London Calling

Species Diversification and Choice

John WeirAdviser for Woodland creation and resilience

John.weir@forestry.gsi.gov.ukwww.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeengland

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF2

Policy and strategy, etc, etc, etc

Climate change action plan

A strategy for the Forestry Commission estate in England

1st August 2011

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF3

An age of innocence

• Sycamore, Scots pine brought to England and Beech was moved north. 8,500 years ago an island

• Romans brought us sweet chestnut from Turkey and rabbits and fallow deer for food.

• Napoleonic wars brought a huge new Oak resource from Europe

• The Victorian plant hunters brought us a wealth of trees from around the world, and the grey squirrel

• The Forestry Commission used the trees available

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF4

The Age of Stupid

•

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF5

Our forests todayConifer Species Today

Scots Pine

Corsican Pine

Sitka Spruce

Douglas Fir

Larch (EL, HL, JL)

Other Conifer

Oak26%

Beech 10%

Sycamore8%

Ash16%

Birch12%

Poplar2%

Sweet chestnut2%

Elm0%

Other Broadleaves11%

Mixed Broadleaves13%

Data SourcWoodland -d t 1998

• 5 conifer species account for 88% of the total

• 5 broadleaved species account for over 72% of the total

• 10 tree species account for 80% of our woodland!!!!

Broadleaved species today

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF6

Pests and diseases

Chalara on Ash!!!

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF7

What are we doing??

Telegraph.co.uk-7 Mar 2013The deer population has exploded since the 1960s

Deer cull essential to protect woodlands: studyAFP-6 Mar 2013LONDON —

Half of the country's deer population needs to be culled to preserve woodlands and birdlife, said a scientific study published on ...

cull70,000 road kills per year

AlexRoe

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF8

Warnings of things to come

• 1970s Dutch Elm disease

• 1976 The big drought

• 1987 10 years felling programme lost overnight

1975 John Weir stared work with the Forestry Commission (37 years)

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF9

Climate Change

Source: UK Meteorological Office

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF10

1961-90

Forest of Dean Today

Coleford

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF11

Forest of Dean by 2050

2050s High

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF12

Forest of Dean 2080

2080s High

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF13

Risk to woodlands on the Public Forest Estate

By the 2080s, a risk of 65% of the PFE being classed as ‘unsuitable’ in the absence of

adaptation – or 35% decline in productivity

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF14

feet per day

The rate of change……..

Our trees are having a pretty tough time of it and it can only get more challenging.

To do nothing is to leave no options for future generations, so what do we know to allow us to

take actions?

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF15

Climate Change Strategy England

• Adopt the principle of anticipatory adaptation. This offers the highest potential gains for forest resilience, and the benefits they provide.

• Take an approach that is ‘not risk averse’.

• Global emissions are currently tracking close to some of the more extreme emissions scenarios that have been published, so it is prudent to consider the 2050 high scenario when planning for the future.

• Diversification is the theme!!!!

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF16

What does the past tell us?

DEAN

between wars WW2

1946 1949 1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's

Grand Total

Species Douglas fir DF 25 11 3 87 386 152 81 36 46 846European larch EL 81 33 36 69 82 18 9 7 7 390European silver fir ESF 2 1 3Grand fir GF 21 27 4 52Japanese red cedar JCR 1 1Lawsons cypress LC 4 4 2 21 26 58Leyland cypress LEC 1 1 1 3Maritime pine MAP Oriental spruce MCP 3 2 5Mountain pine MOP Noble fir NF 2 6 1 9Serbian spruce OMS 5 1 6Ponderosa pine PDP 1 1Raoul RAN 4 5 1 10Monteray pine RAP Red alder RAR Western red cedar RC 5 1 24 125 54 2 1 218Red Oak ROK 1 12 1 1 15Roble RON 1 3 4Coast redwood RSQ 5 3 3 1 12Sweet chestnut SC 44 10 6 40 41 45 32 45 48 340Weymouth pine WEP 1 2 4Western hemlock WH 3 1 2 41 88 2 1 138Wellingtonia WSQ 1 1 3 XB 8 8 6 26 11 4 6 3 1 107 XC 2 2 22 XF 1 1 2

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF17

The ‘READ’ report species

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF18

SpruceSerbian spruce: Picea ormorika Oriental spruce: Picea orientalis

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF19

After Larch: a deciduous conifer?

Dawn redwood: Metasequoia glyptostroboides

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF20

RedwoodsCoast redwood: Sequoia sempervirens Wellingtonia: Sequoiadendron

giganteum

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF21

Crytomeria: Japanese cedarJapanese cedar: Cryptomeria japonica Japanese cedar: Cryptomeria japonica

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF22

CedarsAtlas cedar: Cerdus atlanticaCedar of lebanon: Cedrus libaniHimalayan cedar: Cedrus diodara

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF23

Western red Cedar: Thuja plicata Leyland cyprus: Cupressus x leylandii

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF24

Pines post DothistromaMacedonian pine: Pinus peuce Weymouth pine: Pinus strobus

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF25

European Fir’sEuropean silver fir: Abies alba Greek fir: Abies cephalonica

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF26

Old favourites!Western hemlock: Tsuga heterophylla Douglas-fir: Pseudotsuga menziesii

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF27

Lesser-used nativesSmall-leafed lime: Tilia cordata Hornbeam: Carpinus betula

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF28

Near Native – but whenDowny birch: Quercus pubescens Narrow-leafed ash: Fraxinus angustifolia

Oriental beech: Fagus orientalis Common walnut: Juglans regia

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF29

A few more...Red alder: Alnus rubra Italian alder: Alnus viridis

Robinia: Robinia pseudoacacia Black Walnut: Juglans nigra

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF30

A few more... Eucalypts: E. gunii; nitens; glaucescens; dalrympleana

Tulip tree/yellow poplar: Liriodendron tulipifera

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF31

2 or 3 Degrees of Latitude 5?

35

02

3 degree

5 degree

For the south of the country…

Very Important for our native broadleaf species

Best to use improved stock whenever possible (FTT). The French are foresters

Grown here?

Think biosecurity!

Think forest hygiene!

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF32

Native distributions

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF33

Native distributionsDouglas fir

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF34

Tree Breeding, native and exotic

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF35

Expert advice and support

• We need to create an urgency for foresters to act

• We must get the right tree, in the right place for the right reason.

• We need to remove the excuses to not take action

• We are trying to lead by example on our own land

• We are making our knowledge available to all

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF36

Guidance

•FCE’s climate change resourcewww.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeenglandwww.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeengland

•Forest researchwww.forestry.gov.uk/fr/climatechangewww.forestry.gov.uk/fr/climatechange

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF37

Providing the evidence

Decision Support Advice, reducing the risk

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF38

Guidance on adapting species choice: Ecological Site Classification (ESC)

ESC is a knowledge-based model; productivity distribution data are used to inform decisions;

ESC was developed to support the UK forestry industry in commercial species selection;

Rising CO2 levels are not accounted for.

Detailed species information, including provenance guidance, provided

www.eforestry.gov.uk/forestdss

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF39

Data Input

Grid reference gives elevation aspect etc. Good soils or vegetation data gives growing medium and rooting depth etc. Uses meterological data to 100m. Climate Change data on 5km squares so not so accurate. Rubbish in, rubbish out.

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF40

Suitability Today

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF41

Climate Change

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF42

Native Woodland Type

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF43

Simple messages • Woodland design and contingency planning

• understand climate change projections• create fire, windstorm and flood contingency plans• monitor and review

• Bring existing woodlands into management• manage deer, squirrels and invasive species• thin to encourage regeneration• enrichment planting to diversify species

• Adapt choice of planting material• diversity of species – including ‘minor species’• genetic diversity and more southerly origins• species capable of withstanding hotter, drier climate

• Transform to ‘continuous cover forestry’• Landscape approaches

• link woodlands in the landscape• enlarge existing woodlands

www.forestry.gov.uk/climatechangeengland

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF44

Some things we can do??

Use the knowledge to make ‘anticipatory decisions’,

‘do not be risk averse’,

accept ‘2050 high scenario’ is very probable and that we have an urgency as today is 2013, well into this uncertain future

07/04/2014 CIF/ICF45

• Thank you