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Use of Maximum Entropy software with ten environmental layers in Great Smoky Mountains National Park to determine forest communities and areas of subsequent decline.
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Forest Loss by Community Type in Great Smoky Mountains National Park
Tanner JesselSchool of Information Sciences
Ephraim LoveDepartment of Geology
The University of Tennessee
Hemlock Forest Change in GSMNP
Source: Global Biodiversity Information Facility
Where is Forest Decline Occurring?
LANDSAT data characterizing forest change
Where is Hemlock Decline Occurring?
Hemlock Wooly Adelgid
Adelgid Impact to Landscape
Source: LANDSAT program
Where Does Hemlock Occur?
Satellite image of Great Smoky Mountains
Source: GRSM Overstory Vegetation Map
Remote Sensing
Polygons depicting Hemlock Distribution
Source: ATBI Database
Physical Inventory
Visualization of 1,017 Hemlock occurrences
Source: Maxent output
Predictive Modeling
Predictive model of Hemlock
Source: Maxent output
Predictive Modeling
Predictive model of Hemlock
Environmental Variables• Continuous– Digital Elevation
Model– Solar radiation– Topographic
convergence index
• Categorical– Bedrock geology– Soil organic type– Slope in degrees– Terrain shape index– Leaf on canopy cover– Understory density– Vegetation classes
Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Environmental Variables
Digital Elevation Model
Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Environmental Variables
Solar input
Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Environmental Variables
Slope in degrees
Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Environmental Variables
Bedrock Geology
Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Environmental Variables
Soil organic type
Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Environmental Variables
Topographic convergence index
Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Environmental Variables
Terrain shape index
Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Environmental Variables
Vegetation class
Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Environmental Variables
Understory density
Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Environmental Variables
Leaf-on canopy cover
Source: Alltaxa Web Interface
Contribution
Contributions of environmental layers to model
Source: ATBI database
Occurrence Records
Point Data
Source: ATBI Database, GRSM Hemlock Forest Polygon
Accuracy?
Physical inventory vs. remote-sensing
Source: Maxent output, ATBI occurrence records, GRSM polygons
Accuracy?
Prediction model versus remote sensing
Research Question
Can forest loss be quantified in context of community structure?• Mesic (Cove Hardwood)• Xeric (Pine)
Forest Communities• Cove Hardwood
– Sugar maple– Yellow buckeye– American beech– Fraser magnolia– Silverbell– American basswood– Tulip tree– Birch– Ash
• Pine– Shortleaf pine– Table Mountain
pine– Pitch pine– Eastern white pine– Virginia Pine
Source: ATBI database, maxent output
Sugar Maple
Acer saccharum records
Source: ATBI database, maxent output
Yellow Buckeye
Aesculus flava specimens
Source: ATBI database, maxent output
American Beech
Fagus grandiflora, specimens
Source: ATBI database, maxent output
Fraser Magnolia
Magnolia tripetala records
Source: ATBI database, maxent output
Silverbell
Halesia carolina records
Source: ATBI database, maxent output
American Basswood
Tilia americana records
Source: ATBI database, maxent output
Tulip Tree
Liriodendron chinense records
Source: ATBI database, maxent output
Ash
Fraxinus americana spp.
Source: ATBI database, maxent output
All Birch Species
Betula spp. records
Source: ATBI database, maxent output
All Pine Species
Pinus spp. records
Source: Maxent output processed in Modelbuilder
Threshold
Boundary of likely present / likely absent
Source: All birch trees SDM from maxent, processed by modelbuilder
All Birch Map
All birch trees
Source: Model Builder Output
Combined Birch-Hemlock Map
Birch and Hemlock Together
Source: Raw data, unpublished model output
Pine-Hemlock v. Birch-Hemlock
All pine with hemlock, all birch with hemlock
Source: Maxent output, processed by modelbuilder
Forest Loss by Community
Forest loss in Mesic vs. Xeric
Source: Modelbuilder
Modelbuilder
Model overview
Source: Modelbuilder
Modelbuilder
Model overview
Source: Modelbuilder
Modelbuilder
Model overview
Questions?• Slides Available
Online