Energy Crisis

Submitted To:

Mr. HumayunAdil

Submitted By:

ShamimMukhtar 13

BS (Hons) IV (E)

College of Earth and Environmental Sciences

University of the Punjab

ContentsIntroduction.................................................................................................................................................3

Pakistan’s Energy Sector..............................................................................................................................3

Sources of Energy in Pakistan....................................................................................................................4

Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels): [Limited – Expensive]...............................................................4

Renewable Resources: (Unlimited – sustainable – clean).........................................................5

Alternative Sources of Energy:................................................................................................................5

Nuclear:...................................................................................................................................................6

Factors responsible for energy crisis:..........................................................................................................7

Increase in population.............................................................................................................................7

Aging of the equipment...........................................................................................................................7

Wastage of energy...................................................................................................................................7

High cost of fuel.......................................................................................................................................8

Monopoly in the business........................................................................................................................8

Non-utilization of enormous indigenous energy resources:....................................................................8

Renewable energy...................................................................................................................................9

Role of government.................................................................................................................................9

Energy planning.......................................................................................................................................9

Distribution system..................................................................................................................................9

Results of energy crisis:.............................................................................................................................10

Issues and challenges................................................................................................................................10

Proposed solution for mitigation of electric shortfall in Pakistan..............................................................11

Short Term Measures:...........................................................................................................................11

Long Term Measures:............................................................................................................................12

Proposed solution for mitigation of electric shortfall in Pakistan..............................................................13

Conclusion.................................................................................................................................................13

References.................................................................................................................................................14

Introduction Energy is considered to be life line of any economy and most vital instrument of socioeconomic

development of a country. Energy is power derived from the utilization of physical or chemical resources, especially to provide light and heat or to work machines. Energy is pivotal in running machinery in factories and industrial units, for lighting our cities and powering our vehicles etc. There has been an enormous increase in the demand of energy as a result of industrial development and population growth, in comparison to enhancement in energy production. An energy crisis is any great shortfall (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy. It usually refers to the shortage of oil and additionally to electricity or other natural resources. An energy crisis is any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy. In popular literature though, it often refers to one of the energy sources used at a certain time and place, particularly those that supply national electricity grids or serve as fuel for vehicles. Supply of energy is, therefore, far less than the actual demand, resultantly crisis has emerged. It is a worldwide dilemma. The world's energy resources can be divided into fossil fuel, nuclear fuel and renewable resources. The estimate for the amount of energy in these resources is given in zettajoules (ZJ), which is 1021 joules.

Pakistan’s Energy SectorPakistan’s energy infrastructure is not well developed, rather it is considered to be

underdeveloped and poorly managed. Currently the country is facing severe energy crisis. Despite of strong economic growth and rising energy demand during past decade, no serious efforts have been made to install new capacity of generation. Moreover, rapid demand growth, transmission losses due to outdated infrastructure, power theft, and seasonal reductions in the availability of hydropower have worsened the situation. Consequently, the demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenon through power shutdown. 

Energy Supplyo During 2009-10, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of

0.64 % and 3.09 % respectively in comparison to previous year. o Pakistan needs around 15,000 to 20000 MW electricity per day, however, currently it is able

to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW per day. This shortage is badly hampering the economic growth of the country. 

Energy Consumptiono Pakistan’s energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, and coal and LPG

sources with different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7 %, followed by oil 29.0 percent, electricity 15.3 percent, coal 10.4 percent and LPG 1.5 percent. 

Sources of Energy in Pakistan

Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels): [Limited – Expensive]

Nonrenewable resources are primarily fossil fuels emanating from remains/decomposition of animals and plants deposited deep into the earth crust and converted into oil and gas. These resources cannot be replenished. There are three main types of fossil fuels: coal, petroleum, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

a) Petroleum products:

In 2009-10, consumption of petroleum products was 29% of total share of energy. Majority of crude oil is imported from gulf countries to meet the demand. Power, industry and transport sectors consume higher quantity of petroleum followed by agriculture and households. Petroleum is also used in generation of electricity, which counts 64 percent of total electricity generation (34 coming from hydro generation). Balance recoverable reserves of crude oil in country have been estimated at 303.63 million barrels and we are extracting approximately 24 million crude oil annually, meaning if we do not explore new wells, we will exhaust our current crude oil reserves in 12-13 years.

b) Natural Gas:

Importance of natural gas is increasing rapidly. Average production of natural gas is 4,048.76 million cubic feet per day as against 3,986.53 million during corresponding last year, showing an increase of 1.56 percent. Natural gas is used in general industry to prepare consumer items, to produce cement, for manufacturing fertilizers and to generate electricity. In form of CNG, it is used in transport sector. Share of natural gas in energy consumption is 43.7 percent. Due to price differential between CNG and Petrol, vehicles are using converted to CNG and approximately 2.0 million vehicles are using CNG and currently Pakistan is the largest CNG user country in the world. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) contributes around 0.7 percent to total energy supply in country and is being imported to stop deforestation in hilly areas.

c) Coal:

Pakistan has coal reserves estimated at over 185 billion metric tons, including 175 billion metric tons identified at Thar coalfields. Coal is primarily being used in brick kiln and cement industries and approximately 67 percent coal is imported because indigenous coal is not considered of good quality.

Guddu plant is largest plant thermal operated plant with a capacity of 1,650 MW, while two largest Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Pakistan are KotAddu (1,600 MW) and Hubb River (1,300 MW). 

Renewable Resources: (Unlimited – sustainable – clean)

Renewable energy resources are those, which are naturally replenished and come from resources such as water, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat.

Hydro power:

Hydro power is generated by using electricity generators to extract energy from moving water. Pakistan is having rich resource of energy in hydropower; however, only 34 % of total electricity generation is coming from hydro power. Currently we are having 6555 MW against the potential of 41000 to 45000 MW.

Current Hydropower stations:

TarbellaDam : 3,478 MWGhazi Brotha: 1450 MWMangla 1,000 MWWarsak 240 MWChashma 184 MW

Potential Hydropower stations:  

Diamer-Bhasha Dam 4500 MWMunda Dam – Swat river in Mohamand Agency 740 MW Kalabagh Dam 2400-3600 MW Bunji Dam 5400 MWDasu Dam 3800 MW

Alternative Sources of Energy:

a) Wind:

Wind power harnesses the power of the wind to propel the blades of wind turbines. These turbines cause the rotation of magnets, which creates electricity. Though Pakistan has potentials of wind energy ranging from 10000 MW to 50000 MW, yet power generation through wind is in initial stages in Pakistan and currently 06 MW has been installed in first phase in Jhampir through a Turkish company and 50 MW will be installed shortly. More wind power plants will be built in Jhampir, Gharo, Keti Bandar and Bin Qasim Karachi.

b) Solar:

Solar power involves using solar cells to convert sunlight into electricity, using sunlight hitting solar thermal panels to convert sunlight to heat water or air. Pakistan has potential of more than 100,000 MW from solar energy. Building of solar power plants is underway in Kashmir, Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. However, private vendors are importing panels / solar water heaters for consumption in the market. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) is working for 20,000 solar water heaters in GilgitBaltistan. Mobile companies have been asked by the government to shift supply of energy to their transmission towers from petroleum to solar energy panels.

c) Agricultural biomass /biodiesel:

Biomass production involves using garbage or other renewable resources such as sugarcane, corn or other vegetation to generate electricity. When garbage decomposes, methane is produced and captured in pipes and later burned to produce electricity. Vegetation and wood can be burned directly to generate energy, like fossil fuels, or processed to form alcohols. Brazil has one of the largest renewable energy programs from biomass/biodiesel in the world, followed by USA. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) of Pakistan has planned to generate 10 MW of electricity from municipal waste in Karachi followed by similar projects in twenty cities of country.

d) Tidal:

Tidal power can be extracted from Moon-gravity-powered tides by locating a water turbine in a tidal current. The turbine can turn an electrical generator, or a gas compressor, that can then store energy until needed. Coastal tides are a source of clean, free, renewable, and sustainable energy.Plans are underway in Pakistan to harness tidal energy; however, no implementation has been made so far.

Nuclear:

Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission reaction to generate energy by the reaction of uranium inside a nuclear reactor. Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MW capacities, but there are plans to increase this capacity substantially. 

Since Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials, which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining issues in development of nuclear energy are enrichment of uranium from U235 to U238, controlling chain reaction and dumping of solid waste.

Pakistan Nuclear Power Reactors

Reactor Type MW Construction started Commercial operationKarachi PHWR* 125 1966 1972Chashma 1 PWR** 300 1993 2000Chashma 2 PWR** 300 2005 expected 2011Total 425 MW

* Pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) - Canadian based reactors ** Pressurized water reactor (PWR) – Chinese based reactors

Factors responsible for energy crisis:

Energy consumption in developing countries has been rising rapidly and substantially faster than in developed countries.

Energy is now the talk of town in Pakistan. Starting from, traders, businessmen, students, ministers all the victims of the shortage of energy.

Increase in population

The cause of the crisis has been the steady increase in the world’s population and its demands for fuel and products. No matter what type of food or products you choose to use – from fair trade and organic to those made from petroleum products in a sweatshop – not one of them is made or transported without a significant drain on our energy resources.

Aging of the equipmentOne very important reason attributed to this energy shortage is the aging of the generating

equipment which could not develop the electricity as per the design requirement. This is the responsibility of continuous updating the equipment and keeping the high standard of maintenance.We sincerely think a serious thought should be given for general overhaul and maintenance of existing equipment to keep them in good working order.

Wastage of energy

So far energy conservation is limited to newspaper ads lip service in seminars. No serious thought is being given to utilize the energy at the optimum level. A new culture need to develop to conserve energy. Some times on government level illiteracy is blamed for the failure of the energy conservation program. This is not true. Maximum energy is consumed by elite class which has all the resources of knowledge and communication. But for their own luxury they themselves ignore the problem. Government should seriously embark on energy conservation program.

High cost of fuel

The cost of crude oil has increased. It means the generation from thermal units are costing exorbitant price. WAPDA and KESC when purchasing electricity on higher cost are not eager to keep on selling the electricity on loss. Therefore they do not move on general complain of load shedding. One simple solution is to increase the energy cost. Again the theft of electricity from the consumers adding the misery of common citizen who wants to pay the bills honestly. The problem of the energy losses is being discussed for more than a decade and in spite all efforts no solution has been found.

Monopoly in the business

Wapda and KESC are two generation and dispatch units in Pakistan. Although NEPRA is a government authority to settle the tariff issues but the fact remains that once the question of WAPDA comes the authority has a very little influence.This is suggested that private sector should be allowed to install power plant and settle the electricity to consumers.

Pakistan is blessed with large amount of the coal. Again no serious work is done to explore the coal for power generation. This is complained that the coal quality is inferior. However tailored made solutions are available to burn any type of coal. Government is looking for private sector to play its role.In our opinion the government itself should come forward and install the power plants on the site of coal mines only.

Non-utilization of enormous indigenous energy resources:

 Thar Coal:

 Pakistan is having one of the largest coal fields in Thar, having reserves of more than 175 billion tones, which exceeds equivalent oil reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iran etc.  In addition to power generation, and this coal can be used for chemical and fertilizer production. Moreover, employment provided to workforce can be instrumental in increasing GDP and economic prosperity to many families.

Hydropower generation:

 Pakistan has potential of hydro resources to generate 41000 to 45000 MW, however, only 6555 MW is currently being generated by this important renewable resource.  Four large hydropower dams namely Kalabagh 3600 MW, Bhasha 4500 MW, Bunji 5400 MW and Dasu 3800 MW can be constructed to generate hydroelectricity.  Similarly, many small to medium hydro plants can be installed on rivers and canals etc.

Renewable energy

The government is exerting great efforts to develop the renewable energy. PPIB has issued letter of intent to many private sector sponsors. If a serious work is done then the total shortage can be met from Hydro and wind power sector.This is also suggested that small loans should be provided to consumers to install small hydro and solar cells for one family usage of electricity. The mechanism should be made that instead of monthly bills loan recovery each month to be carried out.

Role of government

So far the government is looking for private sector investment in energy sector and for itself it chooses a role of facilitator and arbitrator. We strongly suggest that a massive investment from government itself in generating units for conventional as well as new technologies is needed. Once the government sector embarks on massive plans then private sector will follow immediately.

Energy planning

In spite higher costs immediate relief is only possible with thermal power plants which can be commissioned in 24 months. A comprehensive and realistic planning will help to develop generating units in Pakistan which will be a catalytic element for the economic growth, poverty elevation and prosperity in Pakistan.

Distribution system

Wapdabriefing highlight the poor distribution system as the main cause of tripping and break down of the system. However we consider as the last of our concern.

Major Accidents and Natural Calamities: Major accidents like pipeline burst and natural calamities like eruption of volcanoes, floods,

earthquakes can also cause interruptions to energy supplies. The huge gap between supply and demand of energy can raise the price of essential items which can give rise to inflation.

Wars and Attacks: Wars between countries can also hamper supply of energy especially if it happens in Middle East countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, UAE or Qatar. That’s what happened during 1990 Gulf war when price of oil reached its peak causing global shortages and created major problem for energy consumers.

Miscellaneous Factors:  Tax hikes; strikes, military coup, political events, severe hot summers or cold winters can cause

sudden increase in demand of energy and can choke supply. A strike by unions in an oil producing firm can definitely cause an energy crisis.

Results of energy crisis: The acute power crisis that has gripped Pakistan over the last few years has had a major impact

on the economic, political and social well-being of the country. The crisis is the most palpable to an average citizen of the country in terms of its direct and trickle down effects.

Following are some of the major impacts the crisis has had on the country:

Economic Impact- Growth rate hampered Impact on Industry- Closure of Industry Impact on Social Life- Job opportunities lost Political ramifications- Declining popularity of the Government According to a very recent Asia Development bank Survey, power crisis has been termed

as the major culprit in putting brakes on the economic growth of the country. Impacts on Industrial Sector

• Decline of GDP• Decline of Foreign Reservoirs• Less Export More Import• Unemployment• Brain-Drain Takes Place

Importance of Industrial sector• GDP Contribution• Employment Opportunities• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) involvement/interest• Basic Infrastructure Fulfillment

Issues and challengesThe introduction of renewable energy on a large scale, both in networks and network applications

in Pakistan has many problems and challenges. They are:

1. The success stories should be created, which can be replicated. 2. Integrated FIT for each technology to be exploited , such as wind , solar , hydro, etc. capacity of

local banks to provide investment project is also a big problem because foreign lenders are reluctant to come to Pakistan in rates requires policies and attractive the current geopolitical scenario .

3. The security situation in the country is also a major threat at this time. Foreign investors are reluctant to come to Pakistan.

4. R & D and the adoption of appropriate technologies is also an important issue in the current circumstances. No university is willing to assume this role.

5. Capacity problems are in the public sector institutions, the private sector and financial institutions.

6. According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2011), 38 % of people in Pakistan remain without access to electricity. More than half of the rural population currently has access to electricity, which forces them to live a life of poor quality of poverty and social inequality.

7. Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) of Pakistan estimates indicate that more than 40,000 villages across the country that cannot provide electricity, it would not be technically and economically feasible to expand the national rural networks. Of these 40,000 villages, 6,968 were identified in Baluchistan. Renewable energy can be used effectively to sustainable poverty reduction and development in these areas by improving opportunities for sustainable livelihoods. Rural requirements.

8. To belong to electricity, and are not limited to , lighting, heating and cooking , drinking water, food , small commercial and industrial establishments and production applications, such as pumping crop processing of water / irrigation , refrigeration and motive power.

Following main challenges are there for the introduction of renewable energy in off-grid areas:

1. The lack of information prevents coverage in rural areas of Pakistan. There is very little information available on demand and supply. Background information on the evaluation of the energy needs of people living in rural areas outside the network is unavailable. There are few centers of knowledge of potential supplier’s investor / technology / about potential microfinance clients and their needs, action is required to serve in these areas. Also, people who live in these areas or customers are not aware of the resources where they can use to solve their problems related to energy, due to physical and social infrastructure of the poor. Operations and maintenance problems, and lack of availability of trained technicians in these remote regions.

2. The perception of risk, since it is a new product for a new market, and the high cost of renewable energy equipment is also a concern. Most people living in areas outside the network are at or below the poverty line and have the capacity to pay their electricity bills.

3. The situation of law and unstable, volatile and explosive order, both in Khyber PakhtoonKhawa and

4. Baluchistan is a serious problem. Developed and developing countries have realized that the key to achieving and maintaining prosperity and sovereignty is to have the independence and autonomy in access and subsequent use of energy. With the responsibility to keep climate change under control for the sake of the future of our world, which led to a high emphasis of all time in the use of renewable energy resources in the world.

Proposed solution for mitigation of electric shortfall in PakistanGiven the existing ground realities, it is impossible to overcome the crisis through measures short,

however, are conducting short-term measures to reduce seizures. To respond to this crisis has dimensions two measures of implementation are needed. These are short-term measures and long-term measures.

Short Term Measures:

Pakistan had inherited these short-term measures can be taken immediately to reduce the intensity of the existing energy crisis.

With the power needed immediately, the wind seems appropriate, since they are relatively easy to install as dams and nuclear power plants have five or six years to complete and power plants need at least

two years. Wind energy can play an important to solve power shortages Pakistan paper, and now the full wind maps have been studied in the country.

Government authorities must ensure the consolidation of all countries of the existing facilities for maximum generation and prevent overcharging that has been a source of power outages.

The private sector should allow the creation of plants with their own funds and loans based on project viability with the limited role of determining a fair price of power by an independent panel of government representatives of governments, citizens, industry, electricity producers and expert consensus.

There are certain plants that operate in the country that require only a small investment to revive and technical improvements. These power units must be applied to pull the economy out of abject poverty. As a result, these projects the energy flow will be maintained and will at least avoid further deepen the gap between supply and demand.

Markets and shopping centers should be strictly enforced to close his business until 22 pm. This saving in different parts of each city, energy can be diverted to domestic consumers through effective local government system.

The theft of electric power must be examined and declared a heinous crime and any breach by domestic and industrial users should be subject to criminal sanctions and cut off all power consumers.

Educate stakeholders and workers in the industrial and agricultural sectors in the adoption of new practices and water and energy efficient tend to reduce energy waste.

Long Term Measures:

It should take the following measures in the long term given the expected increase in energy consumption in the future.

Pakistan believes that third world coal reserves of 33.0 million tons in the south -east of the country, namely Thar. The answer to the long-term solution to the power crisis in Pakistan is the use of indigenous coal for electricity generation. Electricity production from coal is cheaper than thermal generation using 2 percent of Thar coal could produce 20,000 megawatts of electricity.

In the long term, Pakistan should also build nuclear power plants and dams. The government could benefit from the expertise of the Norwegian and Chinese companies in the field of dams and hydroelectric plants.

The construction of new reservoirs and dams has added importance to overcome the growing problem of water scarcity.

Rehabilitation and replacement of transmission and distribution systems obsolete is also a long-term measure by which the country can overcome the perennial problem of line losses and theft by unscrupulous consumers.

Electricity production from natural gas is Rs6 KWh compared to Rs14.5 heating oil. During the past five years natural gas allocation for power has been reduced by 53 percent to 27 percent and the use

of oil in electricity production increased by 17 percent to 38 percent. This has increased the cost of production by Rs130bn in 2010, raising key rates greater power circular debt . The energy crisis can be mitigated by reallocating gas for energy production and energy production should take priority over other sectors.

Planning objectives and major long term should be to streamline the country's foreign policy in terms of its economic and energy needs. Improve and expand links with future energy -rich countries should not be overlooked.

Proposed solution for mitigation of electric shortfall in Pakistan Perhaps one of the most important and unique applications of renewable energy is its relevance to cross the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In particular, the following MDGs relate to the role of renewable social equity and sustainable energy:

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Integrate the principles of sustainable development into national policies and programs, the reverse loss of environmental resources

Conclusion As Pakistan is currently facing a crisis of two points of threat to its energy security and low alarming Human Development Index (HDI).But the effective use of renewable energy can successfully address these issues to improve the quality of life of the underdeveloped population, economic empowerment of socially disadvantaged people and contribute to achieving the MDGs.

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