Upload
andrea-moretto
View
41
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Go backwardto move forward!
MSc Andrea MorettoKeen on
Renewablesand
Sustainable Mobility
2014
Once upon a time
100% renewable
Non portable
AD3000 BC 2000 AD
Watermill
Windmill
Muscle power
Wood
2014 Andrea Moretto
The Industrial Revolution
The Industrial Revolution was “the transition to new manufacturing processes in the period from about 1760 to sometime between 1820 and 1840”
= GROWING POWER DEMAND
2014 Andrea Moretto
XX century
Non renewablePortable
AD3000 BC 2000 AD
2014 Andrea Moretto
Uses of petroleum
GASOLINE: Is the most commonly used product for day to day transportation needsDIESEL FUEL: used in medium- and heavy-duty vehicles BUNKER FUEL: used to power ships.JET FUEL: the standard type of jet fuel, with addittives
HEATING OIL: used to fuel furnaces or boilers
PLASTICS: all plastic, unless it is “bio plastic”, is made from petrochemicalsDETERGENT: derived from the petrochemical glycerinSYNTHETIC RUBBER: used for car tires and rubber soles on shoesSYNTHETIC FIBERS: polyester, nylon, and acrylic are all derived from petrochemicalsFERTILIZERS & PESTICIDES: major commercial fertilizers are ammonia based, made from natural gas, and most commercial pesticides come from oilPAINT: plastic and oil based paints, as well as paint additives, are manufactured from petrochemicals.PHOTOGRAPHIC FILM: petrochemical ethylene is what is used in photographic filmFOOD ADDITIVES: the shelf life of canned foods can be increased by food additivesMAKE UP: make-up’s that contain oils, perfumes, waxes and colorMEDICINE: acetylsalicylic acid (ASA), the active ingredient in many pain reliever medicinesCANDLES: wax is a raw petroleum product
Green House Green house is a good idea
(earth avg surface T from -18°C to +14°C) Issue is the anthropic addition to normal
cycles, primarily due to fossil fuels combustion (CO2)
CO2 peak level of last 400.000 years was 300 ppm; in 60 years this grew to ~400 ppm
Source: 2014, http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators
GH consequences
Source: 2014, http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators
Global warming
Artic ice thinning Sea level increase
Global Climate Change: Future Trends
Phenomena Likelihood of trend
Contraction of snow cover areas, increased thaw in permafrost regions, decrease in sea ice extent
Virtually certain
Increased frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation
Very likely to occur
Increase in tropical cyclone intensity Likely to occur
Precipitation increases in high latitudes Very likely to occur
Precipitation decreases in subtropical land regions
Very likely to occur
Decreased water resources in many semi-arid areas, including western U.S. and Mediterranean basin
High confidence
Source: Summary for Policymakers, IPCC Synthesis report, November 2007http://www.ipcc.ch/
Definitions of likelihood ranges used to express the assessed probability of occurrence:
• virtually certain >99%• very likely >90%• likely >66%
“At the end of the last ice age, when the Northeast United States was covered by more than 900 m of ice, average temperatures were only 5÷9 °C cooler than today”
Philippines 2013
Sardinia 2013
Bavaria 2013«In nature, nothing is created,
nothing is destroyed, everything is transformed»
Antoine Lavoisier
“Satellite observations suggest a
1 °C temperature increase means a 6% increase in both atmospheric water vapor & rainfall/evaporation rates”
http://eo.ucar.edu/staff/rrussell/beta/evaporation_rate/evaporation_rate.html
Why PV is great!~17x 1GW nuclear power plants @ 2013
1. > 130 GWp in operation worldwide, proven viable2. 100% free and renewable source3. non monopolistic-distributed generation4. solid state technology based, subject to continous
performance improvements and cost decrease5. close to end-user with low grid delivery losses6. safe, no relevant by-products7. durable, low maintenance, static components (>25y)8. ~100% fully recyclable [Si, Al, Ag, Cu, EVA]9. short energy payback (< 2 years)10. 5x Italian surface as PV would fulfill word’s 2050 electric
energy demands
PV limitations
1. non adjustable (need external accumulation)
2. not predictable (subject to sun availability)
Batteries (chemical/phisical)
Water resevoirs
Electricity for lighting accounts for ~15 % of global power consumption and 5 % of worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.If a global transition to efficient lighting occurred, these emissions could be reduced by over one-third.
Lighting and global electricity consumption
Source: http://www.enlighten-initiative.org/
55
Transportation energy demands
Source: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2013, 25 July 2013
EIA, July 2013:“world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040,CO2 up 46%;use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%”
<500M people
~1500M people
~1500M people
Population
MbpdMillion barrels per day
2010 A 2040 F 30y variation
USA 18 899 18 635 -1,4 %
China 9 330 19 788 +112,1 %
India 3 225 8 223 +155,0 %
Liquid fuel demands
Source: IEO2013-World liquids consumption by region, Reference case data table
Energy ƞ for transportation purposes
Max well-to-wheel efficiency ~35% for Otto and 50% for DieselActual efficiency 20-40% depending on fuel and technology
Max well-to-wheel efficiency >90%Current efficiency 75-80% (inc. battery rech.) up to 88% with regenerative breaking
ICE
BEV
Final energy balance(best case)
As utility companies build more efficient power plants and bring more renew. online, the primary-to-wheel efficiency will significantly increase.
100 33÷60
100
100
∞
30÷40-
29÷53
88
Primary Secondary Utilized
Oil prices +50%People +30% vs 2010
People in cities +40% vs 2010
Energy needs 3x vs 2010
Electricity needs 9x vs 2010
> 1/3 will be BE Vehicles
> 40% of energy from RENEWABLES
BATTERY costs -70%
2050 will be...
Source: National Geographic Energy Challenge 2013
2050 energy mix?
#1 !
2x
½ x HC
1x 3x
Source: National Geographic Energy Challenge 2013