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Water Supply Convergence Colloquium | University of Minnesota | February 19, 2016
EXPANDING THE WINDOWTHE PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE OF MINNESOTA’S WATER
Source: Sgt. 1st Class Daniel Ewer, Minnesota National Guard
OBSERVATIONS
OLDEST RIVER GAGE
SEPTEMBER 17, 1883USGS 05211000 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT GRAND RAPIDS, MN
THE ‘WINDOW’THE INTERVAL OF TIME
SPANNED BY INSTRUMENTAL HYDROLOGICAL MEASUREMENTS (TYPICALLY, 30 - 100 YRS)
LONGRELATIVE TO THE SPAN OF INDIVIDUAL CAREERS
OR THE LIFESPAN OF SOME INFRASTRUCTURE
SHORTCOMPARED TO THE LENGTH OF TIME MINNESOTA’S RIVERS, LAKES, AND AQUIFERS
HAVE BEEN SET IN THEIR CURRENT CONFIGURATION
A.D. 1680
Source: Minnesota Historical Society
LGM
THE RATE OF WARMING
IN THE MIDWEST HAS MARKEDLY ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST FEW DECADES.
BETWEEN 1900 AND 2010, THE AVERAGE MIDWEST AIR TEMPERATURE
INCREASED BY MORE THAN 1.5ºC.
“ ”
US National Climate Assessment May 6, 2014
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000discharge (cfs) at Grand Forks, North Dakota
Source: United States Geological Survey
THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN MINNESOTA IS PERHAPS THE LEAST STATIONARY RIVER IN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
ADOPTING THE ‘LONG VIEW’ ON MINNESOTA’S LAKES, RIVERS, AND AQUIFERS
COULD HELP US MAKE BETTER DECISIONS
ABOUT MANAGING THE STATE’S WATER.
PAST PRESENT FUTURE
PAST
Source: National Anthropological Archives, Smithsonian Institution
Source: Dr. Daniel Griffin, University of Minnesota
Source: Dr. Kevin Anchukaitis, University of Arizona
FUTURE
BECAUSE IF WE HAD OBSERVATIONS OF THE FUTURE,
WE OBVIOUSLY WOULD TRUST THEM MORE THAN MODELS.
BUT UNFORTUNATELY
OBSERVATIONS OF THE FUTURE ARE NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
“ ”
Dr. Gavin Schmidt NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Source: Cook et al., Sciences Advances (2015)
CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT MINNESOTA WILL BE DRIER BY THE END OF THIS CENTURY, BUT EXPERIENCE LESS CHANGE THAN THE SOUTHWEST OR CENTRAL PLAINS.
Source: Matheus Almedia