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How Beef & Dairy Will Deal with the Precautionary Principle? - Frank M. Mitloehner, PhD, Professor and Air Quality Extension Specialist, Department of Animal Science, University of California Davis, from the 2014 NIAA Annual Conference titled 'The Precautionary Principle: How Agriculture Will Thrive', March 31 - April 2, 2014, Omaha, NE, USA. More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2014_niaa_how_animal_agriculture_will_thrive
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How shall Beef and Dairy Deal with the Precautionary Principle regarding
Environmental Quality?NIAA, Omaha, NE, April 1, 2014
Frank Mitloehner, PhDProfessor & Air Quality CE SpecialistDept Animal ScienceUniversity of California, Davis
GHG & GWP
Global Warming Potential (GWP) of Main GHG
Carbon Dioxide, CO2 1
Methane, CH4 25
Nitrous Oxide, N2O 298
CO2 – Carbon Dioxide CH4 – Methane N2O – Nitrous Oxide
Carbon Dioxide and Carbon Flux
U.S. – the big GHG picture
Source: EPA (2009)
“Livestock’s Long Shadow” (FAO, 2006)
• “The Livestock sector is a major player, responsible for 18% of GHG emissions measured in CO2e. This is a higher share than transport”
16
10
020
030
040
050
0In
dex
num
ber:
1961
=10
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Roots and tubers CerealsMeat MilkEggs
Per caput consumption of major food items in developing countries – kg per caput per year (index numbers 1961=100)
Consumption is growing rapidly in
developing countries
Eggs
Meat
Milk
17
Per capita GDP and meat consumption by country, 2005.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)
Per
cap
ita
mea
t co
nsu
mp
ion
(kg
/yea
r)
USA
Japan
China
Brazil
Malaysia
Germany
Ghana
NorwayLithuania
... driven by incomes ...
Global livestock distribution
FAO (2006)
Distribution of cropland
FAO (2006)
Mt
CO
2-eq
Time (years)
GHG by Regions
Production efficiency and pollution is inversely related
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Output per cow, kg FPCM per year
kg C
O2-
eq. p
er k
g FP
CM
More Milk Produced per Cow – Less Methane & Waste
California Cow Mexican Cow
20,000
lbs/yr/cow
500 g 2000 g Methane
Production
4,000 lbs/yr/cow
FAO (2010)
Emission Intensities (direct emissions from livestock)
GTAP 2001 data base
Mitigation: interventions to improve productivity
Gill et al. (2010)
US Dairy trends
• Today, there are 9 million dairy cows in the US, 16 million fewer than existed in 1950.
• Even though cow number have decreased dramatically (1950 versus 2013), milk production nationally has increased 60 percent.
• The carbon footprint of a glass of milk is 2/3 smaller today than it was 70 years ago.
China Swine Example
• China’s five year plan focuses on making farms larger and more efficient
• Half of the world’s pigs live in China• 50 million sows w/ 20 piglets born alive• Equals annual production of 1 Billion pigs• Pre-weaning mortality causes 400 Million
pigs to never make it to the market• One more pig per sow would mean
1 Million tons of feed saved
Sustainable Intensification is key!
• Production intensity enhances biological efficiency
• Production intensity and emission intensity are inversely related
Partnership on Livestock Environmental Assessment &
Performance (LEAP)
• Globally harmonized methodology for environmental footprints
• LEAP = national governments, livestock industry, non-governmental and civil society organizations, leading researchers
Frank Mitloehner, PhDAir Quality CE SpecialistAnimal Science Department University of California, Davis(530) [email protected]
