Colin M.J. Novick Executive Director Greater Worcester Land Trust

FUTURE FORESTS Invasive Exotics

+ Climate Change

↓ Climate Adaptation (Climate Mitigation)

= Menu of Options

Arc of Thinking Summer 1995: Street Tree Inventory of Worcester: Catalog of the Invasives! Winter 1999: SIP Program, DCR, Norway Maple Cut at Cascades West Spring 2005: Covert Cooperators, UMass Extension, Harvard Forest “Think 70 + Years Out…” Fall 2007(?ish): US Fish & Wildlife Workshop on Invasives, Amherst “Know When to Hold ‘Em, Know When to Fold ‘Em…” August 2008: Worcester Becomes a Federal Quarantine for the ALB

Full Host Removal 2008-2010 Acer spp. (maple and box elder), Aesculus spp. (horse chestnut and buckeye), Salix spp. (willow), Ulmus spp. (elm), Betula spp. (birch), Albizia spp. (mimosa), Cercidiphyllum spp. (katsura tree), Fraxinus spp. (ash), Koelreuteria spp. (golden rain tree), Platanus spp. (sycamore and London planetree), Sorbus spp. (mountain ash), and Populus spp. (poplar)

USDA APHIS, Asian Longhorned Beetle Cooperative Eradication Program in Clermont County, OH, Environmental Assessment 2012

September 2015: Climate Change and Southern NE Forests, Amherst, MA Climate Adaptation

Maria Janowiak, USFS Climate Change and Southern NE Forests, Amherst, MA

Maria Janowiak is the coordinator for the New England Climate Change Response Framework, serving the states of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. Maria is also a co-coordinator of the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework, with an emphasis on northern Wisconsin and Michigan’s western Upper Peninsula. Maria has been working with land managers on issues related to climate change and adaptation since 2007. I borrow many slides in this from her (Thank You Maria!) But don’t blame her for anything I say.

Human Disturbance + Human Disturbance

Global Trade -> Pangea The Sequel! “Invasives Madness!”

Climate Change

Climate Change Observed to Date: 1 degree Celsius rise (+/- 1.8 degrees F)

3-5” increase in precipitation

Climate Change Anticipated in NE Regional Models: ● 1.5 - 4 degree Celsius rise (2.7 - 8 degrees F) ● Wetter in all seasons but Summer (static or decrease in Summer)

June - August : Streams at “Low Flow” ● Loss of snow cover days (more ground freeze as a result) ● Loss of snowfall by 30-70%

BUT Snow -> Rain = More Rain & Less Snow Events in Warmer Profile = More Ice Events

● Growing Season Lengthens 1 Month (current rates) - 2 Months (high rates) ● Significant decrease in # of Frost Days ● More heavy/extreme weather events ● Number of Days w/ Precipitation over 10 mm. increases

Janowiak, Maria, USFS

Bovenzi ALB Full Host Removal Cut From a representative New England Hardwood Forest Suddenly in One Season to an Oak & Hickory Forest

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… Like: ALB, Ice Storms, Tornados, Flooding...

Climate

Mitigation Vs. Adaptation Human actions to reduce the effects of climate change by reducing sources and enhancing sinks of greenhouse gases. 1) Store (sequester) carbon in live trees

and in ecosystems 2) Avoid emissions of greenhouse

gases to atmosphere 3) Substitute products that produce

lower emissions IPCC 2007, Brown 1999, Maness 2009

Adaptation is the adjustment of human or natural systems in response to climate change.

Adaptation complements mitigation by sustaining healthy, functioning ecosystems

Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al. 2010

Climate Adaptation Actions

Manage for Persistence: Old Universe

Ecosystems will still be recognizable as being the same system (character)

Manage for Change: New Universe

Ecosystems will fundamentally become something different

Adapted From: http://www.business2community.com/leadership/10-myths-change-management-0904871

▪ High likelihood that current conditions will fail, making change is necessary

▪ Changes are already occurring, and can be enhanced

▪ Good opportunity to try something new

When you might emphasize… Persistence (Same/Similar)

▪ High ecological value or unique/rare condition

▪ High social value associated with current condition

▪ Inherent ability to buffer changes

▪ Highly vulnerable, but place represents best chance of success

Change (Future-adapted)

Adaptation Options

Resistance (Short Term) Improve defenses of forest to handle climate stressors Resilience (Medium Term) Accommodate changes to help forest to more or less remain the same in the face of climate change Transition (Long Term) Encourage forest changes, and help direct forest towards an outcome

Invasive: Norway Maple Thought Experiment

MY SITE

01602 = Zone 6A

↓ Zone 7 - 8

Norway Maple

Plus…

Highly adaptive

Minus…

ALB Host Species &

Grows in Zones 1 - 7

Invasive: Black locust Thought Experiment

MY SITE

01602 = Zone 6A

↓ Zone 7 - 8

Black locust

Plus…

Observed doing very well

Grows in Zones 4 - 8

Minus…

Pest Species Susceptible

So… What Comes Next?

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