Fighting for the FutureFighting for the FutureToward a Sustainable SocietyToward a Sustainable Society

Craig Collins, Ph.D. Craig Collins, Ph.D. ©©

Eco-Social Co-evolutionEco-Social Co-evolution Humans & nature exist in Humans & nature exist in

a perpetual evolutionary a perpetual evolutionary dance.dance.

This co-evolutionary This co-evolutionary dance is a mutually dance is a mutually transforming energy transforming energy exchange between social exchange between social system & ecosystemsystem & ecosystem

It has had profound It has had profound unintended consequences:unintended consequences: Peak oilPeak oil Runaway climate change. Runaway climate change. Anti-biotic resistance from Anti-biotic resistance from

industrial meat production.industrial meat production. Massive Species ExtinctionMassive Species Extinction

Co-Evolution & Energy EpochsCo-Evolution & Energy EpochsGrasping this co-evolutionary Grasping this co-evolutionary

process sheds light on:process sheds light on: Why industrial society became Why industrial society became

dominant over the last 2 centuries.dominant over the last 2 centuries. What its limits are.What its limits are. How society might adopt an How society might adopt an

ecologically sustainable alternative.ecologically sustainable alternative.

Also…Also…

it allows us to see that:it allows us to see that:

We stand on the threshold of the third great historical transformation of human society.

All Social Systems Need EnergyAll Social Systems Need Energy

History’s major modes of History’s major modes of production are production are distinguished by the distinguished by the energy energy basebase, or niche, they exploit., or niche, they exploit.

The ENERGY BASE is The ENERGY BASE is the particular set of the particular set of environmental energy environmental energy sources a society’s sources a society’s technology is designed to technology is designed to convert into food & fuel.convert into food & fuel.

History’s 3 Major Modes of Survival Have History’s 3 Major Modes of Survival Have Metabolized Their Own Unique Energy NicheMetabolized Their Own Unique Energy Niche

Hunting/GatheringHunting/Gathering The native plants & The native plants &

animals of wild ecosystemsanimals of wild ecosystems Agricultural/PastoralAgricultural/Pastoral

The crops & livestock of The crops & livestock of domesticateddomesticated ecosystems ecosystems

Wind, waterWind, water Wild plants (especially forests) & Wild plants (especially forests) &

animals (especially marine life)animals (especially marine life)

Mechanized/IndustrialMechanized/Industrial Fossil Fuels (85%)Fossil Fuels (85%) UraniumUranium Domesticated & wild plants & Domesticated & wild plants &

animals (wind & water)animals (wind & water)

Eco-social Evolution’s Central InsightsEco-social Evolution’s Central Insights#1#1 Modes of survival adapt to, & Modes of survival adapt to, &

convert, a particular energy base.convert, a particular energy base.#2#2 They reach their productive limit They reach their productive limit

when their energy base no longer when their energy base no longer sustains them.sustains them.

The most potent driving force The most potent driving force underlying social evolution is the underlying social evolution is the tension between a society’s mode tension between a society’s mode of survival & its energy base.of survival & its energy base. This contradiction has determined This contradiction has determined

why, when, & where human history why, when, & where human history moved from foraging to farming, & moved from foraging to farming, & then from agricultural to industrial then from agricultural to industrial civilization.civilization.

It will determine when industrial It will determine when industrial society will exhaust itself.society will exhaust itself.

Technology Conforms To & Converts Energy BaseTechnology Conforms To & Converts Energy Base

ForagersForagers metabolize the energy metabolize the energy sources ofsources of naturalnatural ecosystems ecosystems by designing fishing nets, by designing fishing nets, spears, scrapers/knives, traps, spears, scrapers/knives, traps, flints, fire drills, collecting flints, fire drills, collecting baskets, etc. to hunting & gather baskets, etc. to hunting & gather the plants & animals of their the plants & animals of their native habitats.native habitats.

FarmersFarmers convert the energy convert the energy stores of stores of domesticated domesticated ecosystemsecosystems by inventing plows, by inventing plows, fences, sickles, yokes, dams & fences, sickles, yokes, dams & canals, wind & water mills, canals, wind & water mills, granaries, looms, plant & animal granaries, looms, plant & animal breeding, etc. to control soil breeding, etc. to control soil nutrients & the life cycles of nutrients & the life cycles of select crops & livestock. select crops & livestock.

Social Relations Adapt to Social Relations Adapt to Technology & Energy NicheTechnology & Energy Niche

Small, mobile cultures with minimal Small, mobile cultures with minimal diversification & no ruling elite are well diversification & no ruling elite are well adapted to collecting the limited useable adapted to collecting the limited useable energy stores of wild ecosystems.energy stores of wild ecosystems.

The larger useable energy stores of The larger useable energy stores of domesticated agrarian ecosystems both domesticated agrarian ecosystems both supported & required settled peasant supported & required settled peasant villages & city-states with greater villages & city-states with greater diversification of labor. Ruling classes diversification of labor. Ruling classes of emperors & priest-kings with standing of emperors & priest-kings with standing armies defended, expanded, managed & armies defended, expanded, managed & dominated these farming societies by dominated these farming societies by commanding the flow of “surplus” commanding the flow of “surplus” energy (grains, animals, water storage & energy (grains, animals, water storage & delivery). delivery).

Cosmology Reflects & Reinforces Cosmology Reflects & Reinforces Economic/Energy BaseEconomic/Energy Base

Cultural beliefs, Cultural beliefs, values, & norms of values, & norms of behavior reflect behavior reflect society’s mode of society’s mode of survival--peoples’ survival--peoples’ relationship with relationship with nature & their socio-nature & their socio-economic system.economic system.

They also reinforce They also reinforce the behaviors the behaviors necessary to necessary to reproduce the system.reproduce the system.

Hunter-Gatherers Were AnimistsHunter-Gatherers Were Animists Spiritual beliefs tended to Spiritual beliefs tended to

integrate humans with all integrate humans with all life & natural forces. They life & natural forces. They saw underlying spiritual saw underlying spiritual forces at work everywhere. forces at work everywhere. They viewed themselves as They viewed themselves as dependent on, & part of, a dependent on, & part of, a living environment living environment animated by multiple, animated by multiple, omnipresent spiritual omnipresent spiritual energies.energies.

Earth/Gaia/Pachamama was Earth/Gaia/Pachamama was the mother of everything.the mother of everything.

Agrarian Societies:Agrarian Societies:Deities with a Human FaceDeities with a Human Face

Agricultural elites relied mainly Agricultural elites relied mainly upon institutionalized religions upon institutionalized religions to minimize & justify the need to minimize & justify the need for coercion, sanctify their for coercion, sanctify their authority & reinforce the social authority & reinforce the social behaviors the masses must behaviors the masses must adopt to sustain this way of adopt to sustain this way of life--sacrifice, obedience, life--sacrifice, obedience, conformity & cooperation.conformity & cooperation.

Priest-kings claimed they were Priest-kings claimed they were closely related to Gods & closely related to Gods & Goddesses who controlled the Goddesses who controlled the forces of the natural world forces of the natural world (fertility, sun, rain, etc.) & (fertility, sun, rain, etc.) & access to the afterlife.access to the afterlife.

Hunting & GatheringHunting & GatheringOver 90% of Human HistoryOver 90% of Human History

Climate change,Climate change, demographic pressuredemographic pressure,, geographical expansion geographical expansion & technological & technological improvements slowly improvements slowly depleted their energy depleted their energy base in some locations.base in some locations. But many foraging But many foraging

cultures developed cultures developed sustainable relationships sustainable relationships with their habitats that with their habitats that endured for thousands endured for thousands of years.of years.

The Transition to AgricultureThe Transition to Agriculture When climate changes & When climate changes &

demographic pressure depleted demographic pressure depleted wild sources of plants & wild sources of plants & animals, many foraging animals, many foraging cultures were compelled to cultures were compelled to adopt agriculture.adopt agriculture. But first, all efforts to improve But first, all efforts to improve

the technologies of hunting & the technologies of hunting & gathering were exhausted.gathering were exhausted.

This great leap happened first This great leap happened first where conditions were most where conditions were most desperate AND rich soil & desperate AND rich soil & plentiful water made agriculture plentiful water made agriculture a relatively easy alternative.a relatively easy alternative.

Agriculture: Necessity + OpportunityAgriculture: Necessity + OpportunityAgriculture appeared first Agriculture appeared first

where:where: Population was Population was

concentrated in lush river concentrated in lush river valleys surrounded by valleys surrounded by harsh arid regions.harsh arid regions.

Habitats became Habitats became depleted of wild stores of depleted of wild stores of plants & animals.plants & animals.

Growing grains on Growing grains on fertile, easily irrigated fertile, easily irrigated river floodplains river floodplains provided a convenient provided a convenient alternative to foraging.alternative to foraging.

The Rise & Fall ofThe Rise & Fall ofAgricultural CivilizationsAgricultural Civilizations

Energy base depletion was accelerated by:Energy base depletion was accelerated by: Heightened demographic pressure: Heightened demographic pressure:

To increase labor supply & agricultural output To increase labor supply & agricultural output Intensified surplus extraction for:Intensified surplus extraction for:

Elite power & wealth (class exploitation)Elite power & wealth (class exploitation) Warfare over land, labor & vital resourcesWarfare over land, labor & vital resources

Conquest & territorial expansion provides a Conquest & territorial expansion provides a temporary “solution” to energy depletion. temporary “solution” to energy depletion. War elevates male status as warriors.War elevates male status as warriors. Institutionalizes patriarchal control over women, Institutionalizes patriarchal control over women,

children & the means of reproduction.children & the means of reproduction.

Competitive exclusion between rival Competitive exclusion between rival empires undermines long term empires undermines long term

environmental balance.environmental balance.

The Fast Lane To Failure?The Fast Lane To Failure? Despite major technological Despite major technological

improvements in society’s improvements in society’s ability to extract energy ability to extract energy from nature, each new mode from nature, each new mode of production has fallen into of production has fallen into crisis quicker than the last.crisis quicker than the last.

Each new mode added new Each new mode added new social dynamics that social dynamics that accelerated the rate of accelerated the rate of resource exploitation & the resource exploitation & the depletion of its energy base.depletion of its energy base.

Overshoot & CollapseOvershoot & Collapse A society whose energy A society whose energy

base can no longer base can no longer support it is subject to support it is subject to crisis, decay, external crisis, decay, external threats & internal threats & internal collapse.collapse.

Unless it gains access to Unless it gains access to new sources of energy, its new sources of energy, its size & complexity will size & complexity will decrease until it can be decrease until it can be sustained by the sustained by the remaining energy remaining energy available to it.available to it.

Energy Base & Energy Base & RevolutionaryRevolutionary Change Change No society adopts a new energy No society adopts a new energy

base & mode of survival until base & mode of survival until its old energy base no longer its old energy base no longer sustains it.sustains it.

Necessity has been the mother Necessity has been the mother of invention for each great of invention for each great revolutionary leap from one revolutionary leap from one mode of production to another.mode of production to another.

Fighting for the Future --Part 2Fighting for the Future --Part 2

The Rise & Fall ofThe Rise & Fall ofIndustrial CivilizationIndustrial Civilization

The Industrial TransformationThe Industrial Transformation The industrial revolution came only The industrial revolution came only

after demographic pressure, soil after demographic pressure, soil exhaustion, timber scarcity, famine exhaustion, timber scarcity, famine & wars left the energy base of & wars left the energy base of European agriculture depleted.European agriculture depleted.

Conquest & mercantile colonial Conquest & mercantile colonial expansion was only a temporary expansion was only a temporary “solution.”“solution.”

Europe did not grow its way out of its Europe did not grow its way out of its intensifying crisis until it tapped a new intensifying crisis until it tapped a new energy base--coal.energy base--coal.

Production & consumption per capita took-off Production & consumption per capita took-off for the 1st time for the 1st time only after coal power was only after coal power was adopted.adopted.

Fossil fuels became the energy base Fossil fuels became the energy base for the 2nd great reorganization of for the 2nd great reorganization of humanity’s relationship with nature.humanity’s relationship with nature.

Why England?Why England? England was the most wood England was the most wood scarce, energy desperate scarce, energy desperate nation in Europe.nation in Europe.

But it had vast, accessible coal But it had vast, accessible coal deposits.deposits.

The coal-powered steam The coal-powered steam engine solved major energy engine solved major energy bottlenecks:bottlenecks: Coal replaced water power, Coal replaced water power,

wood & whale oil as fuel for wood & whale oil as fuel for industry.industry.

Liberating the FACTORY Liberating the FACTORY SYSTEMSYSTEM

MiningMining Ventilation & water incursionVentilation & water incursion

TransportationTransportation Railroad/steamship Railroad/steamship

Food/clothing supplyFood/clothing supply Food crops replace horse & sheep Food crops replace horse & sheep

fodder. (Wheat/cotton) fodder. (Wheat/cotton)

Coal & Class ConflictCoal & Class Conflict Coal-powered industrialism allowed Coal-powered industrialism allowed

Europe to evade the cataclysmic Europe to evade the cataclysmic predictions of both Marx & Malthus.predictions of both Marx & Malthus. European society did not experience European society did not experience

demographic disaster or proletarian demographic disaster or proletarian revolution.revolution.

Coal-powered industrialization out-Coal-powered industrialization out-ran demographic pressures, raised ran demographic pressures, raised living standards & tempered class living standards & tempered class conflict in the European/American conflict in the European/American core of the global capitalist system.core of the global capitalist system.

Railroads, steamships, factories & Railroads, steamships, factories & industrial weaponry allowed Europe industrial weaponry allowed Europe & the US to penetrate & exploit the & the US to penetrate & exploit the labor & wealth of the Americas, Asia labor & wealth of the Americas, Asia & Africa as never before.& Africa as never before.

ThomasThomasMalthusMalthus

KarlKarlMarxMarx

— — Fossil Fuels —Fossil Fuels —Not Just Another ResourceNot Just Another Resource

Without coal-powered Without coal-powered machines/factories the machines/factories the industrial revolution industrial revolution would not have been would not have been possible.possible.

Fossil fuels have been the Fossil fuels have been the predominant source of predominant source of energy ever since…85%.energy ever since…85%.

The entire global chain of The entire global chain of extraction, production & extraction, production & consumption is fueled by consumption is fueled by coal, oil & natural gas. coal, oil & natural gas.

Fossil Fuels--The Energy Base of Fossil Fuels--The Energy Base of Industrial SocietyIndustrial Society

With plenty of petroleum, With plenty of petroleum, industrial growth appeared industrial growth appeared unstoppable.unstoppable.

It reshaped all previous It reshaped all previous forms of production.forms of production. Agriculture & foraging are Agriculture & foraging are

now done on an industrial now done on an industrial scale.scale.

But without this rich, highly But without this rich, highly concentrated source of concentrated source of energy, industrialism would energy, industrialism would literally run out of gas.literally run out of gas.

Industrial AgricultureIndustrial AgricultureWe’re Eating OilWe’re Eating Oil

It takes 10 calories of It takes 10 calories of fossil fuels to produce fossil fuels to produce 1 calorie of food.1 calorie of food.

Petroleum is vital for:Petroleum is vital for: IrrigationIrrigation FertilizerFertilizer PesticidesPesticides Mechanized Planting & Mechanized Planting &

HarvestingHarvesting ProcessingProcessing TransportationTransportation RefrigerationRefrigeration PackagingPackaging Cooking & PreparationCooking & Preparation

Farming on Fossil FuelsFarming on Fossil Fuels

The So-Called “Green Revolution”The So-Called “Green Revolution”Crops Bred To Grow on a Life-Support System of Fossil FuelsCrops Bred To Grow on a Life-Support System of Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels Feed the WorldFossil Fuels Feed the World

Petroleum, Labor & ProductivityPetroleum, Labor & Productivity Those who hold that labor is the Those who hold that labor is the

only source of wealth are only source of wealth are mistaken.mistaken.

Nature’s store of fossil fuels are Nature’s store of fossil fuels are a source of tremendous wealth a source of tremendous wealth because because they produce far more they produce far more useful energy than the human useful energy than the human energy necessary for their energy necessary for their extractionextraction..

One gallon of gasoline produces One gallon of gasoline produces the equivalent work of a person the equivalent work of a person laboring 8 hours day, 5 days a laboring 8 hours day, 5 days a week, for 3 weeks.week, for 3 weeks.

One barrel of oil contains the One barrel of oil contains the work equivalent of 12 people work equivalent of 12 people laboring a full year!laboring a full year!

““Labor is ... not the only source of material Labor is ... not the only source of material

wealth, ie., of the use-values it produces. wealth, ie., of the use-values it produces.

As William Petty says, labor is the father As William Petty says, labor is the father

of material wealth, the Earth is its of material wealth, the Earth is its

mother.” mother.” -Marx-Marx

Energy & Labor ExploitationEnergy & Labor Exploitation Petroleum powered machines are the Petroleum powered machines are the

essential for:essential for: Replacing wage labor (automation).Replacing wage labor (automation). Increasing output per labor/hour.Increasing output per labor/hour. Allowing production to continue year-Allowing production to continue year-

round, day & night. round, day & night. Keeping the working class weak & wages Keeping the working class weak & wages

low by:low by: Mechanizing agriculture--driving people Mechanizing agriculture--driving people

off the land (surplus labor).off the land (surplus labor). Reducing the cost of food.Reducing the cost of food. De-skilling work.De-skilling work. Accessing distant labor pools by reducing Accessing distant labor pools by reducing

transport costs.transport costs.

All of this works only if fossil energy All of this works only if fossil energy remains abundant & cheap.remains abundant & cheap.

““Machinery becomes the most powerful weapon in the war of capital against the working class” -EngelsMachinery becomes the most powerful weapon in the war of capital against the working class” -Engels

Industrialism & “Free” LaborIndustrialism & “Free” LaborCommodified (wage) labor is well Commodified (wage) labor is well

suited to rapidly changing, high-suited to rapidly changing, high-energy production because it is:energy production because it is:

Disposable & mobile.Disposable & mobile. Cheap to reproduce.Cheap to reproduce. Desperate & competitive.Desperate & competitive.

Industrialism Without Capitalism?Industrialism Without Capitalism? Industrial systems can be state managed Industrial systems can be state managed

& may operate without commodifying & may operate without commodifying labor or means of production.labor or means of production.

This has been a common strategy of This has been a common strategy of revolutionary nationalist regimes seeking revolutionary nationalist regimes seeking to industrialize while protecting their to industrialize while protecting their economies from foreign capitalist economies from foreign capitalist penetration & subordination.penetration & subordination. The Russian & Chinese revolutions The Russian & Chinese revolutions

were prime examples of this Leninist were prime examples of this Leninist model of nationalist state-managed model of nationalist state-managed industrialization.industrialization.

But state planned industrialism is not But state planned industrialism is not socialism & it operates at a distinct socialism & it operates at a distinct disadvantage compared to expansionist, disadvantage compared to expansionist, globalized capitalist industrialism.globalized capitalist industrialism.

*Other forms: Maoism, Juché, etc.

Petro-Powered Industry Favors Globalized, Petro-Powered Industry Favors Globalized, Profit-Driven Economic SystemsProfit-Driven Economic Systems

Profit-drivenProfit-driven production for a production for a worldworld market market ::

Demands rapid, flexible Demands rapid, flexible mechanization to maximize mechanization to maximize labor productivity & labor productivity & exploitation.exploitation.

Encourages Encourages globalizedglobalized chains of production to move chains of production to move capital wherever resources & capital wherever resources & labor are cheapest.labor are cheapest.

Fosters a Fosters a globalizedglobalized market market to consume industrial output to consume industrial output & maintain profits.& maintain profits.

These factors disadvantage state-These factors disadvantage state-controlled, nationally bound, industrial controlled, nationally bound, industrial

economies that don’t exploit labor & economies that don’t exploit labor & resources on a global scale.resources on a global scale.

Economic Growth & Fossil FuelsEconomic Growth & Fossil FuelsCapitalism’s exponential growth Capitalism’s exponential growth metabolism relies on carboniferous energymetabolism relies on carboniferous energy

Malignant Metabolic AcceleratorsMalignant Metabolic AcceleratorsMotivators of exponential growth:Motivators of exponential growth:• • Maximizing the rate of return on Maximizing the rate of return on

invested capital. (accumulation & invested capital. (accumulation & profit)profit)

• • Debt Debt ++ interest based monetary system. interest based monetary system.• • Market competition & hyper-Market competition & hyper-

consumption.consumption.• • International rivalry for energy & other International rivalry for energy & other

vital resources. vital resources. These accelerators have depleted These accelerators have depleted

industrialism’s hydrocarbon energy industrialism’s hydrocarbon energy base within a few centuriesbase within a few centuries by by rewarding rapid, wasteful expansion rewarding rapid, wasteful expansion & discouraging conservation.& discouraging conservation.

Industrialism: The Mother of All Bubbles!Industrialism: The Mother of All Bubbles!——World Production—World Production—

Agricultural EraAgricultural Era Industrial EraIndustrial EraAgricultural EraAgricultural Era Industrial EraIndustrial Era

Fossil Fuels & Global DominationFossil Fuels & Global Domination Carboniferous energy fuels Carboniferous energy fuels

worldwide chains of worldwide chains of extraction, production, extraction, production, consumption & coercion.consumption & coercion. Factories, mines, cities, farms, Factories, mines, cities, farms,

aqueducts, railways, electricity aqueducts, railways, electricity grids, pipelines, freeways, grids, pipelines, freeways, harbors, airports, communication harbors, airports, communication networks, prisons, governments networks, prisons, governments & military bases cannot operate & military bases cannot operate without them.without them.

This global system is This global system is dominated by financial dominated by financial institutions, MNCs & powerful institutions, MNCs & powerful states that control access, flow states that control access, flow & use of energy.& use of energy.

No petroleum, no power. No petroleum, no power.

A Tunnel With No ExitA Tunnel With No ExitThis rapid pace of energy use is This rapid pace of energy use is

ultimately incompatible with ultimately incompatible with the system’s non-renewable, the system’s non-renewable, finite energy base.finite energy base.

Probably Probably much much closer than closer than we think.we think.

How close to an oil How close to an oil famine are we?famine are we?

As discovery As discovery declines & old declines & old oil wells dry up, oil wells dry up, extraction extraction declines…declines…BUT global BUT global demand demand continues to continues to soar.soar.

Will we kick our Will we kick our addiction or addiction or disrupt the disrupt the atmosphere & atmosphere & ransack the ransack the planet in our planet in our desperation for desperation for the next fix?the next fix?

Running on Empty--The SymptomsRunning on Empty--The Symptoms Capital ScarcityCapital Scarcity

Energy sector claims bigger share of Energy sector claims bigger share of available capital.available capital.

Demands greater subsidies & military Demands greater subsidies & military protections.protections.

Energy Famine-Economic CrisisEnergy Famine-Economic Crisis We now consume 6 barrels of oil for We now consume 6 barrels of oil for

each one we discover…but demand each one we discover…but demand still soars!still soars!

Rising energy pricesRising energy prices Inflation-stagnation-recessionInflation-stagnation-recession

Diminishing ReturnsDiminishing Returns Rising extraction costs & declining Rising extraction costs & declining

returns (EROEIreturns (EROEI**--net energy)--net energy) Before 1950: 100 to 1Before 1950: 100 to 1 Today 6 to 1 (worldwide)Today 6 to 1 (worldwide) In the US, In the US, .8.8 to 1 to 1

*Energy Return On Energy Invested*Energy Return On Energy Invested

EROEI for FuelsEROEI for Fuels

“Balloon graph” representing quality & quantity of the United States economy for various fuels at various times. Arrows connect fuels from various times (i.e. domestic oil in 1930, 1970, 2005). Size of the “balloon” represents the uncertainty associated with EROI estimates.

Net vs. Gross Hubbert’s CurveNet vs. Gross Hubbert’s Curve

Part 3: The Politics of Collapse & Part 3: The Politics of Collapse & The Fight for the FutureThe Fight for the Future

The future will be shaped by who’s The future will be shaped by who’s in power when “the shit hits the fan.”in power when “the shit hits the fan.”

Systemic Failures, Unsustainable “Solutions”Systemic Failures, Unsustainable “Solutions”

Mounting systemic failures Mounting systemic failures spur even more complex, spur even more complex, energy intensive “solutions”energy intensive “solutions” Food shortages, declining Food shortages, declining

yields:yields: Genetic engineering?Genetic engineering?

Fresh water shortage:Fresh water shortage: Desalination?Desalination?

Marine fisheries collapse:Marine fisheries collapse: Ocean farming?Ocean farming?

Deforestation:Deforestation: Tree plantations?Tree plantations?

Bee colony collapse:Bee colony collapse: Artificial pollination?Artificial pollination?

Climate change (sea level rise; Climate change (sea level rise; coral bleaching, frequent coral bleaching, frequent tropical storms, etc.):tropical storms, etc.):

Sea walls, massive migrations?Sea walls, massive migrations?

Dual Limits of Industrial CapitalismDual Limits of Industrial Capitalism Energy base depletion:Energy base depletion:

There are no known substitutes There are no known substitutes for fossil fuels for fossil fuels that will permit that will permit exponential growth.exponential growth.

If substitutes were discovered, If substitutes were discovered, they would only accelerate…they would only accelerate…

Ecocide:Ecocide: Climate chaosClimate chaos Ecosystem destruction & Ecosystem destruction &

biodiversity collapsebiodiversity collapse Environmental toxicityEnvironmental toxicity

Disease; lowered fertility.Disease; lowered fertility.

Over-population/consumptionOver-population/consumption Resource depletion (water, topsoil)Resource depletion (water, topsoil)

The Collapse of CapitalismThe Collapse of CapitalismThe Decline of Industrial CivilizationThe Decline of Industrial Civilization

Expansionist, globalized Expansionist, globalized systems of production & systems of production & exchange are becoming exchange are becoming incompatible with a shrinking incompatible with a shrinking energy base.energy base.

As industrial society declines As industrial society declines countries may be forced to countries may be forced to abandon their growth dynamic abandon their growth dynamic & adopt more static, & adopt more static, authoritarian, protectionist authoritarian, protectionist political systems.political systems. More resource scarcity & less More resource scarcity & less

trade would have ominous trade would have ominous implications for world politics.implications for world politics.

Escalating Resource WarsEscalating Resource Wars

Class Struggle & Industrial AusterityClass Struggle & Industrial AusterityIn the era of energy abundance, In the era of energy abundance,

neither working class nor anti-neither working class nor anti-colonial resistance undermined colonial resistance undermined industrial expansion.industrial expansion.

Instead, this resistance widened Instead, this resistance widened the benefits of industrialism for the benefits of industrialism for working people & peripheral working people & peripheral nations.nations.

However, this will change as However, this will change as global industrialization runs out global industrialization runs out of gas.of gas. As living standards decline, class As living standards decline, class

& nationalist resistance will & nationalist resistance will sharpen.sharpen.

Out-growing crises will become Out-growing crises will become impossible. impossible.

Co-opting ResistanceCo-opting Resistance During the expansionist During the expansionist

phase of energy abundance, phase of energy abundance, some of industrialism’s some of industrialism’s wealth was used to pacify wealth was used to pacify resistance.resistance.

Labor & nationalist leaders Labor & nationalist leaders were co-opted into the were co-opted into the “growth alliance.”“growth alliance.”

As energy supplies shrink & As energy supplies shrink & living standards decline, the living standards decline, the growth alliance growth alliance disintegrates.disintegrates.

People become disillusioned People become disillusioned with the decaying system’s with the decaying system’s empty promises & begin to empty promises & begin to consider the need for consider the need for fundamental social change.fundamental social change.

From Dependence To Self-SufficiencyFrom Dependence To Self-SufficiencyIn the 3rd World: In the 3rd World: Energy scarcity & Energy scarcity &

the collapse of export-led agri-business & the collapse of export-led agri-business & industry will radically transform industry will radically transform peripheral economies.peripheral economies. Extreme dislocation & political conflict loom Extreme dislocation & political conflict loom

on the horizon.on the horizon. Unemployed urban masses will abandon cities Unemployed urban masses will abandon cities

& return to the countryside.& return to the countryside. Land reform movements will demand:Land reform movements will demand:

Land redistributionLand redistribution Food self-sufficiency & sustainabilityFood self-sufficiency & sustainability

End fossil fuel dependent inputs & global End fossil fuel dependent inputs & global markets.markets.

Can sustainable agriculture support existing & Can sustainable agriculture support existing & growing populations?growing populations?

Industries will have to be powered by Industries will have to be powered by renewable energy & produce for a regional or renewable energy & produce for a regional or national market.national market.

How useful is the Cuban model? How useful is the Cuban model?

The Solar TransitionThe Solar Transition The amount of fossil energy that can be The amount of fossil energy that can be

burned at any time is limited only by the burned at any time is limited only by the pace of extraction, but once it’s gone--IT’S pace of extraction, but once it’s gone--IT’S GONE.GONE.

Renewable, eco-friendly technologies are Renewable, eco-friendly technologies are maturing in the womb of petroleum-scarce maturing in the womb of petroleum-scarce industrial society.industrial society.

Economies based on renewable energy will Economies based on renewable energy will “never” run out, but they cannot support “never” run out, but they cannot support rising populations, exponential growth & rising populations, exponential growth & increasing consumption. They are steady-increasing consumption. They are steady-state.state. Solar energy reaches Earth at a constant pace. Solar energy reaches Earth at a constant pace.

There are fixed limits to how much can be taken There are fixed limits to how much can be taken for human use at any time without disrupting for human use at any time without disrupting other vital life-support systems of the biosphere.other vital life-support systems of the biosphere.

Can Solar Energy Support Capitalism?Can Solar Energy Support Capitalism? There is no doubt that There is no doubt that

capitalism can & will use solar capitalism can & will use solar power as a supplement to power as a supplement to fossil fuels & uranium.fossil fuels & uranium.

Solar may become essential Solar may become essential for cushioning the decline of for cushioning the decline of industrial society.industrial society.

But solar technologies alone But solar technologies alone cannot sustain the exponential cannot sustain the exponential economic growth, limitless economic growth, limitless consumption & unrelenting consumption & unrelenting demographic/food pressures demographic/food pressures characteristic of industrial characteristic of industrial capitalism. capitalism.

A New World is ComingA New World is Coming In the 21st century, In the 21st century,

carboniferous capitalism & carboniferous capitalism & industrialism will collapse industrialism will collapse & low waste, steady-state & low waste, steady-state societies will emerge.societies will emerge.

But new sustainable But new sustainable technologies will only technologies will only provide the basic limits & provide the basic limits & potentials of emerging potentials of emerging social formations.social formations.

Within these constraints, Within these constraints, many futures are possible.many futures are possible.

Another world is Another world is inevitable.inevitable.But what kind?But what kind?

Solar Technologies DiscourageSolar Technologies DiscourageCentralization & HierarchyCentralization & Hierarchy

More evenly dispersed solar access More evenly dispersed solar access resists large, centralized, complex, resists large, centralized, complex, vertically integrated energy vertically integrated energy conversion technologies & conversion technologies & distribution systems.distribution systems.

Solar technologies can foster Solar technologies can foster production relations that are more:production relations that are more: Decentralized & less hierarchical.Decentralized & less hierarchical. Regionally self-sufficient.Regionally self-sufficient. Easily controlled by communities of direct Easily controlled by communities of direct

users & collectors.users & collectors. Potentially, they may undermine Potentially, they may undermine

international exploitation by making global international exploitation by making global domination difficult & allowing poorer domination difficult & allowing poorer societies to become more self-sufficient in societies to become more self-sufficient in energy, technology & food.energy, technology & food.

The Seeds of a New SocietyThe Seeds of a New Society A diverse movement toward an A diverse movement toward an

ecological society is emerging.ecological society is emerging. It includes: organic farmers, It includes: organic farmers,

environmental activists, simple living environmental activists, simple living advocates, anti-globalization & anti-advocates, anti-globalization & anti-war activists, renewable energy war activists, renewable energy developers, indigenous peoples developers, indigenous peoples movements, land reform & resource movements, land reform & resource protection movements, environmental protection movements, environmental justice/urban revival groups, green justice/urban revival groups, green jobs & labor unions, green businesses, jobs & labor unions, green businesses, eco-friendly religious organizations, eco-friendly religious organizations, green & other progressive political green & other progressive political parties & organizations…parties & organizations…

The most celebrated gathering of this The most celebrated gathering of this network is the World Social Forum. network is the World Social Forum.

Good News & Bad NewsGood News & Bad NewsThe Good News…The Good News… Increased Global Grassroots ActivismIncreased Global Grassroots Activism

Addressing ecological & social crises will Addressing ecological & social crises will require global cooperation & local require global cooperation & local activism.activism.

The material basis for co-opting activism The material basis for co-opting activism will decline as the legitimacy of the old will decline as the legitimacy of the old system crumbles.system crumbles.

The Bad News:The Bad News: The Path Forward is BlockedThe Path Forward is Blocked Rule by Fear, Force & FraudRule by Fear, Force & Fraud

Rulers will use scarcity & economic crisis Rulers will use scarcity & economic crisis to cut wages & vital programs & turn to cut wages & vital programs & turn people against each other instead of the people against each other instead of the system.system.

Anger will be channeled into religious & Anger will be channeled into religious & racial hatred & military crusades to seize racial hatred & military crusades to seize the world’s dwindling resources to defend the world’s dwindling resources to defend the “American way of life.”the “American way of life.”

All opposition will be suppressed.All opposition will be suppressed.

Fighting for the FutureFighting for the Future The next phase in this The next phase in this

growing conflict will pit growing conflict will pit those who wish to move those who wish to move toward a more peaceful, toward a more peaceful, sustainable, equitable & sustainable, equitable & democratic society democratic society against the petro-military-against the petro-military-industrial complex.industrial complex.

The outcome of this long The outcome of this long conflict will shape the conflict will shape the future in profound ways.future in profound ways.

Crisis = Danger + Opportunity

The Outcome is in Your HandsThe Outcome is in Your Hands

The EndThe End