Upload
climateclimate
View
59
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Climate Forum East: Regional CVA Workshop Batumi, July 8th-9th 2013
(inter)national experiences
1
Martin König Environment Agency Austria Department for Environmental Impact Assessment and Climate Change
National Adaptation Plans and Strategies
Focus
2
Some critical climate change features in Georgia (from
NC2/UNFCCC)
Starting up: adaptation modes and classifications to consider
Guidance for the adaptation process
UN guidelines for setting up national adaptation plans and processes in
developing countries
EU adaptation strategy/guidelines
Austrian tools and adaptation process
Potential criteria for a prioritization of adaptation measures
National examples of integrative adaptation approaches in
some ‘frontrunner’ industrialized countries
(with some Austrian bias)
How to integrate CSOs? Working in partnerships
The vulnerability-adaptation link or: What is a CVA report good for?
3
Highlights most climate exposed/sensitive parts of society, economy and natural environment
Vulnerability hot spots may be indicated as regions, sectors, ecosystems or most affected people
Show trends, current situation and projections (climate as well as socio-economic scenarios!) that have led/lead/will likely lead to (additional) climate damages/altering vulnerability
Climate damages may be indicated in monetary terms for some (market) values and might be translated into monetary terms in some other cases (note that deciders like monetary information), but qualitative descriptions of damages are OK
CVA reports provide essential policy decision support on where to put emphasis for the adaptation process
T and P 2100 Change in Georgia (taken from Georgian NC2/UNFCCC)
4
Seasonal precipitation and temperature change
Delta T and P projections for four SRES scenarios in Georgis W/E
Some striking vulnerabilities and pot. impacts in Georgia (taken Georgian from NC2/UNFCCC)
5
More extreme events? At least some hints from trends…
Years with extreme mudflow activity in Tskenistskali river basin
Number of annual storm events in Dedoplistskaro
Klimawandel und Extremereignisse
© Münchner Rück (2013): Jahresrückblick Naturkatastrophen 2012
Extreme events matter
Klimawandel und Extremereignisse
But note: damages = events x exposure of values
© Münchner Rück (2013): Jahresrückblick Naturkatastrophen 2012
…because damage costs are already significant!
Intermediate key messages
10
Look at gradual (slow onset) trends as well as extreme
(sudden onset) events
If climate models deliver high range of future extreme
event frequencies/amplitudes, work with simple ‘if, then-
scenarios’ to depict potential vulnerability in certain
sectors/regions
If you want to assess potential future vulnerability
quantitatively, you need to take socio-economic
development (i.e. demographic, land-use, technological
change and economic growth/values at risk) into account
Framing the adaptation concept, simplified wording
Exposure: A certain region/a certain sector/a company is
exposed to (the changes of) climate parameters
Sensitivity: A certain region/a certain sector/a company is
threatened/shows sensitivity towards (the changes of) climate
parameters
Climate Impacts = Exposure + Sensitivity
Vulnerability = Climate Impacts +/- Adaptive Capacity
exposure
pot. climate impacts
sensitivity
Climate change = anthropo-
genic +
natural forcing
mitigation
adaptive capacity
vulnerability
adaptation
grey green Soft & fiscal
regional sectoral micro-scale
reactive or responsive
proactive or anticipating
determines
determines determines
determines
determines/reduces determines/reduces
graphically:
planned autonomous
König 2011, amended after Isoard et al. 2009
IPCC SREX report 2012, amended
Disaster risk and climate change
Exposure depends on socio-economic dev. pathways (e.g. land-use, demography, technology and growth)!
Adaptation and the policy cycle
Horrocks et al. 2006 after EEA 2007 (amended)
CVAs
core NAS objectives
policy action
based upon new scientific results
Note: This wheel keeps on turning!
UN NAP guidance
UN LDC expert group (2012)
EU guidelines on the adaptation process
EU(COM) (2013)
CVA
NAS
prep
are
imp
lem
en
tati
on
18
Create the basis for adaptation
Identify problems and find solutions
Implement actions and evaluate
F actory for A daptation M easures O perated by U sers at various S cales
Prutsch, A., Felderer, A., Balas, M., König, M., Clar, C. & R. Steurer (2013)
Intermediate key messages
19
Regard CVAs as key starting point for the national adaptation process
CVAs will have to undergo revisions, the whole process is a cycle, but revisions will be much less resource-iintensive once you have a basis
Quality of NAS and NAP is very much determined by quality of CVA – it is important to address knowledge gaps, socio-economic factors of vulnerability and uncertainty
The CVAs should not already name and evaluate adaptation options as this is part of the NAS process
Link up with policy makers as early as possible
20
Austrian NAS Process
Overall aim
to reduce anticipated negative impacts of climate change on Austria's
society, economy and nature
to use positive effects of climate change and allow synergies
to provide an overall framework in which adaptation should take place
Process
sectoral and iterative approach
close collaboration with science
(research programmes ACRP and StartClim)
broad stakeholder involvement to support the development of the NAS
21
Responsibilities and involvement
Provinces Kyoto Forum
Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry,
Environment and Water Management
Environment Agency Austria
AustroClim
Coordination unit
Wider research community
Consultation and Cooperation CSOs/NGOs
Other Ministries
Interest Groups
Building blocks for the Austrian NAS -1
22
Review of already ongoing adaptation activities (2008)
Starting basis for the national database on practice examples and research
activities
available at www.klimawandelanpassung.at/datenbank, continuously up-
dated
CVA for all activity areas (2008, 2010)
Assessing current and future vulnerability to climate change in Austria
Sectoral approach
Consideration of existing regional climate models, literature review and
expert judgments, qualitative and descriptive work
First evaluation of vulnerability (current/2020/2050)
BUT: Further assessments in more detail are necessary!
Building blocks for the Austrian NAS -2
23
Sectoral expert studies to identify first recommended adaptation options
Undertaken by AustroClim (Institute of Social Ecology, University of Natural Resources
and Applied Life Sciences, Environment Agency Austria)
14 Sectors yet covered: agriculture, forestry, water, energy, tourism (2008);
protection against natural hazards, building and housing, health,
transport infrastructure, natural ecosystems/biodiversity (2010)
economy, urban areas, spatial planning, disaster management/DRR (2011)
“Mini”workshops with selected experts per sector
Serve as a basis for further discussion in the participatory process
Mile stones: Policy Paper
Takes up results from expert studies and participatory process
Equates to the gradual development of the NAS
Undergoes formal consultation and is used for political approval
Workshops BMLFUW
Information, presentation and discussion with stakeholders on NAS progress
24
‚final‘ result: national adaptation strategy to frame national adaptation
agriculture
forestry
water
tourism
energy
building and housing
natural hazard protection
ecosystems & biodiversity
traffic infrastructure
health
catastrophe management
private economy, industry and retail
spatial planning
Cities and urban green
Activities for setting up the NAS
CVA
132 options to act on adaptation in 14 sectors
Structure of actions description
– title
– goal
– relevance
– Interaction with other sectors
– Existing instruments for implementation
– State of implementation
– Recommended further steps
– Potential resource needs
– Potential conflicts
– Responsible actors
– Time horizon
Participation process to support the development of the NAS
Environment Agency Austria carried out the participation process in close cooperation
with responsible Ministry (Steering group)
Objectives:
Raise awareness about climate change in general and the need for adaptation
Improve the NAS quality through involving relevant stakeholders and benefit
from their specific expertise and practical experience
Provide a platform to discuss conflicts and develop balanced solutions
Foster transparent decision-making (note: this is time- and nerve-consuming!)
Enhance the acceptance through jointly developed and backed results
Facilitate the implementation of the final NAS
Financed by Duration
Climate- and Energy Fund Austria
1.phase: January 2009 – September 2010 2.phase: October 2010 – December 2011
Involving the “organised public” and parliament decision
26
84 institutions have so far been actively involved in the
participation process:
Federal and provincial ministries
Interest groups (e.g. Chambers of labor/agriculture…)
CSOs (e.g. Red cross) and NGOs
The Austrian Adaptation Strategy
was decided by the national
parliament in Autumn 2012
Provincial adaptation processes
have started
Adaptation pathways might look very different
Grey adaptation: invasive and/or energy
intensive technical and construction measures
aiming mainly at the protection of
infrastructures or people
Green adaptation: measures aiming at raising
the resilience of ecosystems and their services
Soft adaptation: non-invasive spatial planning
measures and measures to enhance
knowledge transfer/raising adaptive capacity
Fiscal adaptation: Measures aiming at saving
critical resources/protect values by adaptation
(e.g. water or public/private infrastructures)
by introducing measures like payment for
ecosystem services (PES) or risk transfer
mechanisms (e.g. insurances)
21
101
5 5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
nu
mb
er o
f m
easu
res
category
Distribution of measures
in Austrian NAS
gre
en m
easure
s
fiscal m
easure
s
gre
y/t
echnic
al m
easure
s
soft
measure
s
Informing the general public - Website
28
New Website www.klimawandelanpassung.at
with information on:
Climate change in
Austria
Adaptation to CC
Austrian activities
towards a NAS
Participation Process
Database
29
Informing the general public - Database
Providing
good-practice
examples
Search function for
sectors,
governance level,
spatial patterns
and
research vs.
practical examples
Involving the general public - Online survey
30
Online Survey via Website
open from August until
November 2009 for every
(Austrian) citizen
Intention to obtain a picture of
public notion and opinion on
climate change and adaptation
Mix between multiple choice and
blank text fields
Announcement via different
newsletters and websites
31
Newsletter
Intermediate key messages -1: Important factors for a successful process
Political and public awareness for the need of adapting to the
impacts of climate change as a 2nd pillar of CC policy (1st pillar
mitigation of GHG emission)
Careful planning of the process for the development of a NAS
Participative process from the start, involving science, different
ministries, regional and local representatives, stakeholders, civil
society… (participation process)
Start-off by reviewing already ongoing adaptation
activities in Austria, especially research and good
practice examples + assessment of vulnerabilities
Stepwise, sectoral and iterative approach, develop-
ment of the NAS in stages (2 Policy Papers – June 09
+ Oct 10; draft of final NAS Feb 12), continuously
broadening the scope of the NAS
Intermediate key messages -2: Challenges for implementing a NAS
Conflicting interests between different groupings/different
administrative levels (Federation vs „Länder“)
Interlinkages between adaptation sectors/activities and between
adaptation and mitigation
Broad political commitment on all levels
Question of costs: Costs of damage due to climate change vs costs of
adaptation measures? Who pays? (also for research)
Scientific knowledge gaps
regular reviews of NAS necessary
(„living document“)
How to address uncertainty?
Some key questions for the CVA/NAS process
1. Which sectors/regions are most vulnerable?
2. Which parts of economy are most sensitive?
3. Which ecosystems might collapse/have low resilience under changing
climate regimes?
4. Which meteorological extreme events cause major damages/losses? How
is their trend/projection?
5. Which gradual shifts do we have to adapt to?
6. Are there any opportunities due to climate change we should make use of?
7. What is the range of uncertainty we have to face?
-----------
1. Which conflicts among stakeholders/sectoral interests are already visible?
2. Which mainstreaming potential with sectoral policies can already be
detected?
3. How can the suggested adaptation measures be prioritized?
Possible criteria for the prioritization of adaptation measures -1 Importance:
Capability to reduce/prevent significant or irreversible damages
and/or to protect many people?
Urgency:
Massive damages already occurring (adaptation deficit)? Long-
term measures with long handling time until measure becomes
effective?
Robustness and Flexibility:
Does the measure reflect the range of uncertainty and is it ‘no-
regret’, if the climate change is not the expected one? Might the
measure be adapted, revised or made undone at low cost?
Possible criteria for the prioritization of adaptation measures -2 Synergies and conflicts with other political goals:
Capability to reduce or at least not raise GHG emissions? Cross-
sectoral synergies/conflicts? Does the measure support other
political goals such as biodiversity or social justice?
Environmental Impacts:
Does the measure help to raise resilience of ecosystem services?
Is the measure invasive for ecosystems and their services?
Social Impacts:
Does the measure help to allocate risks in a fair manner? Is it
capable to bring advantages for broad parts of society? Does the
measure tackle threats for old, chronically sick and poor people?
Possible criteria for the prioritization of adaptation measures -3 Economic reasonability:
Does the measure support the general government to get
along with their long-term fiscal goals? How is the return of
investment/long-term CBA? Is the measure cost-effective?
Feasibility:
Is the measure politically opportune? Is it accepted by the
aggrieved parties? Is the measure easy to implement (not too
many political scales/parties involved)? How about its
mainstreaming potential?
The SALDO* Tool
* stands for: the Social costs of Adaptation: approaches for an evaLuation of aDaptation Options
Intermediate key messages
39
Some priorization criteria might already help to shape the
CVA structure
As mentioned yesterday: criteria for sector selection would
be good
This does not necessarily have to follow ‘objective’ criteria,
but can also include preferences, knowledge available,...
...but it should be written down, how sectoral composition
was decided
EU Adaptation Strategy
The general aim
To enhance the preparedness and capacity to respond to
the impacts of climatic change at EU, Member State,
regional and local levels
The basis
Commission White Paper (2009)
• 4 pillar action plan: knowledge base, mainstreaming,
international cooperation, policy instruments
• 33 long-term actions
• implementation from 2009-2012.
The objectives
(1) Knowledge Improve and widen the knowledge base and identify gaps
Further the understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation options
Facilitate knowledge use and exchange
(2) Policy and markets Mainstream adaptation into policies at EU level, including revision of
legislation to include climate adaptation
Identify potential adaptation actions to make markets work more efficiently
(3) Cooperation and facilitation Facilitate cooperation with and between Member States, regions, cities and
other relevant stakeholders
Provide guidelines for adaptation
Roadmap
March 2013
Adoption of the STRATEGY
Background studies Consultations Cooperation with
Commission services
Impact Assessment to IA Board
START January 2012
EU Adaptation Strategy
Online public consultation May 21 to August 20 2012:
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/consultations/0015/index_en.htm
Intermediate key messages
43
EAS can help framing NAS, but
EAS can never be a substitutioin for NAS
Guidelines for setting up NAS are valuable
GO-ADAPT
Core objective: How do OECD countries meet the challenges
that adaptation governance brings about?
Challenges can be grouped in four categories:
1. Horizontal integration across different sectors
2. Vertical integration across policy scales (local-
regional/provincial-national-(EU-global))
3. (traditional) knowledge integration/uncertainties/scientific
evidence and confidence
4. Participation of the people concerned and affected
Results from project Go-adapt
Goal: Overview about governance approaches for climate change
adaptation in selected countries
10 OECD countries: ‘adaptation frontrunners’
Document analysis: scientific papers, policy documents, government
reports and internet documentation + semi-structured interviews with
administrative staff (state-of-the-art: 2010)
Political frame AU
National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2007-2012/14)
AT Österreichische Anpassungsstrategie (2012)
CA National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2005)
ES National Plan for Adaptation, including Working Programme I (2006) and II (2009)
DE Deutsche Anpassungsstrategie (2008), Aktionsplan (2011)
DK Danish Strategy for Adaptation to a Changing Climate (2008)
FI National Adaptation Strategy (2005)
NL
National adaptation strategy ‘Make room for Climate’ (2007)
Delta programme (2009) Delta Act (2012)
NO Klimatilpasning I Norge (2008)
UK
Climate Change Act (2008) Adapting to Climate Change: A framework
for Action (2008) National Adaptation Programme (expected
in 2013)
NAS
All NAS are framing documents
Majority has a soft, non-binding and advising character
Follow-up: work programmes, action plans, sectoral programmes, monitoring and evaluation
Legal frame
Only in NL and UK legally binding
UK: Climate Change Act 2008
NL: Delta Act
Responsibilities AU Government Department for Climate Change
AT Bundesministerium für Landwirtschaft,
Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Wasser
CA Natural Resources Canada, Environment
Canada
ES Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea,
Spanish Office on Climate Change (OECC)
DE Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz
und Reaktorsicherheit
DK Ministry for Climate Change
FI Ministry of Forestry and Agriculture
NL
Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water
Management (initially: Ministry of Housing,
Spatial Planning and the Environment*)
NO Ministry of Environment
UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs (DEFRA)
Responsibilities are different:
in 6 countries – adaptation and mitigation policies in the same ministry
in 4 countries – adaptation and mitigation policies in different ministries
operational support from other public entities (e.g. EPAs)
Adaptation as coordination effort
NAS act as catalysts for the adaptation processes
‚traditional‘ governance approaches:
Strategies (NAS, mitigation, other strategies tackling climate change
adaptation)
Boards (inter-ministerial, federal-provincial, advisory boards/consulting
bodies
Consultations (classical stakeholder consultations)
New governance approaches:
Transdisciplinar (research) programmes (i.e. cooperation of scientists,
planners, decision makers and practicionners on project basis)
partnerships
„Adaptation opens new ways of cooperation“
What are partnerships and what is expected from establishing them?
partnership =
Permanent connection of transdisciplinary (science, policy, society)
stakeholders
Cooperation and CSO/NGO steering in a broadly defined field of work
(such as adaptation)
Often in geographic boundary/regional co-operations
CFE should be regarded as partnership and ‚give birth‘ to regionally
focussed (transdisciplinar) adaptation initiatives that might neglect
adminstrative borders
expectations
Reaction towards limited governmental problem solution capacity for
complex challenges effective, inclusive and legitimate
Innovative solutions and policies
Examples for regional partnerships
GB: Regional Climate Change
Partnerships (RCCP)
Canada: Regional Adaptation
Collaboratives (RAC)
Since 1999
Initiative for regional administrative units from UKCIP; support from Defra (since 2008) = bottom-up
11 partnerships
Goal: analysis and consulting for regional impacts and adaptation options
Broad thematic focus (tourism, planning, water, private companies/industry, etc.)
2009 - 2012
Intiated through RAC-Program of NRCAN = top-down
6 partnerships
Goal: cooperation to establish regional adaptation planning and decision support
Thematic focus on water management
Bauer, A., Feichtinger, J. & R. Steurer (2012)
Strengths and challenges of regional partnerships strengths
Addresses horizontal and
vertical fragmentation of
competences
Plenty of actors get involved
Flexibility
Reacts to local requirements
Strategically at
regional/national level
Mutual trust among key
actors
challenges
Inclusion of the non-interested
Sustainable engagement
Connection to national scale
Different background of the partners with regard to knowledge, resources, interests and activities
Common language
Lacking awareness for adaptation
Finances/Ressources
Intermediate key messages and Q
Regional partnerships for CCIVA are important
coordination mechanisms for actors within and
among policy scales
Regional partnerships might boost innovation and
diffusion of adaptation policies and -measures
NGOs/CSOs play a vital role in steering these
partnerships and could act as information
broker/translator, mediator, moderator
How is the chance for regional partnerships across
borders in CFE countries?
Summarizing recommendations -1
Plan adaptation as (cyclical) process along the policy cycle and make use of EU/UN guidance
Take care to integrate the adaptation process vertically (policy scales from local to supranational), horizontally (across partaking/impacted) sectors and transdisciplinary (policy makers, practitioners, companies, affected people and multi-disciplinar research teams)
Consider regional (meaning sub-national as well as cross-border) partnerships in which to integrate CSOs/NGOs as potential leaders as well as governance at all policy scales
Summarizing recommendations -2
Urge your government as well as other funders (private funding organisations, donators,…) to accompany the adaptation process with an applied (transdisciplinar) research programme as well as with fundamental research (e.g. for climate and economic modelling)
Once the adaptation process gets started, seek for ‘windows of opportunity’ to mainstream adaptation in other policy domains, look for synergies and make sure adaptation process does not become a singular/stand-alone/one-shot exercise
Aim at an integrative process and involve all relevant institutions and players (note that this complicates the process and might lead to some compromises, but is essential for political commitment for the NAS)
Summarizing recommendations -3
Link up with international processes and showcase your national adaptation process and efforts
Take care for awareness raising in your country, collaborate closely with the media and aim at roadshows and public consultations
Disseminate results adequately to different target groups/social milieus. Note for example that heat-stressed elderly people might not use the internet and that dissemination material should be tailor-made to at least the most important social milieus in your country
Try to get an overview of the damages/costs of weather events in your country, project costs by applying climate damage triggers projection to cost-relevant impact chains (climate scenarios) and socio-economic scenarios. Note: This helps to get high-level political commitment
References
Bauer, A., Feichtinger, J. & R. Steurer (2012): The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation in 10 OECD Countries: Challenges and Approaches. Journal of Environmental Polocy & Planning.
Bednar-Friedl, B., Koland, O., König, M., Raab, J. (2011): The Social Costs of Adaptation: Approaches to an Evaluation of Adaptation Options. (Publication in German).
EU(COM) (2013): An EU strategy on adaptation to climate change.
ETC/ACC (2010): Guiding principles for adaptation to climate change in Europe. Technical paper 2010/6.
Prutsch, A., Felderer, A., Balas, M., König, M., Clar, C. & R. Steurer (2013): Methods and tools for adaptation to climate change. Environment Agency Austria, Vienna. (Publication in German).
Pringle, P. (2011): AdaptME: Adaptation monitoring and evaluation toolkit. UKCIP, Oxford, UK.
UKCIP (2010): The UKCIP Adaptation Wizard V 3.0, UKCIP, Oxford
UN LDC expert group (2012): National Adaptation Plans
58
Umweltbundesamt www.umweltbundesamt.at
CFE Regional CVA workshop Batumi/Georgia ■ Jul 8-9 2013
Contact & Information
Dipl.-Geogr. Martin König
+43 1 31304 5961
www.klimawandelanpassung.at
Dr. Klaus Radunsky
+43 1 31304 5534
59
Umweltbundesamt www.umweltbundesamt.at/klima
CFE Regional CVA workshop Batumi/Georgia ■ Jul 8-9 2013