trillions of tonnes)

6 TtCO2

3 TtCO2

Year

2 TtCO2 emitted so far

Emissions Flow Stops

Proven Fossil Fuel Reserves If Burned = 3 TtCO2

Warming remains

#CarbonBubble #Divestment#KeepItInTheGround

Surf

ace

War

min

g ºC

Climate Model for 2ºC & 4ºC

3 Essentials of Climate Policy

2. Target: urgent immediate emission cuts Decarbonise fast in line with science and equity.

-x% per year

1. Carbon Budgets: warming is ‘forever’ Total future emissions = Total future warming = ºCCO2

3. Eliminate Rebound: ring-fence savings Savings wasted if spent on more emissions.

CO2 €CO2

CarbonEconomy

ClimateRisk

2ºCSTOP

1. Carbon Budgets: warming is forever Total future emissions = Total future warming = ºCCO2

2ºC Limit

1 trillion tonnes global CO2 budget

Rapid emissions cuts needed or else 2 trillion tonnes of CO₂ will be emitted globally in the next 40 years

As of 2011

Choosing the mitigation pathway

The Emission Pathway Is VERY Important...

= ºCCO2

Emis

sion

s

Time

...because delay is not an option

100

10

2015 2050Year

No cut in annual or cumulative total

emissions

‘Flat-lining Emissions’ Pathway

Annual CO2 Emissions

(assume 2015 emissions = 100)

Note: Flatlining emissions (CO2 or methane) is NOT mitigation!

Nodecrease in annual emissions

100

10

No better than flatline pathway

in total cumulative emissions.

2015 2050Year



Delayed Action Pathway(No-Action Pathway)

Continue biz-as-usual

Need to cut very fast to meet 2050 target

90% decrease in annual emissions

100

10

Relative to flatline:45% cut in total cumulative emissions

2015 2050Year



Linear Reduction Pathway

Per cent reduction needed increases

over time




100

10

2015 2050Year

Relative to flatline:60% cut in totalcumulative emissions


Continuous Effort Pathway

Steady per cent reduction over time

Different pathways have very different total emissions

Saying “80% cut by 2050” (or any cut % by date) is meaningless UNLESS

reduction rate or total carbon budget is also specified.

= ºCCO2Em

issi

ons

Time

0

20

40

60

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

MtCO2eq

Fair-share?

Pay forexcess?

Ireland Emissions – EPA projected versus “Fair-share” and “Pay for excess”

EPA projected

2. Target: deep decarbonisation rate Decarbonise in line with science and equity.

-x% per year

“Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.”

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment 2014

Cut energy

consumptionFAST

Switch to low carbon power NOW

Keep fossil fuels in the

ground

Minimise food related

GHGs

2020 2030 2040

3%

2%

4%

8%

2025 20352015

5%

6%7%

9%

Peak Year of Global Emissions

Global peak 2020 = average cut need -3% per year, every year.Delay makes decarbonisation rate needed ever higher

2ºC necessary average annual

rate of decarbonisation

(% per year)

Don’t forget equity: Makes rate needed by richer nations much faster!

Urgent need to decarbonise quickly, starting now

3. Eliminate Rebound: ring-fence savings Savings wasted if spent on more emissions.

CO2 CO2 €

Invest to save emissions(often causes emissions)

Saving emissions, saves money!

Spend money on more

emissions!

FAIL

Ring-fence cash savings to more emissions saving

SUCCESS

CO2

Repeat until zero

carbon

2ºC

6 TtCO24ºC

3 TtCO2

Cumulative emissions past + continued

We are here

1850 1900 205020001950 2100

Total global emissions continue to double every 40 yearsGlobal rebound constant at 101.8% since 1850

CO2 emissions ZERO to stop rise in cumulative emissions

Increasing ‘efficiency’ is not enough: TOTAL GHGs (direct and indirect) must decrease.

GHGs per unit x units produced = Total GHGs

Efficiency x Units = Carbon Footprint

The efficiency is NOT the carbon footprint!

For example: the carbon footprint of dairy in Ireland is not 1 kg/litre (=carbon intensity). The carbon footprint is the

national total, about 4 million tonnes CO2e per year

Confusing Efficiency with Footprint is Not Helping

Fee and dividend: Carbon fee at minehead and oil/gas well.Increase rapidly, €100/tCO2 Dividend paid equally.#CapGlobalCarbon

2ºC limits to drive real markets & innovation:Demand (!) and set stretch equitable 2ºC aligned carbon budgets targets to drive action based on capacity & responsibility.

Ringfencing: Ringfence ALL cost savings due to emission saving to more emission savings.Green Plan: Dublin Fire Brigade / Neil McCabe

-x% per year

= ºCCO2

CO2 CO2 €

Policies that add up

The critical,controllable uncertainty in the Earth’s climate system is how much fossil carbon and food

GHGs humanity CHOOSES to emit in future.We are running out of ‘braking distance’ for 2ºC.

CarbonEconomy

ClimateRisk

2ºCSTOPToo fast! = more risk!!

Selfishly delaying deep and fast emission cuts is not an option – total emissions MUST be limited, even in small rich nations with high emissions per person.

Even locally, climate decisions require thinking global and very long-term.

Delay is not an option, substantial and sustained action is needed

now.

Thank-you!

ReferencesSlide

2 Irish Independent 20/10/153 Altered version of above story4 Emissions data from Global Carbon Atlas5 NASA photo of airglow, Earth limb and Iberian peninsula 6 Annotated version of Hagelaars The two epochs of Marcott see: https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2013/03/19/the-two-epochs-of-marcott/7 Climate science based on Matthews and Solomon (2013) Irreversible Does Not Mean Unavoidable Science 340, 438 (2013);8 Solomon et al (2009) Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions PNAS February 10, 2009 vol. 106 no. 610 IPCC (2013) AR5 WG1 SPM p 27.11-16 Emission pathway graphics by Paul Price17 Data from EPA (2015) Emission Projections plus equitable path from Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate equity calculator http://www.sei-international.org/equity-calculator18 Redrawn to show 2ºC only, from Stocker et al (2013) The Closing Doors of Climate Targets. Science Vol. 339 no. 6117 pp. 280-28220 Earth surface temperature, annotated version of Hagelaars 21 See Berners-Lee (2015) http://earth101.is/mike-berners-lee/ and Jarvis et al (2011) Climate–society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change. Nature Climate Change 2, 668–671 (2012)22 Carbon footprint: Correct definition in BSI and Carbon Trust (2008) Guide to PAS 2050, compared to usage by O’Brien et al (2014) in Int J Life Cycle Assess (2014) 19:1469–1481