FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND THEIR

IMPLICATIONS FOR JAMAICA

THE ANSWERS TO THOSE 3 QUESTIONS YOU HAVE

ALWAYS WANTED TO ASK ABOUT CLIMATE & JAMAICA BUT NEVER GOT A CHANCE

TO!

Climate Answers...

YES

NO

MAYBE

Is our climate really changing?

Temperatures are increasing

CSGM (2013)

Both airport stations show a rising trend in mean temperature ~ 0.1 oC/decade.

Consistent with the global rise.

Jones et al (2015 submitted)

YES

NO

MAYBE

Temperatures are increasing

A rising trend in mean temperature ~ 0.1 oC/decade.

Warm days have steadily increased (~22 days since 1960)

Warm nights have steadily increased (~21 days since 1960)

Cold nights and days have decreased (~14 fewer cold nights since 1960)

Cool nights

Warm nights

Warm days

Stephenson et al (2014)

YES

NO

MAYBE

Is our climate really changing?

Temperatures are increasing

Rainfall very variable

13

23

4

Walters (2015)

1 2

3 4

No particular long term trend

Dominated by interannual and decadal variability

Increased short term variability in near term

YES

NO

MAYBE

Is our climate really changing?

Temperatures are increasing

Rainfall very variable

Stephenson et al (2014)

Total rainfall

Intense rainfall

1961-2010 1986-2010

• Trends in the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall events i.e. a noticeable shift in the ‘character’ of regional rainfall.

• Whereas an overall drying or wetter trend is not evident, the number of dry days between rain events is increasing, and when rain occurs it tends to be heavier.

YES

NO

MAYBE

Is our climate really changing?

Temperatures are increasing

Rainfall more variable

1980-1999

2000-2012

More storms and hurricanes

With respect to severe flooding events: the last 20 years were 49% more active (1.55 events/yr) than the last  40 years (0.9 events/yr).  

Burgess et al. (2015)

Is our climate really changing?

YES

NO

MAYBE

Temperatures are increasing

Rainfall more variable

More storms and hurricanes

‘…Caribbean’s rate of sea level rise appears to follow the global mean.’

Sea levels are rising

Torres & Tsimplis (2013)

Is our climate really changing?

YES

NO

MAYBE

Models Scenarios or Storylines of future global development

Future Climate

TemperatureRainfall

ExtremesSea Level Rise

Will things soon return to ‘normal’?

YES

NO

MAYBE

Temperatures will continue to increase

Mea

n Te

mps

War

m D

ays

Cool

Nig

hts

• Between 1 and 3.5oC by end of century.

• Warming exceeds historical variability

• 30-98% of days annually will be considered ‘hot’ by the 2090s

• Only 2% ‘cool’ by the 2080s

McSweeney et al. (2008)

Present Future

By mid 2020s-2030 every year (in the mean) will be warmer than hottest year felt to date. CLIMATE DEPARTURE

Will things soon return to ‘normal’?

YES

NO

MAYBE

Temperatures still increasing

Taylor, Mandal et al. (2015 in preparation)

Variable + Drying trend

W C EMcSweeney et al.

(2008)

wetter

drier

Annual rain decrease by up to 55%. Largest reduction between May and December. A reduction by 7-8% in the length of the rainy season and an increase of 6-8% of the length of the dry season.

Will things soon return to ‘normal’?

YES

NO

MAYBE

Temperatures still increasing

Centella et al. (2015 in preparation)

Variable + Drying trend

Present Future Present Future

Moderate Drought Severe Drought Extreme Drought

Model 1 Model 2YES

NO

MAYBE

Will things soon return to ‘normal’?

Temperatures still increasing

Bender et al. (2010)

Variable + Drying trend

Number of simulated storms remains the same but more intense, with higher rainfall rates and increased maximum winds.

More intense extremes

YES

NO

MAYBE

Will things soon return to ‘normal’?

Temperatures still increasing

Variable + Drying trend

More intense extremes

Jamaica

Present climate 100 year 24 hour precipitation depths will become the 42 and 57 year RP events by 2100 for NMIA and SIA respectively.

Flood risks of deaths and damages are expected to increase 11% and 9% respectively to ~4.4 persons per annum and JMD9.2 billion (USD105.2) in 2010 dollars

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2

Dea

ths a

nd d

amag

es, J

MD

bill

ions

(201

0 va

lue)

Probability of exceedance

Deaths-present climate

Deaths-future climate

Damages-present climate

Damages-future climate

4.0

8.3

4.74.1

5.2

4.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Deaths Damages

Dea

ths (

# pe

rson

s) a

nd d

amag

es E

AD

, in

JMS

billi

ons

Present-observed

Present-validation

Future,2100

Burgess et al. (2015)

YES

NO

MAYBE

Will things soon return to ‘normal’?

Temperatures still increasing

Variable + Drying trend

More intense extremes

Even higher sea levels

Will things soon return to ‘normal’?

YES

NO

MAYBE

Temperatures still increasing

Variable + Drying trend

More intense extremes

Even higher sea levels

Impacts from a 2m SLR on Jamaica1. Land area lost (1% of

Jamaica). 2. People displaced (1%

Jamaica). 3. Damage or loss to

power plants (20% in Jamaica)

4. Tourism resorts damaged or lost (18% Jamaica).

5. Loss or damage of airports (60% Jamaica).

6. Loss of roads (2% Jamaica).

7. Loss or damage to port structures (100% Jamaica)

- UNDP/CARIBSAVE (2010)

Will things soon return to ‘normal’?

YES

NO

MAYBE

Do we have a viable future?

YES

NO

MAYBE

Suitability Maps Ginger

2030s

2050s

CIAT (2011)27% less suitable

Current(AP Photo/Collin Reid)

Expansion of vulnerability

Increased Exposure

Do we have a viable future?

YES

NO

MAYBE

Diminishing capacity to cope

EVENTJamaica

Year Category Impact (% GDP)

Hurricane Michelle 2001 4 0.8May/June Flood Rains 2002 0.7Hurricane Charley 2004 4 0.02Hurricane Ivan 2004 3 8.0 Hurricanes Dennis & Emily

2005 4 1.2

Hurricane Wilma 2005 5 0.7Hurricane Dean 2007 4 3.4Tropical Storm Gustav 2008 2.0Tropical Storm Nicole 2010 1.9Hurricane Sandy 2012 1 0.9

The capacity of the Caribbean to cope with climate impacts is being challenged, not just by the magnitude of the climatic events but also by the increasingly recurrent nature of the threats.

Planning Institute of Jamaica

Expansion of vulnerability

Increased Exposure

Do we have a viable future?

YES

NO

MAYBE

The Caribbean’s annual cost of inaction will be US$22  billion annually (10%) by 2050 and $46 billion (22%) by 2100.

Percentages with respect to the Caribbean economy in 2004.

Country 2025

2050 2075 2100

Anguilla 10.4 20.7 31.1 41.4Antigua & Barbuda 12.2 25.8 41.0 58.4The Bahamas 6.6 13.9 22.2 31.7Barbados 6.9 13.9 20.8 27.7Cuba 6.1 12.5 19.4 26.8Dominica 16.3 34.3 54.4 77.3Dominican Republic 9.7 19.6 29.8 40.3Grenada 21.3 46.2 75.8 111.5Haiti 30.5 61.2 92.1 123.2

Jamaica 13.9

27.9 42.3 56.9

Martinique 1.9 3.8 5.9 8.1Puerto Rico 1.4 2.8 4.4 6.0St. Lucia 12.1 24.3 36.6 49.1Trinidad & Tobago 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0Turks & Caicos 19.0 37.9 56.9 75.9TOTAL Caribbean 5.0% 10.3

%15.9%

21.7%Bueno et al. 2008

YES

NO

MAYBE

Do we have a viable future?

Diminishing capacity to cope

Expansion of vulnerability

Increased Exposure

A National Strategy/Plan for Action NowNational plan guided by sector

plans

Mitigation‘…efforts to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, either by reducing them at source or by creating sinks for the gases.’

In Jamaica’s Climate Policy mitigation efforts centre on three sectors: Energy, Waste, Forestry/Agriculture

Do we have a viable future?

Adaptation‘…recognizes the inevitability of present and upcoming change and advocates pursuing options to facilitate resilience and sustainability in spite of the changed climate’

Education“…providing information and engendering behavioural change’’

In developing a Comprehensive Adaptation Plan* Identify Sensitivities * Determine what changes due to changing climate * Identify Priorities * Identify actions to pursue

Of all sector stakeholders – persons directly and indirectly involved, public at large, etc.

YES

NO

MAYBE

Climate Answers…

YES

NO

MAYBE

Our climate is really changing!

Things may not be ‘normal’ any time soon!

There is hope but we have to act now!

Thank you