THE KWADUKUZA LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

SECOND IMBIZO: CATCHING UP FROM THE FIRST IMBIZO

SCENARIOS PROCESS PLAN

PHASESPhase 1: Setting up the Conversation

Phase 2: Coming to terms with the challenges

Phase 3: Talking through the 2030 End State VisionPhase 4: Working the conversation back to today Phase 5: Closure

It is not yet here ?

It is has gone past ?

It is moving now ?

TRANSITION

Past Present Future

TRANSITION IMPLIES

• Systems that change in interconnected ways

TRANSITION IMPLIES

• An inevitable destination

• An unpredictable Journey

Transition is slow + simple• Past is clear

• Present is obvious

• Future can be predicted

Transition is fast + complex •Past needs thought•Present is not so obvious

•Future is uncertain : SCENARIOS

GLOBAL TRANSITION

DRIVERS

• reaching peak population

• facing the challenge of a transition to sustainability

• on the planet boundary

• life has been getting better for more people faster than ever before and will probably continue to do so

• technology and innovation: a matter of time & market

• one world one social network

• the off grid village

• multi polar global order

1771 Industrial Revolution

1829 Start of Age of Steam and Railways

1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering

1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production

1971 Age of Information & Telecommunications

2013 Midpoint of Age of Information & Telecommunications

2020 Era of Turbulence

2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?

MID CENTURY

Midpoint of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?

AFRICA IN TRANSITION

1,2 Billion Africans today

2,1 Billion Africans by 2050

1,23 Billion African City Dwellers by 2050

SOUTH AFRICA IN TRANSITION

Cheap Coal

Electricity

Cheap Labour

Minerals Export

Resource curse

Huge Carbon

Footprint

MINERALS ENERGY COMPLEX

A SMALL AFRICAN COUNTRY

• Population Stable & Ageing

• Gets dwarfed in the African context to MID CENTURY Country Population (millions)*

2012 2030 MID CENTURY

GAIN 2012 -MID CENTURY

SOUTH AFRICA

50 54 56 +6

TANZANIA

47 81 138 +91

NIGERIA 166 257 389 +223* UN Projections 2012

YEAR GLOBAL TRANSITION YEAR SOUTH AFRICA TRANSITION

1771 Industrial Revolution    1829 Start of Age of Steam &

Rail   

1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering

   

1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production

1905 Mining Economy + Union of South Africa

    1930 Resource Based Manuf.     1960 Republic of South Africa1971 Age of Information &

Telecommunications1971 Resource Based Services

Economy

2013  Midpoint of Age of Information & Telecp

1994 Democratic Elections

2020 Era of Turbulence  2020  A Perfect Storm ?

2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?

2030 An African Knowledge & Finance Capital ?

MID CENTURY

Midpoint of Age of Biotech and Renewable Energy?

 2050  A Wealthy African Region ?

THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR 2030

• Additional 40 000 MW electricity required by 2030, at least 50% ( 20 000 MW) to come from Renewable Energy (RE)

• PGDS indicates 5,000 of that in KZN: sugar industry and timber industry has put 2000MW on the table

• Accelerate IPP (Independent Power Producer) procurement

• Durban Port Capacity from 3 to 20 million containers per annum by 2040 & expanded Richards Bay coal

export

• Peak Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2025

• Carbon Pricing Mechanisms to drive energy efficiency , economy-wide carbon price by 2030

• Zero Emission Building Standards by 2030

• Southern Africa Intra Regional trade to increase from 7 % to 25% by 2030

• SA Trade with regional neighbours to increase from 15% to 30%

If the SADC were to follow the Brazilian model over the next 20

years, with 60 percent of petrol being derived from ethanol and all growth in demand captured by ethanol….

• it would require the construction of about 120 mills that have the

capacity to produce 320 000 tons sugar per annum, create 1,8 million new direct jobs, and at least as many indirect jobs.

• The associated power generation would be equal to Medupi and Kusile

combined, which equates to approximately 9 500 MW.• For South Africa, it would provide between 13 and 25 percent of the

required carbon footprint reduction needed to meet the target

which the country committed to during COP 15 (Copenhagen, 2009).

• Large scale ethanol production requires a regional ethanol regime. Some 70 percent of the market for ethanol lies in South Africa, with the bulk of the production potential lying within other SADC countries such as Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Angola

KWADUKUZA IN TRANSITION

Corridor Transition

Period

World Transition Transport Driver Urban Response

1.Birth

1680 – 1840

Ox Wagon & Horse Kraal, Farm, Garrison Town

2. Urbanisation

1860 -1940

Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering

Hard Road & Railway Line

Factory & Traditional Villages & High Streets

3. City Integration

1940 – 1980

Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production

Commuter Rail / Bus Corridor Industrialisation

Satellite Towns & North Coast Corridor Emergence

4. Metro Sprawl

1980 – 2020

Age of Information & Telecommunications

Motor Corridor, Mini Bus Taxi, Airport & Tradeport

North Coast Corridor Fragmentation

5. Metro Compaction

2020 – 2030

Era of Turbulence Bus Rapid Transit, New Trains, Smart Transport Systems

Corridor Regeneration

6. Africanisation

2030 - 2040

Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?

Fast Rail, Smart Vehicles

Off Grid Satellite Towns

7. Regionalism

2040 +

Midpoint of Age of Biotech and Renewable Energy?

Walking & Cycling Urban Villages

DRIVERS

1. Cross border inter-governmental collaboration2. Compact settlement, growth management and public

transport3. Capacity building and awareness raising 4. Climate change adaptation5. Green building, green development and energy

efficiency6. Inclusive Growth and Green Job Creation7. Monitoring, Evaluation and Enforcement 8. Municipal capacity for effective planning9. Quality of life, resource security and access to services 10. Renewable Energy, Biofuel, Energy Cogeneration and

Green Industry11. Rural Development and Sustainable Agriculture

SARVA Map indicating minimum likely Climatic Changes for the period 2070-2100

• The mean annual temperature for KwaDukuza is projected to increase

between 1.7 and 2.7°C by 2060’s and 3.0 to 4.5°C by the 2090’s. • This warming is expected to be similar

throughout the year, although it will be more pronounced inland compared to the coastal regions.

• The number of “hot” days and nights will also continue to increase

• Dryer soils • Water availability • Flooding • Reduced • Heat stress • Pest and disease • Extreme events • Water quality - Changes in the frequency of

intense rainfall events, particularly following periods of dry weather, could contribute to increased nutrient runoff from agricultural land, which may affect local water quality. As well as harming biodiversity and ecosystems, this may affect the quality of water abstracted downstream.

KZN GREEN ECONOMY STRATEGY

• by 2025, KwaZulu- Natal will be a province where the economy provides ‘green’ economic growth.

• there is only one economy – the green economy, which means that the current economy must be re-orientated to become the green economy.

• become increasingly competitive and resilient, by:

• Increasing resource use efficiency

• Increasing the supply of renewable energy;

• Securing the supply of ecosystem services from the province’s natural assets; and

• Reducing environmental and climate related risks; and in so doing

• Create sustainable jobs for local people;

• Reduce poverty; and

• Address social equity throughout all regions of the province.

Participlan Exercise: what are the key low emission and development outcome possibilities and uncertainties for

KwaDukuza 2030?

Driver Impact Uncertainty Impact x Uncertainty

Ranking

Monitoring, regulation & evaluation (later added: incentives)

12 8 76 2

Educations 11 1 11 9Planning 4 4 16 8Quality of life 4 1 4 14Reduced use of fossil fuels 6 3 18 6

Inter-departmental collaboration

1 1 1 15

Public transport 6 3 18 6Sustainable development 6 5 30 4

Tourism 5 1 5 13Population growth 1 0 1 15Compact, dense city 9 1 9 10Green economy 11 2 22 5Mindset change 16 13 208 1Health 7 0 7 11Natural resource scarcity 9 6 54 3

Green buildings and development

6 0 6 12

42

Umuzi wengce

bo (House

of Wealth)

Umuzi Wobubh

a(House

of Poverty)

Umuzi Wenxushunxushu (House

of conflict)

Positive Shared Mindset towards Low Carbon Actions

Great monitoring, regulation & incentives

Bad monitoring, regulation & incentives

Negative Fragmented Mindset towards Low Carbon Actions

KWADUKUZA 2030 LEDS SCENARIOS

43

Umuzi wengce

bo (House

of Wealth)

Umuzi Wobubh

a(House

of Poverty)

Umuzi Wenxushunxushu (House

of conflict)

Positive Shared Mindset towards Low Carbon Actions

Great monitoring, regulation & incentives

Bad monitoring, regulation & incentives

Negative Fragmented Mindset towards Low Carbon Actions

• Collective Thinking & Partnership : Ubuntu

• indigenous knowledge systems whilst Embracing green technology

• Effective Growth Management

• Green Economy • Public Transport • Innovation • Biodiversity

• “Don’t give a damn” attitude

• arrogance• Weak leadership• Corruption• Mired in legal disputes • No concern for future

generations• Rigid in beliefs• illegal activities• Government /

Business / Community tensions

• Selfish,  self-centered, pessimistic, careless, greedy values

• lack of accountability & responsibility,

• destructive non-compliant, reckless behaviour

• Chaotic Unplanned Development

• Old Economy • Motor Car is King

•

• Parallel world- good institutional set-up but lack of action

• Talk Shop • Inequality Remains • Non Compliant 20 %

cause 80% of the Problem

• Technically resourceful/efficient

KWADUKUZA 2030 SCENARIOS

15:15 – 15:45Revisiting the Four 2030 Scenarios: An Integrated Perspective

Shahid Solomon, Novation 2050

15:45 – 16:30Articulating the 2030 LEDS Vision and Agreeing Indicators of Success

Group Work

16:30 – 17:00Closing remarks and summary

Shahid Solomon, Novation 2050

UMUZI WENGCEBO VISION GROUPS

1. How will we be working together?• Local Partnerships • Regional Partnerships • Capacity building and awareness • Monitoring, Evaluation and Enforcement • Municipal capacity for effective planning

2. How will Kwadukuza look, feel and function?• Compact settlement, growth management and public transport• Green building, green development and energy efficiency• Quality of life, resource security and access to services

3. How will the economy be generating growth and jobs?• Inclusive Growth and Green Job Creation• Renewable Energy, Biofuel, Energy Cogeneration and Green

Industry

4. What will have happened to our natural resources? • Climate change adaptation

• Rural Development and Sustainable Agriculture

  Day Two Back-casting: what milestones need to be achieved by 2020 in order to be on track to the 2030 Vision?

TeaParticiplan: what are the tough choices that need to be made in the next 6 months – two years in order to achieve the 2020 milestones?Proposal : Four 2020 Tough Choice Scenarios

LunchPlotting a Trajectory  from 2013 to 2020 and 2030 to Achieve the Vision Scenario: The KwaDukuza Success Story as we want it to be written

TeaWhat levers (policy, regulations, partnerships, IGR mechanisms, funding sources) are available / can be put in place to deliver on the best 2020 choice scenario? What are reasonable time frames to get these levers in place?Key Next Steps and Responsibilities

THANK YOU