Future of Water in Asia

The Future of Water in Asia

The Future of Water3rd Karachi International Water Conference 2017

Dr. Claudia Sadoff, Director General

International Water Management Institute

Photo: Hamish John Appelby / IWMI

Great global concern over water

What is the future of water in Asia?

25% more people by 2050 in Asia

Domestic water demand to triple & industrial to double by 2050

By 2050, 40% of Asia’s population in severe water scarcity

Growing population – growing scarcity

Asia among fastest growing economies

Among the fastest urbanizing

Over 22 megacities in Asia by 2030

Shifting demands sectorally & spatially

Economic transformation & urbanization

Photo: Neil Palmer / IWMI

Sharing “closed/closing” river basins

Roughly half of the basins in Asia are transboundary

Many ‘closed’ of ‘closing’, meaning that all water is used (includes environmental flows)

Increasing demands, increasing tensions

Sub-optimal management & development

Climate variability & uncertainty

Schew et al. (2013)

Relative change in annual discharge at 2oC vis. today, under RCP8.5

• Wet gets wetter – Dry gets drier

• Per capita water declines in much of Asia

• In South Asia up to -30% per capita

• More extremes, double the drought days

• Variability well outside the historical range

Little aggregate volume change projected – however:

Water-related risks (economic)

Asia has the largest global

concentration of water-related

risks ($)

Securing Water, Sustaining Growth Sadoff et al., 2015

Securing Water, Sustaining Growth Sadoff et al., 2015

Flood risk to peopleAsia’s share of people at risk of flooding is striking

Alternative water futures for Asia?

Intensify sustainable agriculture

Sustainable agricultural intensification potential• Largely in rainfed agriculture

Water smart agriculture for smallholders in AsiaBetter methods to capture, store & conserve water• Small-scale irrigation systems• Participatory groundwater management • ‘Green’ solutions i.e., rainwater harvesting, watershed

management

Water productivity innovations

Resource Recovery and Reuse Business Models

Wastewater recycling – ‘water portfolio’

Remove hazards from the environment

Return resources - water, nutrients and energy – to productive uses

• Groundwater recharge• Industrial & landscape water• Salt-water intrusion barrier wells• Fertilizer pellets from sludge• Energy from biogas

Manage uncertainty & enhance resilience

• Forecast & early warning of drought/flood

• Last mile connectivity – apps, etc.

• Enhanced storage capacity and more coordinated management of storage

• Redundancy in supply

• Index-based weather & crop insurance to reduce economic impacts of shocks

Remotely sensed drought monitoring

Pursue cooperation on shared rivers

Knowledge consolidation

Decision strengthening

Dialogue facilitation

Water policy can promote inclusion

Institutional and policy measures that offer inclusive access to water, with special emphasis on gender equality

Sustainably managed solar irrigation –strengthens ‘agency’ by de-linking from publicly provided water & energy

Technologies to inform water policy & mgmt

From small-scale, ground-based, citizen science like mobile weather stations…

http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/resources/mobile-weather-stations/

http://wateraccounting.org

…to large-scale, remotely sensed water balance

frameworks like Water Accounting + that

estimate flows, stocks, consumption & services


…to web-based information systems, decision support systems, geo-spatial tools, and

platforms for options analysis

Sri Lanka Water Information System

Myanmar WaterInformation System



Allocate

Monitor

Enforce

So, what is the future of water in Asia?

We cannot predictthe future of water in Asia

But we can shape it

Thank you

Environment

Future of Water in Asia