Losee youngeng v4_slideshare

How can engineers grasp the challenge of climate change?

Scott Losee, Presentation to Young Engineers, Queensland Art Gallery

30/4/2015

Scott LoseeConsultingHow can you grasp it?

Be an applied scientist

Think about what the climate means

Be systematic

Scott LoseeConsulting

loseeconsulting.com.au

Be an applied scientist

The iron ring

Image: 01:52 – Engineer by That Guy Who’s Going Places on Flickr

'...I will not henceforward suffer or

pass, or be privy to the passing of,

Bad Workmanship or Faulty Material

in aught that concerns my works

before mankind as an Engineer...‘

— Kipling

Image: Craig Gilbert Photography

Wreckage of Cyclone Yasi, 2011

Image: http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/national/andrew-bolt-breached-discrimination-act-court/story-e6frg15u-1226148978809

‘Global warming halted 17 years ago.’

— Bolt

AR5830 scientists

1,000 contributing authors

1,000 expert reviewers

30,000 scientific papers

‘Warming of the climate system is

unequivocal, and since the

1950s, many of the observed

changes are unprecedented over

decades to millennia. The

atmosphere and ocean have

warmed, the amounts of snow

and ice have diminished, and sea

level has risen.’

‘Engineers have an ethical

responsibility for, and play a key

role in, limiting atmospheric

greenhouse gas concentrations...’

‘Engineers should include risk

analysis and advice of the likely

impacts of climate change in their

work.’



Think about what the climate means

2055

2095

2015

‘25 ‘35 ‘45 ‘65 ‘75 ‘85



40 years: your career

100 Years: life of infrastructure you design…

Palaszczuk government

Abbott government



People retiring nowstarted in 1975

Image: www.rediffusion.info/WestMidlands

1975

2015

1935

‘45 ‘55 ‘65 ‘85 ‘95 ‘05


2015

2055

1975

‘85 ‘95 ‘05 ‘25 ‘35 ‘45


Observations

Projections

Understanding climate variability and climate change

1975

2015

1935

‘45 ‘55 ‘65 ‘85 ‘95 ‘05


Cyclones

Meteorology for Brisbane over past 80 years

1975

2015

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El Niño

La Niña

Cyclones


1975

2015

1935

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El Niño

La Niña

Cyclones

Cool PDO

Warm PDO


2055

2095

2015

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Global emissions trajectory RCP8.5 scenario

30

Glo

bal C

O2 e

miss

ions

(GtC

y-1)

0

15


2055

2095

2015

‘25 ‘35 ‘45 ‘65 ‘75 ‘85

Unique and threatened systems

Extreme weather events

Global impacts (biodiversity, economy)

Level of additional risk due to climate change for ‘Reasons for Concern’

Distribution of impacts (some vs. all regions)

Large-scale singular events

Very high riskHigh riskModerate risk

IPCC AR5 WR2 (RCP8.5)


2055

2095

2015

‘25 ‘35 ‘45 ‘65 ‘75 ‘85


Temperature change

+? ° +??? °

El Niño

Warm PDO

But averages may not be the main concern…



Be systematic

Scott LoseeConsultingIPCC description of risk

Source: IPCC 5AR WGII Fig. 19-1, 2014

Scott LoseeConsultingRisk assessment

Risk Climate Likelihood Consequence

Influences Responsesf ,( )

Weather events

Climatic conditions

Asset

Environmental

Human

Damage

Health

Financial loss

Compliance

Reputation

Scott LoseeConsultingRisk matrix

LikelihoodConsequences

Insignificant (1) Minor (2) Moderate (3) Major (4) Severe (5)

Rare (1) Low - 1 Low - 2 Low - 3 Low - 4 Low - 5

Unlikely (2) Low - 2 Low - 4 Low - 6 Moderate - 8 Moderate - 10

Possible (3) Low - 3 Moderate - 6 Moderate - 9 Moderate - 12 Significant - 15

Likely (4) Low - 4 Moderate - 8 Moderate - 12 Significant - 16 High - 20

Almost certain (5) Low - 5 Moderate - 10 Significant - 15 High - 20 High - 25



Coal mine example

Image: Mining Mayhem


Coal mine example(Central Qld)

Source of climate risk Parameter Average

Total El Niño La Niña

Intense rainfall No. days with rainfall >25 mm 5 days 50% 30% 80%

Cyclones No. cyclones per season within 400 km 0.6 cyclones 40% 40% 70%

High temperatures No. days max. temp. >35 °C 50 days 50% 80% 10%

Drought No. months rainfall <= 5th percentile over month 0.9 months 60% 80% 30%

Strong winds No. days wind speed >8 m/s 23 days 30% 30% 70%

Damaging winds No. days wind speed >25 m/s 0.2 days 10% 10% 10%

Probability parameter exceeded

Scott LoseeConsultingExample results for mine

Impact Description Likelihood Consequence Risk rating

Disruption of operations due to flooding Likely Minor MODERATE

Reduced water availability for mine site operations Possible Moderate MODERATE

Increased equipment outages due to storm activity Almost certain Minor MODERATE

Infrastructure damage due to cyclones and severe storm events Likely Moderate MODERATE

Disruption of operations issues due to bushfire Possible Minor LOW

Increased dust levels causing disruption to operations Possible Minor LOW

Decreased workforce productivity relating to higher temperatures Possible Minor LOW

Higher instance of spontaneous combustion in stockpiles Possible Minor LOW

Increased operations costs relating to energy requirements Possible Minor LOW

Power outages due to increased energy demand caused by higher temperatures Possible Minor LOW



Quarry example

Image: Westera Partners, West Burleigh Quarry works


Extractive industry example(SE Qld)

Source of climate risk Parameter Average

El Niño La Niña

Intense rainfall No. days with rainfall >25 mm 10 days 27% 60%

Cyclones No. cyclones per season within 400 km

1.3 cyclones 26% 43%

High temperatures No. days max. temp. >35 °C 1 day 22% 25%

Drought No. months rainfall <= 5th percentile over month

0.5 months 62% 35%

Strong winds No. days wind speed >8 m/s c 59 days 56% 55%

Damaging winds No. days wind speed >25 m/s 0.1 days 6% 9%

Probability parameter exceeded

Scott LoseeConsultingExample results for quarry

Impact description Unmitigated risk Mitigated risk

Dust production due to prolonged dry spells and wind MODERATE LOW

Water supply constraint for process use and dust suppression due to drought MODERATE LOW

Uncontrolled discharge from storage dam and/or sediment pond SIGNIFICANT MODERATE

Flooding of pit MODERATE LOW

Erosion or failure of slopes and haul roads MODERATE LOW

Loss of grid power to operations MODERATE LOW

Scott LoseeConsultingExample recommendations

1. Proceed to detailed risk assessment

2. Prioritise hydraulic design recognising La Niña conditions

3. Set up a weather intelligence system

4. Water conservation measures

5. Include climate risk in management systems

6. Periodically update risk assessment and adaptation actions

Building example

Scott LoseeConsultingAdaptation pathway concept

Source: M. Haasnoot, J.H. Kwakkel, W.E. Walker, J. and ter Maat, Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world, Global Environmental Change. 23(2) (2013) 485–498


Partial adaptation pathwayfor a building


Corresponding adaptation actions

Climate risk assessment updates Maintain access to increase size of downpipes, overflows and outlets

Landscape plan to address blowing debris from garden areas Confirm sizing of air-cooled HVAC

Use Prototype Mock-Up to test intense winds

Plan for review of glass technology and upgrade if cost-effective

Investigate new gasket technology Install an energy management system and smart metering

Use frits on the glass awning HVAC plant replacement strategy that accounts for revised climate data

Check overcapacity in outlets Reticulating, closed loop for greenwallA6

A1

A2

A3

A4

A5

A12

A7

A8

A9

A10

A11


Science

Thinking

Systems

Thank you

Questions

Keep in [email protected]

0404 467 228

au.linkedin.com/in/scottlosee

@Scott_Losee