Research requirements following

COP21 – The Paris Agreement

Frank McGovern

1. Context science and climate actions

2. Science in the Paris Agreement

3. Key issues and questions

4. A way forward

5. Conclusions

Content

Paris 2015; the end of a long road

UNFCCC adopted in 1992 during the Rio Earth Summit : IPCC 1st Reportn Berlin (1995): Berlin Mandate IPCC 2nd Report n Kyoto (1997): Kyoto Protocol (EU 2C)n Montreal (2004) Kyoto enters into force. IPCC 3rd Report n Bali(2007) Bali Action Plan IPCC 4th

Report n Copenhagen (2009): Copenhagen Accord 2&1.5Cn Paris (2015) Paris agreement. IPCC 5th Report

Context; Science Policy dynamic

Paris Agreement

n Enhance implementation of the Convention (UNFCCC)n To stabilise atmospheric Greenhouse Gas concentrations at a level that

would a avoid dangerous interference with the climate system.n To allow ecosystems to adapt naturally and ensure that food production was

not threatened

n The Paris Agreement provides definition, direction and considerable room for development.

n It highlights the needs for and role of Science and Systematic Observations

n Cannot be understood without the IPCC 5th Report (AR5)

Scientific Context: IPCC AR5

The IPCC 5th Assessment Report messages for PAn Key messages

n Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, n The human influence is clearn Impacts are evident across all continents and oceans n Carbon budget for stabilisation of the global temperature

n Science Policy interface n UNFCCC Review of the Adequacy of the long term global goal (i.e.

2C goal) and implementation.n The Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) involving the IPCCn SED report to the UNFCCC is key the goals of the Paris Agreement

Paris Agreement purpose

Three key elements

n Hold global average temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit this to 1.5°C

n Enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and foster climate resilient and low emission development in a manner that doesn’t threaten food production

n Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilience development

Paris Agreement purpose

Mitigation n Peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions followed by rapid

reductions .. to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks in the second half of the century. (informed by best science)

n Parties will present successive Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every 5 years as part of the Global Stock take

n Supporting processes on transparency, reporting etc also a key scientific challenge.

Adaptation

n Global goal on adaptation of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change

n Sharing information, good practices, experiences and lessons learned, including, as appropriate, as these relate to science, planning, policies and implementation in relation to adaptation actions;

n Strengthening institutional arrangements…synthesis of relevant information. and knowledge, provision of technical support and guidance ;

n Strengthening scientific knowledge on climate, including research, systematic observation of the climate system and early warning systems, …to inform climate services and supports decision-making;

n Assist developing countries in identifying effective adaptation practices, ... in a manner consistent with encouraging good practices;

n Improving the effectiveness and durability of adaptation actions.

Loss and Damage

n Recognises the importance of averting loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change,

n The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) is integrated into the Paris Agreement

n Enhanced action needed on: n Early Warning systems; Emergency preparedness;n Slow onset events; n Comprehensive risk assessment and management; n Resilience of communities, livelihoods and ecosystems

Global Stock take

n Parties shall periodically take stock of the implementation of this Agreement to assess the collective progress towards achieving its purpose and its long-term goals

n It shall do so in a comprehensive and facilitative manner,

considering mitigation, adaptation and the means of implementation and support, and in the light of equity and the best available science.

n The UNFCCC is to consider how the IPCC will support the Global Stock take first one in 2023

Key messages from science

n Too stay below 2C global emissions of Carbon Dioxide needs to net-zero between 2055 and 2070

n Negative emissions will be required to address any overshoot of CO2 emissions and offset emissions that cannot be brought to zero, e.g. CH4 and N2O

n A net-zero emissions energy system will look completely different from our current energy system

n Resources must be managed in a sustainable way and profound changes in land use and agriculture.

n This transition has be managed while dealing with increasing climate impacts

n What more is needed?

Total 2.29 W m-2 extra energy per square meter.

The atmosphere: Can we reduce uncertainties

WarmingCooling

Its all about energy

“4 Hiroshima bombs per second.” 90% of this energy is going into the oceans

The rest mainly goes melts ice (glaciers) and is up-take by land, etc

The Ocean has also taken up about 30% of the excess carbon dioxide also causing Ocean acidification

The oceans and cryosphere: Where is the energy going?

Research questions. 1

Can we get a better fix on the climate sensitivity? Is it a number or a function of the state of the Earth systems themselves?  Earth’s radiation balance and factors that determine this i.e. more needs to be done on aerosols, clouds and other short lived species.

“Allowable emissions”/“Emission space” depends on: climate sensitivity, stability of carbon sinks and sources including permafrost-carbon

Long-term stability of carbon in terrestrial systems and linked challenges of food production/security and need for BECCS

Impacts are clear

• Tropics to the poles• On all continents and in the oceans• Affecting rich and poor countries

PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES

Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system

Global glacier volume will further decrease

Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century

It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises

Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century

Projections

Research questions 2

How and at what rate are is the Global Climate and related Earth system changing? What are the short to medium term impacts?

What are the incremental impacts per 0.5C temperature increase or equivalent?

What are the key trends and the rate and extent of changes to physical and ecological systems, including migrating species?

The extent of sea-level rise including regional patterns and ice sheet stability (such as marine ice sheet instability)?

How is the water cycle changing, are major precipitation patterns shifting and how fragile is the cryosphere?.How are the ocean systems and currents changing, how sensitive is Greenland Ice sheet and the MOC?

GHG

Emiss

ion s

[GtC

O 2

eq/y

r]GHG emissions since 1970

SOURCES OF EMISSIONS

The main sources of emissions

Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions

35% 24% 21% 14% 6.4%

2010 GHG emissions

Energy Sector

Agriculture, forests and

other land usesIndustry Transport

Building Sector

AR5 WGIII SPM

A complex carbon cycle

Research questions 3

 What is the best way to determine a balance of GHG emissions and removals?

Can we better constrain the carbon cycle? Reduce uncertainty on Earth system carbon dynamics?

Can we provide required spatial and temporal detail on emissions and removals?

What can Earth Observations (EO) tell us about hot spots and how to manage these?

Support transparency, is effective verification of official GHG emissions and removals possible?

What are the cost effective pathways for local to global decarbonisation?

Charting a way forward

n Identification of barriers and options to address these n Economic and financial new climate economy, understanding finance flows n Institutional and infrastructural lock in and costs of transition n Technological barriers and management of transition n Social, cultural and behaviours issues and addressing these

n Provide broad scope solutions n Pathways to net zero carbon dioxide and near or below zero GHGsn Improving Human health and wellbeing n Societal resilience and security n Quality of life and sustainable development

n Linked issues n Governance and management systems n Supports for analysis and implementation of policies n Acceptability of actions e.g. land use

Charting the way forward

n The IPCC 6th Assessment Cycle (2016-2022) n Full report in time for 1st Global Stocktake n Three Special Reports;

n I.5C requested by the UNFCCC COP21n Land, desertification, food security and GHG fluxes (Agriculture & land use)n Oceans and the Cyrosphere

n Publications are essential to the work of the IPCCn Inform the UNFCCC on findings

n Regular consideration of Systematic Observations n Engage with the Research Dialogue n Contributions to the Review of the Global Goal/Global Stocktake

n Assessment and support for EU and national actions

Conclusions: …the real work starts now, research and innovation is central to this.