Preparing for the perfect storm in Southwestern Amazonia

Brasileia, AcreFeb 2015ASCOM/AcreChanging water and fire cycles in Southwestern AmazoniaFoster BrownWHRC/UFAC/CMDD/Servamb/LBARestoring Water CyclestoReverse Global Warming18 October 2015Tufts UniversityMedford, MA, USA

The Amazon is big 6 million square kilometers - but how big is that?http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/BlueMarble/Images/BlueMarble_2005_SAm_09_4096.pngRio BrancoManausBelemLima

The Amazon is the size of the continental US and diverse.

Perhaps it helps to talk about the various Amazons.

P. Lefevbre, WHRC

One of those: The Southwestern Amazon where Bolivia, Brazil, and Peru meet

the MAP Region,

the size of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Connecticut, combined.

Rio BrancoPeruBoliviaBrazilP. Lefevbre, WHRC

MAP Region map

Acre, BrazilMadre de Dios, PeruPando, BoliviaThe trinational MAP RegionCobijaIapariBrasileiaMadeira RiverBeniPuertoMaldonado

A land of climate extremes in the last ten years 2005-2015Severe droughts and forest fires: 2005 and 2010Flooding: State of Emergency in Rio Branco: 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, the last seven years.Flooding in Madeira River in 2014: reduced truck traffic by 90% during two months. Heat wave in 2015: July-August-September 30+ days with peak temperatures above 35 C (95 F) in Rio Branco, Acre.

2005 and 2010: two one-in-a-century droughts with epicenters in southwestern Amazonia.

2005 2010

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In 2005, the prolonged drought changed the forests from fire barriers to kindling. Results for old-growth rainforests with canopy-damage:1. Acre, Brazil - more than 3,000 square kilometers 2. Pando, Bolivia - more than 1,000 square kilometers3. Madre de Dios, Peru more than 200 square kilometers

Extensive fires in pastures, agricultural lands and agroforestry systems

Noon, Acrelndia, Acre 17Sep05Fire propagating within the forest

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Example of what happened in 2005, 27Sep05

>1 km No accessHow to fight these fires?

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5Oct05Near Xapuri, AcreA forest with its canopy affected by fire

Xapuri, Acre 21Aug05Before fire propagated into the forest

5 kmXapuriCBERS_180_112UFAC/PZ/SETEM/WHRC30out05

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After propagation, Xapuri, Acre 12Oct05

5 kmXapuriCBERS_180_112UFAC/PZ/SETEM/WHRC30out05

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Eastern Acre, Oct 2005: > 300,000 ha of forests impacted by fires. Rio BrancoXapuri

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These fires can last for weeks and produce their own fuel. Triunfo, Plcido de Castro, Acre, 09Sep06.

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Forest ready for a second fire. Acrelndia, Acre. 17Sep05

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Hot coals can last for days/weeks in tree truncks

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Smoke concentrations in late September 2005 >> 25 ug m-3MAP Region Smoke 20Sept05

Lessons from 2005 and past droughts for fire cycles2-3 months without significant rain can allow forest fires to advance into old-growth rainforests. This time is apparently becoming shorter due to higher temperatures.The 1925-26 drought lasted for 7-8 months in Acre. A repeat would be disastrous with the greater number of ignition points set by slash-and-burn agriculturalists and cattle ranchers. We need to change human behavior in relation to fire during prolonged droughts or face wide-spread forest fires in southwestern Amazonia.

Photo: Sergio Vale28mar14BR-364, Rondonia, BrazilAnd then there were floods. The major highway, BR-364, connecting the MAP Region and southern Brazil in 2014

In the last seven years, Rio Branco has declared states of emergency in every one of them for flooding.

But the most dramatic have been in 2012 and 2015.

2015 was a repeat of 2012, but on steroids.

Flood in Iapari, Madre de Dios, Peru, 16 Feb 2012. The headwaters of the Acre River.

Iapari, 17:25, 16feb12Via Mercedes Perales.

Mayors office , Iapari, 18feb12

Cobija, Pando, Bolivia fev12

Foto A. Lima

Rio Branco, fev12.

Foto: Sergio Vale

Impact in Brasileia, Acre. 2012Foto: Carlos Portela

A Gazeta, 28fev12.Acre faces its worst natural disaster in its history, declares [Senator] Jorge Viana. That was in 2012, it got worse in 2015. Paradigm shift from building to rebuilding/recovery.

This the second floor of a house in Brasileia, Acre. 24feb15

Marcus Alexandre, Mayor of Rio Branco on 28 Mar13: We havent recovered from last years flooding and now with have another. = loss of Resilience

After the flood of 2015 it will take 5 years to recover. (but it floods every year.)

Then in 2014, the flooding of the Madeira River isolated the MAP Region from southern Brazil for two months.

Where did the wter come from? Puerto Maldonado, Peru upstream Madre de Dios River Worst flooding in 50 years. 6fev14.

Rains in the Beni, Bolivia. Loss of 100+ thousand head of cattle.http://www.eldeber.com.bo/EL-DEBER-Rural/edr.php?id=140224002108

http://www.erbol.com.bo/noticia/economia/06032014/290_mil_cabezas_de_ganado_mueren_por_lluvias_e_inundaciones_en_el_beniBeni, Bolivia

http://maisro.com.br/por-questoes-politicas-midia-brasileira-ignora-tragedia-climatica-na-bolivia/

Beni, Bolivia This water drained into the Madeira River

Highway Br-364 in late march 2014Carretera BR-364 Rondoniawww.jorgeviana.com.br 19mar14

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Reduction of transportation up to 90%

Sergio Vale, ASCOM-AC, mar14

Things are serious when it is necessary to ration beans.Supermercado Mesquita, Conj. Tucum, RB. 13Apr14.

We have a lot of problems in the MAP Region related to climate already and more on the way.

Proliferating dams in SW Amazonia:

150 planned dams of >2 MW over next 20 years.

Finer, Matt, and Clinton N. Jenkins. Proliferation of Hydroelectric Dams in the Andean Amazon and Implications for Andes-Amazon Connectivity. PLOS ONE 7, no. 4 (April 18, 2012). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0035126.Rio Branco

Nature 502, no. 7470 (October 10, 2013): 183187.

Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (14 years s.d.) under a business-as-usual scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries,http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/mora/PublicationsCopyRighted/Data.html

Rio Branco: departure date: 2019-2024or 5 to 10 years.

The MAP Region has departure dates for a new climate in a few years.

Acre and the MAP Region will become a Amazonian epicenter for climate change and impactsAnother metaphor:

Acre as the canary in the Amazonian climate mine.

http://www.academia.dk/Blog/a-canary-in-a-coal-mine-in-the-19th-century-and/

Abstract submitted to AGU Session on Extreme events in Amazonia: how to adapt and mitigate December 205, San Francisco, CA, USAThe Challenges from Extreme Climate Events for Sustainable Development in Amazonia: the Acre State ExperienceDra. Maria de Nazareth Arajo Lambert, Vice-Governor, State of Acre For the last 17 years, successive state administrations have been implementing a socio-environmental model of development that strives to link sustainable economic production with environmental conservation, particularly for small communities. In this context, extreme climate events have interfered significantly with this model, increasing the risks of failure.

A little side track into philosophy and framing.

Problemology and SolutionologyMy training and its underlying paradigms are in problemology defining the problem.It is an essential step, but an incomplete one. Society wants solutions.Nevertheless, how you define problems affects how you look for solutions.

https://www.google.com/search?q=paradigm&oq=pa&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j69i60j69i61j69i60j69i57.9386j0j4&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8synonyms:model,()prototype, archetype"why should your sets of values be the paradigm for the rest of us?"

paradigmperdm/noun1.technicala typical example or pattern of something; a model.

http://consumercentric.biz/wordpress/?p=106Paradigms are part of our world view. They are inventions of the human mind. What paradigms do que need to change? What are enduring?Note that the world didnt change, only the chicks perception of it.

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Central to this Conference: restoration of small water cycles and climate a paradigm shift.

A phrase attributed to G.E. Hutchinson by Tom Lovejoy: What is right about this paper? And what applies to the Amazon?

Circulation of water over the Amazon.

Arraut et al. 2011. Aerial Rivers and Lakes: looking at large scale moisture transport, its relation to Amazonia and to Subtropical Rainfall in South America. Journal of Climate.Cobija

Biotic Pump Concept Submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics in 2010, published in 2013.

But not without controversy a rare editor comment published with the paper.

see http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/24015/2010/acpd-10-24015-2010-discussion.htmlEditor Comment. The authors have presented an entirely new view of what may be driving dynamics in the atmosphere. This new theory has been subject to considerable criticism (3) The handling editor (and the executive committee) concluded to allow final publication of the manuscript in ACP, in order to facilitate further development of the presented arguments, which may lead to disproof or validation by the scientific community.

14 March 2005 GOES ImageWater vapor and clouds coming from the oceanan Aerial RiverInter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)Return of water in riverswww.cptec.inpe.br54

Transport of water vapor to southern S.A.

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Dry season: pasture lower evapotranspiration than the forests05out05Leste do Acre

Water vapor from forestWater vapor from pasture55

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Regional climate change where rains are reduced by deforestation. Maintain forests is to maintain evapotranspiration, an ecosystem service. Mainstream science, but not incorporated in Brazilian public policy.

SCIENCE 20082050tendencial2050Leis

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Is this already occurring?Increased flow from the Araguaia River 25% in two decades 80/89 a 90/99 - 2/3 due to deforestation (note paradigm change) 2011 Biogeochemistry DOI 10.1007/s10533-011-9582-2

A paradigm shift for Amazonia loss of forest = loss of rainfall = loss of agricultural productivity.

Other things are also changing.

Current state of knowledge: dont deforest or you lose water.

But message is seeping in slowly to policy makers and the public.

Biotic pump concept will take even more time.

Recently published estimates of deforested area in Amazonia. http://raisg.socioambiental.org/deforestacion-en-la-amazonia-1970-2013About 6 million square kilometers of forest cover.Loss from 1970 to 2013: 13% of the forest, but at an accelerating rate from 2000. In other words, most of the Amazon forest is still there a focus on preservation/conservationBut what about restoration, is there a place in the Amazon?

A place for restoration? Yes!13 percent of 6 million square kilometers is 780,000 km2, about the combined size of California and Montana. And the area is growing every year.

An example:Eastern Acre, Brazil.

http://raisg.socioambiental.org/system/files/DEFORESTACION_AMAZONIA_capa.jpgACRERioBranco

Eastern Acre, Brazil, deforested area is the size of Connecticut.

http://raisg.socioambiental.org/system/files/DEFORESTACION_AMAZONIA_capa.jpgRioBranco

Everything Should Be Made as Simple as Possible, But Not Simpler. Attributed to Albert Einstein, but apparently simplified*.

A synonym for Holistic is complex.For climate change there is no

*Probably derived from: It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience. (1933, Herbert Spencer Lecture. http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/05/13/einstein-simple/

71% of the Earth, the ocean, is already hydrated. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/research-of-andrew-wittenberg

PacificOcean