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FuturePlace|SmartCi0esvs.SmarterCi0zensInsightsfromMul0pleExpertDiscussions30March2016|Dubai Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram
FuturePlace|SmartCi0esvs.SmarterCi0zensThistalkprovidesasummaryofwhatweheardfrommul0pleexpert
voicesaroundtheworld–onhowci0esarechanging,whatisdrivingthischange,wherewillbetheimpactsandhowandwhythesemayevolveoverthenextdecade.
FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram
thataccessesmul0pleviewsofthenextdecadesowecanallbebeKerinformedands0mulateinnova0on.
LookingForwardsOrganisa0onsincreasinglywanttoiden0fyandunderstand
boththean0cipatedandunexpectedchangessothattheycanbebeKerpreparedforthefuture.
FutureAgendainNumbersThefirstFutureAgendaprogrammeengagedawiderangeofviewsin
25countries.FutureAgenda2.0hasdoubledtheface-to-faceinterac0onandsignificantlyraisedonlinesharing,debateanddiscussion.
FutureAgenda1.01HOST16TOPICS25COUNTRIES50WORKSHOPS1500ORGANISATIONS
FutureAgenda2.050HOSTS24TOPICS45CITIESIN35COUNTRIES120WORKSHOPS5000ORGANISATIONS
FUTUREPLACE|DRIVERSOFCHANGE
ImbalancedPopula0onGrowthAgrowingpopula0onaddsanotherbillionpeoplebutitisalsorapidlyageing:achildbornnextyearwilllive6monthslongerthanoneborntoday.Whilemigra0onhelpstorebalance,increasingdependencyra0oschallengemany.
DevelopingWorldMobilityThisyear32peopleanhourwillbemovingintoShanghai,39intoKinshasaandJakarta,42intoMumbaiandKarachi,
50intoDhakaand58intoLagos.
Accelera0ngDisplacementClimatechange,conflict,resourceshortages,inequalityandpoli0calelitesunableorunwillingtobringaboutnecessarychangealltriggerunprecedentedmigra0ontotheNorth.Overthenext50years,asmanyas1billionpeoplecouldbeonthemove.
InfrastructureDeficitInfrastructureisagainbecomingasourceofcompe00veadvantage.
Emergingeconomiesinvestinnewrailroadsandhighwaysformoreeffec0vemovementofpeopleandgoods,whiledevelopedna0onssufferfrompoorlegacy.
Built-inFlexibilityThepathtoaconnected,accessibleanddistributedinfrastructureisfraughtwithcomplex,costlyandriskyissues:Upgradingandrepurposingsystemsto
makethemmoreopenanddesigningnewbuildingstobemoreflexiblearekey.
AccesstoTransportThewidespreadneedforindividualstotravelshortdistancesbecomesakeyfeatureofurbandesignandregenera0on.Plannersusetransport
infrastructuretoinfluencesocialchangeandlowercarbonliving.
AirQualityRisingairpollu0oninmanyci0esiskillingpeopleandbecomesavisiblecatalystforchangingmind-setsandpoliciesacross
health,energy,transporta0onandurbandesign.
FloodedCi0esThevastmajorityofourci0esarenotpreparedforflooding.Manydistrictsandhouseholdscannolongergetfloodinsuranceandareinjeopardy.
It’sgoingtogetworsebeforeitgetsbeKer.
BasicSanita0onPoorsanita0oncon0nuestoimpactpublichealthandrestrictsocialprogress,
par0cularlyforwomen.Governmentsanddonororganisa0onspriori0semeasurement,educa0onandinnova0oninabidtodrivechange.
Eco-Civilisa0onOverthepast40yearsChinahasgrownapace,mostlywithoutconcernfor
long-termenvironmentalimpacts.However,nowfacedwithmajorchallenges,abrightlightofsustainabledevelopmentisemerging.
Ci0zen-CentricCi0esSuccessfulci0eswillbedesignedaroundtheneedsanddesiresofincreasinglyempoweredandenabledci0zens-whoareexpec0ngpersonalizedservicesfromtheorganisa0onsthatservethem.
IntraCityCollabora0onIncreasingcompe00onbetweenci0esoverridesna0onalboundariesanddrives
change.TheycompetetoaKractthebestbutalsocollaboratetoavoidthedownsideofsuccess–over-crowding,under-resourcingandpollu0on.
EverythingConnectedOver1trillionsensorsareconnectedtomul0plenetworks:everythingthatcanbenefitfromaconnec0onhasone.Wedeliver10,000xmoredata100xmoreeffec0velybutareconcernedaboutthesecurityoftheinforma0onthatflows.
Off-GridPeoplelivingoff-grid,byinequalityorchoice,canexacerbatesocietaldivisionorimproveprivacy,healthandwellbeing.Eitherway,doingsoprovidesfer0legroundforinnova0on.
FUTUREPLACE|SMARTCITIESvs.SMARTERCITIZENS
Paris–TheRoleModel?Formany,theblueprintforthesustainable,livablecity
isParis:ManyurbanplannersandarchitectsseethisasahighlyefficientandsocialurbanmodelthatisaKrac0vetoresidents.
FromCarsToPeopleWeareseeingashifoffocusfromci0esdesignedforcarstoci0es
designedforpeople.TheinfluenceoftheBig3carmakersandmajoroilcompaniesisgivingwaytoanewgroupofauthorita0vebodies.
AutonomousVehiclesTheshiftofullyautonomoustransportisanevolu0onviatruckplatoonsonhighwaysandsmallurbandeliverypods.Connectedcarscreatethenetworkandtestthetechnologiesfortheeventualrevolu0onarydriverlessexperience.
Amsterdam–PeopleCentricTransportOfenseenasEurope’smostsustainablecity,Amsterdamisthegloballeaderinsuppor0ngnon-motorizedtransport.70%ofmobilityinAmsterdamiseitherwalkingorcycling.
TheSmartCityIdealManyseetheperfectsmartcitytobeonewhererenewableenergy
systems,effec0vetransportnetworksanddigitalinfrastructuresallaligntocreateasuper-efficientsustainableenvironmentforeveryone.
GlobalDriversofChangeInthepastfewyearswehaveseenclearprogressontheSmartCi0esambi0on–muchofwhichhasbeenfocused
oncollabora0onwithsomekeymul0na0onals.
Cisco|SongdoSongdoinKoreahasembracedCisco’s‘Smart+Connected’viewofthecity.
Ubiquitousdatasharing,automatedbuildings,high-speednetworksandpervasiveinterac0onareallpartoftheconnectedideal.
IBM|RiodeJaneiroIBM’sSmarterCi0es/SmarterPlanetini0a0vehasbeenembracedbymayorsinmanykeyci0es:Massivesensornetworks,cloud-basedstorageandpredic0veanaly0cshaveallbeencomingtothefore.
Intel|SanJoseIntel’scollabora0onwiththecityofSanJoseisademonstratorof
thecapabilityofthe‘InternetofThings’focusedonimprovingairquality,noisepollu0onandtrafficflowsviaamoreconnectedinfrastructure.
Siemens|MasdarAlthoughwellbehindschedule,Masdariss0llaimingtobeoneofthemostsustainable,environmentalandsmartci0esontheplanet.Keypartnerships
withSiemensarefocusedonmoreeffec0ve,lowenergysystems.
SmarterCi0zensAbigques0onhoweverconcernshowmuchci0escanbeintelligentin
themselvesvs.enablingci0zenstobemoreinformed,takebeKerdecisionsandsopar0cipatemoreinthedevelopmentandexecu0onofkeystrategies.
PervasiveSmartPhonesAtthecore,1bn‘always-connected’smartphonesandtheassociatedhighspeedwirelessnetworksareenablingafundamentalshifin
howpersonaldataisgenerated,sharedandusedglobally.
Predic0veAnaly0csTheminingand(re)combina0onofmul0pledisparatedatasourcestomodelandanalyzecurrentandhistoricalfactsisalreadyenablingmore
organisa0onstobeKeran0cipateandshareemergentneeds.
Singapore–UrbanMobilityWithitspopula0ondoubling,Singaporeseesmasstransitasacoredriverforamoreeffec0vecity–By2030,80%ofhouseholdswillbewithina10
minutewalkofatrainsta0onand75%ofjourneyswillbeonpublicsystems.
NewYork–EngagedCi0zensAsthepioneerinprovidingopenconnec0vityforall,NewYorkhasbeenahot-spotforthedevelopmentofci0zenbasednetworks:TheBryantParkRestora0onCorpora0onwasoneofthefirstcatalystsforchange.
London–OpenDataLondonhasmoreopenpublicdatasetsthananyotherEuropeancity.Itisfastbecomingaleadingcentreformoreintelligentuseofsharedinforma0onforgreatercollabora0onandbeKerdecisionmaking.
TheValueofDataAsorganisa0onstrytoretainasmuchinforma0onabouttheircustomersaspossible,databecomesacurrencywithavalueandaprice.Ittherefore
requiresamarketplacewhereanythingthatisinforma0onisrepresented.
Christchurch–SensingCityFollowingthe2011earthquake,ChristchurchinNewZealandistakingadvantage
ofanunprecedentedopportunitytorethinkthecityandisintroducingintegratedsensornetworkstoimprovedatasharing.
Floa0ngCi0esThetenmost‘atriskci0es’fromclimatechangegloballyalreadyhaveacombinedpopula0onofover150mandareprojectedtohavegrownbya
further50%by2025–Few,ifany,willbeinsured.
DifferentCi0es–DifferentSolu0onsInseekingnewmodels,organisa0onssuchasShellhaverecognisedthatglobalchallengesrequirelocalsolu0ons-butdifferentcitytypescan
alsoadoptsimilarapproachestoimprovingefficiency.
FUTUREPLACE|IMPLICATIONS
Data-ConsciousCi0zensTheneedforci0zenstounderstandhowdataisusedwillgrow.Educa0onwillbeneededtocombatnewinequali0es,andenablepeopletofullytakepartinsociety:
understandingdatawillbecomepartofcivicself-consciousness.
DeeperCollabora0onPartnershipsshiftobecomemoredynamic,long-term,democra0sed,
mul0-partycollabora0ons.Compe0toralliancesandwiderpublicpar0cipa0ondriveregulatorstocreatenewlegalframeworksforopen,empathe0ccollabora0on.
“Ci0eshavethecapabilityofprovidingsomethingforeverybody,onlybecause,andonlywhen,theyarecreatedbyeverybody.”JaneJacobs-TheDeathandLifeofGreatAmericanCi9es
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