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Global overview Disasters can occur as a consequence of the impact of a natural or a human-caused hazard. Natural hazards comprise phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, tsunamis, tropical cyclones and other severe storms, tornadoes and high winds, river and coastal flooding, wildfires and associated haze, drought, sand and dust storms, and infestations. Human-caused hazards may be intentional, such as the illegal discharge of oil, or accidental such as toxic spills or nuclear meltdown. All of these can expose people, ecosystems, flora and fauna to threats. The poor are the most vulnerable to disasters because they have fewer resources and capacity to prevent or cope with the impacts. Natural disasters People and the environment are increasingly suffering from the effects of natural disasters. There are a number of reasons for this such as high population growth and density, migration and unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation and possibly global climate change. The sheer scope of the socio- economic impacts of natural disasters has brought about a shift in the political approach to dealing with the concept of risk in modern societies. Comparing the past two decades, the number of people killed in natural and non-natural disasters was higher in the 1980s (86 328 annually) than in the 1990s (75 252 annually). However, more people were affected by disasters in the 1990s — up from an average of 147 million a year in the 1980s to 211 million people a year in the 1990s. While the number of geophysical disasters has remained fairly steady, the number of hydrometeorological disasters (those caused by water and weather) has increased (see figure on page 271). In the 1990s, more than 90 per cent of those killed in natural disasters lost their lives in hydrometeorological events such as droughts, windstorms and floods. While floods accounted for 270 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002 Disasters ‘A disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope on its own resources.’ — Source: UNDHA 2001 UNEP, Edwin C. Tuyay, Topham Picturepoint

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Global overview

Disasters can occur as a consequence of the impact ofa natural or a human-caused hazard. Natural hazardscomprise phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanicactivity, landslides, tsunamis, tropical cyclones andother severe storms, tornadoes and high winds, river

and coastal flooding, wildfires and associated haze,drought, sand and dust storms, and infestations.Human-caused hazards may be intentional, such as theillegal discharge of oil, or accidental such as toxicspills or nuclear meltdown. All of these can exposepeople, ecosystems, flora and fauna to threats. Thepoor are the most vulnerable to disasters because theyhave fewer resources and capacity to prevent or copewith the impacts.

Natural disastersPeople and the environment are increasingly sufferingfrom the effects of natural disasters. There are anumber of reasons for this such as high populationgrowth and density, migration and unplannedurbanization, environmental degradation and possiblyglobal climate change. The sheer scope of the socio-economic impacts of natural disasters has broughtabout a shift in the political approach to dealing withthe concept of risk in modern societies.

Comparing the past two decades, the number ofpeople killed in natural and non-natural disasters washigher in the 1980s (86 328 annually) than in the1990s (75 252 annually). However, more people wereaffected by disasters in the 1990s — up from anaverage of 147 million a year in the 1980s to 211million people a year in the 1990s. While the numberof geophysical disasters has remained fairly steady, thenumber of hydrometeorological disasters (thosecaused by water and weather) has increased (seefigure on page 271). In the 1990s, more than 90 percent of those killed in natural disasters lost their livesin hydrometeorological events such as droughts,windstorms and floods. While floods accounted for

2 7 0 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

Disasters

‘A disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of society,causing widespread human, material or environmental losseswhich exceed the ability of affected society to cope on its ownresources.’ — Source: UNDHA 2001

UN

EP, Edwin C. Tuyay, Topham

Picturepoint

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more than two-thirds of people affected by naturaldisasters, they are less deadly than many other typesof disaster, accounting for only 15 per cent of deaths(IFRC 2001).

The social and economic costs of disasters varywidely and are difficult to estimate on a global basis.Insurance claims tend to be misleading as an estimateof the economic impact of disasters. Consideringinsured damage claims for the 1999 floods in Austria,Germany and Switzerland, at least 42.5 per cent ofdamage was covered by disaster insurance. But inVenezuela the same year, only 4 per cent of flooddamage was covered (CRED-OFDA 2002). There is aneed for reliable and systematic data on disasters tohelp assess their socio-economic and environmentalimpacts in both the short and the long term. Butalthough communities in developing countries sufferfrom numerous local-scale disasters such as wildfires,small floods, droughts and pest infestations, these areoften not reflected in disaster statistics.

The most expensive disasters in purely financialand economic terms are floods, earthquakes andwindstorms but events such as drought and faminecan be more devastating in human terms. Whileearthquakes accounted for 30 per cent of estimateddamage, they caused just 9 per cent of all fatalities dueto natural disasters. In contrast, famine killed 42 percent, but accounted for just 4 per cent of damage overthe past decade (IFRC 2001). In 1999, global financiallosses from natural catastrophic events wereestimated to exceed US$100 billion — the secondhighest figure on record. A total of 707 large eventswere recorded compared to 530 to 600 events inprevious years. It is even more striking that thenumber of major catastrophic events over the pastdecade has increased threefold in comparison with the1960s, while the rate of economic losses has increasedby a factor of almost nine over the same period(Munich Re 2001).

Between 1995 and 1997, the impacts of naturalhazards cost the United States at least US$50 billion ayear, or the equivalent of about US$1 billion a week(IDNDR 1999a). The economic losses of the UnitedStates because of the 1997-98 El Niño event wereestimated at US$1.96 billion or 0.03 per cent of GDP.Ecuador suffered equivalent financial losses but thisrepresented 11.4 per cent of its GDP. The floods inChina in 1991, 1994-95 and 1998 caused lossesranging from US$20 to 35 billion (CNC-IDNDR 1999).

DISASTERS 2 7 1

1950

2000

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

earthquake

flood

storm

other

Numbers of great natural disasters per year, 1950–2001

Graph shows increasing trend in frequency of ‘great’ natural disasters. Catastrophes are classed as greatif the ability of the region to help itself is overtaxed, making inter-regional or international assistancenecessary, as is usually the case when thousands of people are killed, hundreds of thousands madehomeless or when a country suffers substantial economic losses

Source: Munich Re 2001

Recent disasters caused by extreme natural events

The year 2000● Mongolian herders had their hardestwinter for 30 years — 2.4 millionlivestock died and 45 per cent of thecountry’s population was affected.● In February and March, floodskilled 650 people and left more thanhalf a million homeless inMozambique. Heavy rains also affectedBotswana, Swaziland and Zimbabwe.● Cyclones Eline (mid-February) andGloria (early-March) left 184 000people in need of immediate reliefsupport out of the total of 737 000affected in Madagascar. In early April, athird cyclone, Hudah, hit the north ofthe island.● Floods in September and Octoberin Southeast Asia, especially Viet Namand Thailand, killed approximately 900people and left 4 million homeless orwith insufficient shelter. Lossesestimated at US$460 million.● Hurricane Keith in October killedeight and affected 62 000 people inBelize. Direct losses estimated atUS$520 million.● In mid-October, heavy rains causedfloods in the Italian and Swiss Alpskilling 38 people and causing economiclosses estimated at US$8.5 billion. ● Similar floods killed six people andcaused US$1.5 billion loss in theUnited Kingdom in November.

The year 2001● In mid- to late January, heavy rainsover Zambezia Province caused theLicungo River to flood in Mozambique.Nearly 500 000 people were affectedby the floods. ● In March, floods devastated a widearea of northeastern Hungary,northwestern Romania and westernUkraine. Tens of thousands of peoplewere forced to move.● Flash floods unexpectedly struckparts of Pakistan on 23 July. The citiesof Islamabad and Rawalpindi were theworst affected. 132 people were killed.● In mid-November, as many as 576Vietnamese had been killed by naturaldisasters, mainly floods and typhoons.Material losses amounted to more thanUS$200 million. ● A persistent multi-year drought inCentral and Southwest Asia hadaffected about 60 million people byNovember 2001. ● After several months of drought,devastating floods tore through theAlgerian capital Algiers on 10November, killing 751 people.Thousands were injured, and about40 000 people were left homeless.

Source: ReliefWeb (2002), Munich Re 2001

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The annual loss from natural disasters over the periodfrom 1989 to 1996 is estimated to range from 3 to 6per cent of China's GDP, averaging 3.9 per cent. InDecember 1999, the Anatol, Lothar and Martin stormsgenerated losses in northern Europe amounting toUS$5–6 billion (Munich Re 2001). Less developedcountries with limited economic diversity and poorinfrastructure must not only rely mostly on externalrelief if a disaster happens but their economies needmore time to recover. In developed economies,governments, communities and individuals havegreater capacities to cope with disasters, the economiclosses are to some extent absorbed by a diversifiedeconomy, and most assets are insured.

Among the least developed countries, 24 of the 49face high levels of disaster risk; at least six of themhave been affected by between two and eight majordisasters per year in the past 15 years, with long-termconsequences for human development (UNDP 2001).Since 1991, more than half of all the disasters reportedoccurred in countries with medium levels of humandevelopment (see ‘Socio-economic background’).However, two-thirds of those killed came fromcountries with low levels of human development,while just 2 per cent came from highly developedcountries. The effect of development on disasters isdramatic: on average, 22.5 people die per reporteddisaster in highly developed countries, 145 die perdisaster in countries with medium humandevelopment, and 1 052 people die per disaster incountries with low levels of development (IFRC 2001).

A number of experts link the current trend inextreme weather events with an increase of the globalmean temperature. Many parts of the world havesuffered major heat waves, floods, droughts and otherextreme weather events. While individual events,

such as El Niño-related phenomena (see box), cannotbe directly linked to human-induced climate change,the frequency and magnitude of these types of eventsare predicted to increase in a warmer world. Thechanges in the global mean temperature are ‘verylikely’ to affect parameters such as precipitationpatterns, wind velocities, soil moisture and vegetationcover which appear to influence the occurrence ofstorms, hurricanes, floods, drought and landslides(IPCC 2001). For example, the extent of damage fromstorm surges can be directly linked to sea levelvariations.

Climate change and variability alone do not explainthe increase in the impacts related to disasters.‘Natural’ can be a misleading description for disasterssuch as the droughts, floods and cyclones which afflictmuch of the developing world. Identifying human-induced root causes, and advocating structural andpolitical changes to combat them, is long overdue(IFRC 2001). For example, destruction of the naturalenvironment because of logging or inappropriate landuses for short-term economic gain is one of the major

2 7 2 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

The 1997-98 El Niño event affected virtually every region:Eastern Africa suffered drought and unusually high rainfall;Southeast Asia and North America, abnormally warmperiods; South Asia, drought; Latin America and theCaribbean, unusually high rainfall and drought; and thePacific Islands unusually high rainfall. The global socio-economic impacts were varied:

● More than 24 000 people died because of high winds,floods or storm tides that occurred during intense storms.● More than 110 million people were affected and morethan 6 million people were displaced as communityinfrastructures, including housing, food storage, transportand communications, were lost during storms.● Direct economic losses exceeded US$34 billion.● Waterlogging of fields reduced agricultural production inmany regions; in others, the absence of storms and rain ledto prolonged dry spells, loss of crops and reduction in watersupplies. ● Wildfires were more frequent and widespread duringextended dry periods.● Increased incidence of disease followed the prolongeddisruption to weather and rainfall patterns that resulted incontamination of water supplies or a more favourableenvironment for disease-carrying insect vectors.

Sources: WMO 1999, UNU 2001

Socio-economic effects of the 1997–98 El Niño

90

45

0

60

1950

2000

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

15

30

75

>167

Economic costs of great natural disasters (US$billion), 1950–2000

In comparisonwith the 1960s,economic lossesduring the 1990sincreased by afactor of almostnine

Note: chart showsonly the cost of‘great’ naturalcatastrophes — seefigure on page 271for definition

Source: Munich Re2001

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factors promoting floods or mudslides such as thosethat hit Venezuela in December 1999. Similarly, themigration of population to urban and coastal areasincreases human vulnerability as population densitiesincrease, infrastructure becomes overloaded, livingareas move closer to potentially dangerous industries,and more settlements are built in fragile areas such asfloodplains or areas prone to landslides. As a result,natural catastrophes affect more people and economiclosses are increased. For example, despite the factthat seismic activity has remained constant overrecent years, the effects of earthquakes on the urbanpopulation appear to be increasing.

Human-induced disastersA number of major accidents involving chemicals andradioactive materials have drawn attention worldwideto the dangers of mismanagement, particularly in thetransport, chemical and nuclear power sectors. Theseevents often have impacts that transcend nationalboundaries; they also emphasize the fact that issues oftechnological safety concern more than just thedeveloped countries.

Some disasters have resulted in the introduction ofvoluntary or mandatory regulations designed toprevent similar occurrences. Public concern followingthe explosion in 1976 at a pesticide plant in Seveso,Italy, with the release of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), led to the introduction in 1982 of aEuropean Directive on the major-accident hazards ofcertain industrial activities. Similarly, other majoraccidents, such as the methyl isocyanate leak atBhopal, India, in 1984 and the Switzerland-Sandozwarehouse fire in Basel in 1989, stimulated legislation

in many countries to prevent and control chemicalincidents. Influenced by the Bhopal accident, inparticular, the International Labour Office developedin 1993 the Convention Concerning the Prevention ofMajor Industrial Accidents No. 174 and the Preventionof Major Industrial Accidents Recommendation No.181. These documents call for an internationalexchange of relevant information, development ofpolicies aimed at addressing the major accident risks,hazards and their consequences, and recognition that amajor accident could have serious impacts on humanlife and the environment.

Major nuclear accidents such as those at ThreeMile Island in the United States in 1979 and atChernobyl in 1986 have not only catalysed action tostrengthen nuclear safety and emergencypreparedness but also forced many countries to

DISASTERS 2 7 3

On 17 August 1999, an earthquake with a magnitude of7.4-7.8 on the Richter scale hit the city of Izmit, Turkey,and the surrounding areas. Damage from the earthquakewas estimated at more than US$13 billion. More than15 000 people were killed, 25 000 others were injured and600 000 people were left homeless. The earthquake wasblamed for increasing the national account deficit of someUS$3 billion in 1999-2000 (equivalent to about 1.5 percent of the GNP).

A significant part of the damage could have been avoidedhad local building codes been effectively implemented.Many new buildings had not been properly designed, hadnot been built on foundations strong enough to resistearthquakes, and had not been sited in areas where theeffects of earthquakes would have been diminished.

Source: ISDR 1999

The 1999 earthquake in Izmit, Turkey

Apartment blocksplit in two bythe 1999earthquake inIzmit, Turkey

Source: AlexanderAllmann, Munich Re

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abandon or severely restrict development of thenuclear power sector. Following the Chernobylaccident, two major international treaties wereadopted — the Convention on Assistance in the Caseof Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency andthe Convention on the Early Notification of a NuclearAccident. Most recently, the 1994 Convention onNuclear Safety, committing parties to a higher level ofnuclear safety, and the 1997 joint Convention on theSafety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety ofRadioactive Waste Management were adopted.

The 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska resultedin enormous environmental and economic damagesand catalysed the development of the ‘ValdezPrinciples’ — a voluntary code of conduct forcorporate behaviour towards the environment — bythe Coalition for Environmentally ResponsibleEconomics (CERES). The ‘Valdez Principles’ guidecorporations in the establishment of environmentallysound policies and require the raising of corporateenvironmental safety standards and the taking ofresponsibility for environmental harm that may becaused by them (Adams 1994).

International policy responsesUntil the 1970s, the international communityconsidered disasters as exceptional circumstances,when local coping capacities were exhausted andexternal emergency relief was required. The termdisaster management was generally equivalent todisaster response and tended to be within theexclusive competence of organizations such as theRed Cross and Red Crescent Societies or national civildefence institutions.

In 1971, the United Nations Disaster Relief Office,now the United Nations Office for the Coordination ofHumanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), was established tomobilize and coordinate relief activities from allsources in times of disaster. The concept of disasterpreparedness was developed during the 1970s and1980s, and included training and some cross-sectoralactivities to increase capacity for rescue, relief andrehabilitation during and after a disaster. But even themost pessimistic forecasts could not have foreseen theupward spiral in negative socio-economicconsequences of natural disasters in the closingdecades of the 20th century.

The 1990s was declared the International Decadefor Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), one of the

principal goals of which was to inculcate a culture ofdisaster prevention through the wider application ofknown scientific and technological mechanisms by abetter-informed population. In the words of UnitedNations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, ‘We must,above all, shift from a culture of reaction to a cultureof prevention. The humanitarian community does aremarkable job in responding to disasters. But themost important task in the medium and long-term isto strengthen and broaden programmes which reducethe number and cost of disasters in the first place.Prevention is not only more humane than cure, it isalso much cheaper’ (IDNDR 1999b). The IDNDRsuccessfully placed risk reduction higher on thepolitical agenda, as well as setting out a number ofpriorities to be undertaken by countries and regions inthe 21st century.

An increasing number of governments andinternational organizations are promoting riskreduction as the only sustainable solution for reducing

2 7 4 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

The Chinese government is shifting the focus of its disasterpolicies from improving response capabilities to reducinghazards and risks. During the past ten years, nationalcoordination has been vested in the Chinese NationalCommittee (CNC) for the IDNDR, an inter-ministerialorganization composed of representatives from 28ministries, departments and commissions. Since 1989, CNChas been working on the National Natural DisasterReduction Plan of the People's Republic of China (1998-2010). It has also helped to develop and coordinate policiesand plans for national and local disaster reduction activities.

Motivated by the seriousness of the 1991 floods inChina, the Chinese authorities recognized the need ‘tointegrate disaster reduction into the comprehensive plan fornational economy and social development’. The ChineseNational Centre for Natural Disaster Reduction has nowbeen established within the Chinese Academy of Sciences.The centre compiles and analyses data on disasters, andpasses the results to the State Council for decision-makingresponsibilities.

China experienced its worst floods in more than 100years in 1999, which affected more than 300 millionpeople. The floods galvanized more political commitment forthe integration of risk and disaster prevention programmesinto national social and economic planning. However, Chinabelieves that there were fewer losses during the 1999 floodsin the Yangtze River Valley, despite higher water levels,because of the US$7.6 billion invested in water conservancymeasures since the costly 1998 floods.

Source: CNC-IDNDR 1999

China committed to risk reduction

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the social, economic and environmental impacts ofdisasters. Risk reduction strategies include:

● vulnerability mapping;● identification of areas that are safe for settlement

and development; ● adoption of building codes based on disaster

resilient engineering and on local hazard riskassessments; and

● enforcing these plans and codes by economic andother incentives.

At the global level, the UN has established anInternational Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR),a global platform aimed at helping all communities tobecome resilient to the effects of natural disasters andto proceed from protection against hazards to themanagement of risk through the integration of riskprevention into sustainable development. The strategy— based on the IDNDR experience and developmentssuch as the 1994 Yokohama Strategy and Plan ofAction for a Safer World and the 1999 Strategy ‘ASafer World in the 21st Century: Disaster and RiskReduction’ — reflects a cross-sectoral andinterdisciplinary approach to disaster reduction.

Implementation of the strategy, which is based onthe establishment of partnerships betweengovernments, non-governmental organizations, UNagencies, the scientific community and other

stakeholders in the disaster reduction community, isan integral part of efforts aimed at promoting theoverall goal of sustainable development. It is also anindispensable element in the search for solutionsdesigned to counter the increasing threat posed bynatural hazards (ISDR 1999).

DISASTERS 2 7 5

The fundamental goal of the UNEP disaster management programme is to reinforcethe centrality of environmental concerns in disaster management. The othercornerstone is the adoption of preventive strategies and practical measures toreduce the potential loss of human lives and property, as well as destruction of theenvironment.

The success of this approach depends on increasing public awareness of therisks that natural, technological and environmental hazards pose to societies, andon educating people about the value of existing approaches for prevention andpreparedness. UNEP contributes to this process through its programmes onenvironmental law, early warning and assessment, and Awareness andPreparedness for Emergencies at Local Level (APELL).

UNEP’s APELL programme, developed in conjunction with governments andindustry, recognizes that the incidence and effects of environmental disasters can bereduced by prevention and preparedness initiatives at the local level. The APELLconcept has been successfully introduced to more than 30 countries and in morethan 80 industrial communities worldwide. The UNEP strategy includes thepromotion of cleaner production processes and technologies, and helping countriesestablish cleaner production centres.

A major objective of the UNEP early warning and assessment programme is toevaluate the increasing vulnerability of human society due to widespreadenvironmental and climatic change in order to emphasize the need for soundintegrated environmental management, and to provide early warning of emergingthreats for preparedness and response.

Prevention and preparedness to reduce the costs of disasters

Adams, J. (1994). Corporate Crime/Our Crime:What citizens have done and can do to curtailcorporate ‘crime’. In Context, 38, 45http://www.context.org/ICLIB/IC38/Adams.htm[Geo-2-329]

CNC-IDNDR (1999). Natural Disaster and DisasterRelief in China; the China National Report onInternational Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction.Beijing, Chinese National Committee IDNDR

CRED-OFDA (2002). EM-DAT: The OFDA/CREDInternational Disaster Database. Centre forResearch on the Epidemiology of Disasters http://www.cred.be/emdat [Geo-2-330]

IDNDR (1999a). Progress and Challenges inReducing Losses from Natural Disastershttp://www.usgs.gov/themes/sndr/sndr09.html[Geo-2-331]

IDNDR (1999b). Despite Dedicated Efforts,Number and Cost of Natural Disasters Continue ToRise. Press Release, United Nations InternationalStrategy for Disaster Reductionhttp://www.unisdr.org/forum/press3.htm [Geo-2-332]

IFRC (2001). World Disasters Report 2001.International Federation of Red Cross and RedCrescent Societieshttp://www.ifrc.org/publicat/wdr2001/ [Geo-2-334]

IPCC (2001). Climate Change 2001: TheScientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group Ito the Third Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, UnitedStates, Cambridge University Press

ISDR (1999). Les retombées socio-économiquesdu seisme d’Izmit en Turquie. United NationsInternational Strategy for Disaster Reductionhttp://www.unisdr.org/unisdr/izmit.htm

ISDR (2001). The Concept of Disaster ReductionEmbodied in the ISDR. United NationsInternational Strategy for Disaster Reductionhttp://www.unisdr.org/unisdr/aboutisdr.htm [Geo-2-333]

Munich Re (2001). Topics 2000: NaturalCatastrophes — The Current Position. SpecialMillennium Issue. Munich, Munich Re Group

ReliefWeb (2002). Natural Disasters. ReliefWeb:Project of the United Nations Office for theCoordination of Humanitarian Affairshttp://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf

UNDHA (2001). United Nations Department ofHumanitarian Affairs: Internationally agreedglossary of basic terms related to DisasterManagement. United Nations International Strategyfor Disaster Reductionhttp://www.unisdr.org/unisdr/glossaire.htm [Geo-2-335]

UNDP (2001). Disaster Profiles of the LeastDeveloped Countries. Geneva, United NationsDevelopment Programme Emergency ResponseDivision

UNU (2001). Once Burned, Twice Shy? LessonsLearned from the 1997-98 El Niño. Tokyo, UnitedNations Universityhttp://www.esig.ucar.edu/un/index.html [Geo-1-032]

WMO (1999). The 1997-1998 El Niño Event: aScientific and Technical Retrospective. Geneva,World Meteorological Organization

References: Chapter 2, disasters, global overview

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Disasters: Africa

Extreme hydrometeorological events such as floodingand drought are common across Africa, whilegeophysical events such as earthquakes occurpredominantly in Northern Africa, along the Atlasmountain range, and in the African Rift Valley, whichalso experiences volcanic activity. The El NiñoSouthern Oscillation causes significant climaticdisturbances in most parts of Africa, either inducingdrought or flooding, or increasing sea temperaturesleading to cyclones.

These natural events become disasters wherelarge numbers of people or infrastructure are affected,as has occurred over the past 30 years due to highpopulation growth rates, especially in urban centresand drought-prone areas — 34 per cent of Africa’spopulation lives in arid areas compared to just 2 percent of Europe’s population (Findlay 1996).

Impacts of disasters include loss of lives andlivelihoods, damage to infrastructure andcommunications, interruption of economic activities,and increased risk of disease outbreaks. In manyplaces, these impacts are worsened by poverty andmarginalization, and overcrowding. Inadequate, old anddeteriorating infrastructure and lack of economicsecurity to provide for times of hardship also

compromise people’s coping capacities and thereforemagnify the impacts of disasters. There is growingconcern that the frequency and severity of disastersare increasing at a time when early warning systemsare inadequate and disaster management is weak(DMC 2000).

Natural disastersAfrica has experienced some of the worst droughtsand famines in terms of number of people killed ornumber affected (see table), with particularly severedroughts in 1972-73 and 1984-85, affecting much ofNorthern, Southern, Eastern and Sahelian Africa(Gommes and Petrassi 1996). Countries mostregularly affected include Botswana, Burkina Faso,Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritania and Mozambique(FAO 2001), where the impacts of famine areexacerbated by inadequate transport facilities toreceive and distribute food and medical aid (Ehrlichand Ehrlich 1990). There are some indications thatdroughts are becoming more prolonged and theirimpacts more severe (DMC 2000, FAO 2000).

The risk of damage from heavy rain is greater indrier areas than in those that usually receive higherrainfall because there is less vegetation cover toabsorb the water and stabilize soils. Expansion ofinformal settlements into the flood zone is puttingmany more people at risk of flooding, as illustrated inSouth Africa’s Alexandra Township, Johannesburg,during the floods of 2000 when approximately 3 000families living in shacks below the floodline weresubjected to flooding and outbreaks of cholera (Kim2000, World Bank 2001a).

Disasters can have severe economic impacts whichare difficult to calculate. The Western Indian Oceanislands typically experience ten cyclones a year,between November and May, which bring strongwinds and heavy rainfall. This causes destruction ofinfrastructure, particularly in low-lying areas andwhere settlements have encroached into flood-proneareas. Huge costs are incurred due to destruction ofincome-generation activities, including tourismrevenues, and rehabilitation and replacement ofdamaged infrastructure and crops.

Globally, Africa suffers the least damage fromdisasters in purely financial terms but the significanceof such losses may actually be greater in terms ofimpact on economic development. Africa’s people andeconomies are heavily dependent on rainfed

2 7 6 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

number killed number affected

1972 famine Ethiopia 600 000 no data 1973 drought Ethiopia 100 000 no data1974 drought Ethiopia 200 000 no data 1980 drought Mozambique no data 6 000 0001982 famine Ghana no data 12 500 0001983 drought Ethiopia no data 7 000 000 1984 drought Ethiopia 300 000 7 750 000 1984 drought Sudan 150 000 8 400 000 1985 drought Mozambique 100 000 2 466 000 1987 drought Ethiopia no data 7 000 000 1990 drought Ethiopia no data 6 500 000 1991 drought Ethiopia no data 6 160 000 1991 drought Sudan no data 8 600 000 1993 drought Malawi no data 7 000 000 1993 famine Ethiopia no data 6 700 000 1999 famine Ethiopia no data 7 767 594 2000 drought Ethiopia no data 10 500 000

Source: CRED-OFDA 2002

Some of the worst disasters in Africa, 1972–2000

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agriculture, and are therefore vulnerable to rainfallfluctuations. It is usually the poor who suffer mostfrom flood or drought-induced crop failure, becausethey often cultivate areas that are climaticallymarginal for crop production and they cannotaccumulate reserves for times of hardship.

Both droughts and floods can result in malnutritionand famine, and the associated food imports anddependency on food aid can affect the economicgrowth potential of affected countries. In Kenya, lowreservoir levels resulting from drought and siltationlinked to deforestation led to reductions inhydropower generation, necessitating water andpower rationing which devastated the country’seconomy in 1999 and 2000. Losses from powerrationing alone were estimated at US$2 million perday, and the cost of unmet electricity demand wasestimated at US$400-630 million, equal to 3.8-6.5 percent of GDP (World Bank 2000). In Mozambique, thecosts of floods in 2000 were estimated at US$273million in physical damage, US$247 million in lostproduction, US$48 million in lost exports and US$31million in increased imports (Mozambique NationalNews Agency 2000).

Human-caused disastersAlthough climatic variability is a natural phenomenon,the increasing frequency and severity of extremeevents can be in part attributed to human activitiessuch as deforestation and inappropriate managementof land and water resources. For example, clearing oftropical forests in Central and Western Africa hasaltered the local climate and rainfall patterns, andincreased the risk of drought. Clearing of vegetationmay also increase run-off and soil erosion. Dammingof rivers and draining of wetlands reduces theenvironment’s natural ability to absorb excess water,enhancing the impacts of floods. For example,countries in Southern Africa experienced devastatingfloods in 1999 and 2000 which affected more than 150000 families (Mpofu 2000). Degradation of wetlandssuch as the Kafue wetlands in Zambia, damming ofrivers, deforestation and overgrazing lowered theenvironment’s ability to absorb excess water andmagnified the impact of the floods (Chenje 2000,UNDHA 1994).

Over the past three decades, millions of Africanshave sought refuge from natural and human-madedisasters with both environmental and socio-economic

impacts. At the end of 2000, there were 3.6 millionrefugees in Africa, 56 per cent of whom were under 18years of age (UNHCR 2001b). Often refugees aresettled in fragile ecosystems where they exertconsiderable pressure on the natural resources, asthey have no other means of survival (see box).Refugee populations also sometimes experiencefurther conflicts with neighbouring communities,through competition for resources.

Disaster responsesThere have been no concerted regional efforts tomanage disasters, and disaster responses in Africahave tended to focus on national and sub-regionallevels. Efforts have also concentrated on responsesrather than mitigation through improvedenvironmental management and agricultural practices.

The unpredictable nature of extreme events, andthe weak economic performance of most Africancountries, makes preparation for, and relief from,disasters all the more difficult. There have howeverbeen some successes in preventing famine resultingfrom drought, such as the Famine Early WarningSystem (FEWS) project, the implementation of a newefficient seed distribution system in Niger andpromotion of more drought-resistant crop varieties.

In Northern Africa, efforts to respond to economichardship during droughts include financing

DISASTERS 2 7 7

Environmental rehabilitation of refugee camps in Africa alone could cost as much asUS$150 million a year. Visible evidence of environmental degradation is mostobvious in long-standing asylum countries such as Kenya and Sudan. Landsurrounding the refugee camps has been stripped clean of trees and vegetation. Insuch situations, refugees may have to walk up to 12 km in search of water andfirewood.

In the early 1990s, an estimated 20 000 ha of woodlands were cut each year inMalawi to provide firewood and timber for the various camps hosting Mozambicanrefugees, while in 1994, at the height of the refugee crisis near the VirungaNational Park in the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire), refugees wereremoving some 800 tonnes of timber and grass each day from the park — anamount far in excess of a possible sustainable yield. Despite efforts to restrict theimpact on the park, almost 113 km2 have been affected, of which more than 71km2 have been completely deforested. At another site in South Kivu, almost 38km2 of forest were lost within three weeks of the arrival of refugees. In December1996, more than 600 000 refugees from Burundi and Rwanda were housed in theKagera region in northwest Tanzania. More than 1 200 tonnes of firewood wereconsumed each day — a total of 570 km2 of forest were affected, of which 167km2 were severely deforested.

Source: UNHCR 2001a

Environmental impacts of refugees in Africa

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employment-generating projects to keep farmers fromabandoning lands where productivity is declining,while in Eastern Africa afforestation and reforestationprojects are being implemented to lessen the impactof future environmental changes, particularly climatechange. In Southern Africa, the SADC Regional EarlyWarning Unit, the Regional Remote Sensing Project,the Drought Monitoring Centre and the FEWS Projectadvise governments on drought preparedness (seeChapter 3). A drought fund is also in place to mitigatethe effects of poor rainfall (UNDHA 1994).

In some areas, including parts of West Africa, long-term measures such as urban planning regulationswhich prohibit developments along watercourses havebeen promulgated although resource constraints oftenprevent them from being strictly enforced. Additionalresponses include the development andimplementation of early warning or forecastingmechanisms such as ENSO forecasting, which hasbeen implemented in Southern Africa and the Western

Indian Ocean area. While this has the potential to alertrelief organizations and evacuate communities aheadof time, it has been limited by poor communicationsservices (Dilley 1997). For example, only 152 of every1 000 people in Africa had radios by 1997 (World Bank2000b).

With global warming, the incidence of drought islikely to increase in many parts of Africa. Thefrequency and intensity of cyclones and floods in someareas are also likely to increase, adding to the stresseson water and food security, and possibly contributingto outbreaks of disease (IPCC 2001). For example,Seychelles is currently outside the cyclone zone butsea temperature rise could cause an increase incyclone intensity and expansion of the cyclone zone toinclude the islands (UNEP 1999).

2 7 8 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

Chenje, M. (ed., 2000). State of the EnvironmentZambezi Basin 2000. Maseru, Lusaka and Harare,SADC, IUCN, ZRA and SARDC

Coe, M. and Foley, J. (2001). Human and NaturalImpacts on the Water Resources of the Lake ChadBasin. Journal of Geophysical Research 27February 2001, Vol. 106, No. D4

CRED-OFDA (2002). EM-DAT: The OFDA/CREDInternational Disaster Database. Centre forResearch on the Epidemiology of Disasters http://www.cred.be/emdat [Geo-2-330]

Dilley, M. (1997). Warning and intervention: whatkind of information does the response communityneed from the early warning community? InternetJournal of African Studies, Vol. 2. University ofBradfordhttp://www.brad.ac.uk/research/ijas/ijasno2/dilley.html [Geo-2-336]

DMC (2000). Ten-Day Bulletin. DEKAD 19 Report(1-10 July, 2000). Nairobi, Drought MonitoringCentre

Ehrlich, P. and Ehrlich, A. (1990). The PopulationExplosion. London, Arrow Books

FAO (2000). ACC Inter-Agency Task Force on theUN Response to Long Term Food Security,Agricultural Development and Related Aspects inthe Horn of Africa. Rome, Food and AgricultureOrganization

FAO (2001). 17 Countries are Facing ExceptionalFood Emergencies in Sub-Saharan Africa – FAOConcerned About Deteriorating Food Situation inSudan, Somalia and Zimbabwe. Press Release01/48. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization

Findlay, A.M. (1996). Population and Environmentin Arid Regions. Policy and Research Paper No.10, Paris, International Union for the ScientificStudy of Population

Gommes, R. and Petrassi, F. (1996). RainfallVariability and Drought in Sub-Saharan Africasince 1960. FAO Agrometeorology Working PaperNo 9. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization

IPCC (2001). IPCC Third Assessment Report —Climate Change 2001. Working Group II: Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability. Geneva, WorldMeteorological Organization and United NationsEnvironment Programme

Kim, S. (2000). Southern Africa Swamped byRains. Disaster News Networkhttp://www.disasternews.net/disasters/2-14-00_africa-swamped.shtml [Geo-2-337]

Mozambique National News Agency (2000).Government reports on flood damage andreconstruction. AIM Reports, Issue No. 194, 6November 2000. Mozambique National NewsAgencyhttp://www.poptel.org.uk/mozambique-news/newsletter/aim194.html#story1 [Geo-2-338]

Mpofu, B. (2000). Assessment of SeedRequirements in Southern African CountriesRavaged by Floods and Drought 1999/2000.SADC Food Security Programmehttp://www.sadc-fanr.org.zw/sssd/mozcalrep.htm[Geo-2-339]

UNDHA (1994). First African Sub-RegionalWorkshop on Natural Disaster Reduction,Gaborone, 28 November to 2 December 1994.Gaborone, United Nations Department ofHumanitarian Affairs

UNEP (1999). Western Indian Ocean EnvironmentOutlook. Nairobi, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme

UNHCR (2001a). Refugees and the Environment— Caring for the Future. Geneva, UNHCR – TheUN Refugee Agency

UNHCR (2001b). Refugee Children in Africa;Trends and Patterns in the Refugee Population inAfrica Below the Age of 18 Years, 2000. Geneva,UNHCR – The UN Refugee Agency

World Bank (2000). World Bank Board Approves$72 million for Kenya. World Bank News ReleaseNo: 2001/105/AFR. World Bankhttp://wbln0018.worldbank.org/news/pressrelease.nsf [Geo-2-340]

World Bank (2001a). Upgrading UrbanCommunities, Version 2001. Spotlight onAlexandra, South Africa. Massachusetts Institute ofTechnologyhttp://web.mit.edu/urbanupgrading/upgrading/case-examples/overview-africa/alexandra-township.html[Geo-2-341]

World Bank (2001b). World DevelopmentIndicators 2001. Washington DC, World Bankhttp://www.worldbank.org/data/wdi2001/pdfs/tab3_8.pdf [Geo-2-024]

References: Chapter 2, disasters, Africa

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Disasters: Asia and the Pacific

About 75 per cent of the world’s major naturalcatastrophes between 1970 and 1997 occurred in theAsia and the Pacific region, mostly in poverty-riddendeveloping countries (UNESCAP and ADB 2000).There has been a general upward trend in the numberof natural disasters due to hydrometeorological events(such as cyclones and flooding) in the region, whilegeophysical disasters such as volcanic eruptions,earthquakes and tsunamis have remained fairly steady(see figure).

Natural disastersVulnerability to disasters is closely linked withpopulation density and economic resources. Theimpact of natural disasters in the region is severe,with more than 1.4 million people killed, almost 4 000million affected and US$438 million in damage overthe past three decades (see table). During 1991-2000alone, the total number of deaths caused by naturaldisasters in the region exceeded 550 000 or 83 percent of the global total (IFRC 2001), the majority ofthem in Asian countries with low or medium levels ofhuman development.

The highest number of deaths occurred in SouthAsia (the sub-region with the highest populationdensity and the lowest per capita income) and thelowest number in Australia and New Zealand, the sub-region with the lowest population density and a highper capita income (UNPD 2001, World Bank 2001).

China experienced more than 300 natural disastersand recorded more than 311 000 deaths during 1971-2000; India with more than 300 disasters sufferedmore than 120 000 deaths; the Philippines, with nearly300 events, lost about 34 000 people; Indonesiaexperienced about 200 disasters with more than15 000 lives lost; and Bangladesh experienced 181events and more than 250 000 people killed.

Some areas are more exposed to natural hazardsbecause of location (on the coast, near a volcano orgeological fault). Cyclones occur most frequently overthe Northwest Pacific, over the southern end of the Bayof Bengal, east of India and south of Bangladesh(UNESCAP and ADB 1995, Ali 1999, Huang 1999, Kellyand Adger 2000). Bangladesh, China and India are themost flood-prone countries of the region (Mirza andEriksen 1996, Ji and others 1993). Hilly andmountainous areas (China, India, Nepal, Philippines and

Thailand) are most prone to landslides, which areaggravated by deforestation and cultivation thatdestabilizes slopes. Countries along or adjacent toseismic zones (Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Nepal,Philippines and the Pacific Islands) are more vulnerableto seismic events, while countries along the Pacific Rimare at risk from volcanic eruptions, particularlyIndonesia, Japan and the Philippines (UNESCAP andADB 1995). The El Niño phenomenon has significantimpacts over large areas in the region, the most affectedbeing Indonesia (Glantz 1999, Salafsky 1994, 1998).

Other disastersEnvironmental degradation and change are becomingincreasingly important in relation to both theoccurrence and impact of natural disasters.Deforestation, for example, is now frequently linked tosevere flood events and landslides. Overexploitation of

DISASTERS 2 7 9

hydrometeorological

500

0

300

200

100

400

1971

75 1996

001976

80 1981

85 1986

90 1991

95

geophysical

Disasters causedby water andweather(hydrometeoro-logical disasters)have becomemore frequentwhile the numberof geophysicaldisasters remainsfairly constant

Source: CRED-OFDA 2002

Trends in disasters (number/year): Asia and the Pacific

number killed number affected damage(thousands) (thousands) (US$1 000)

South Asia 761 2 164 034 60 881Southeast Asia 73 284 074 33 570Northwest Pacific 606 1 447 643 317 174and East AsiaCentral Asia 3 4 895 986Australia and New Zealand 1 15 761 21 900South Pacific 4 4 061 3 139

total 1 447 3 920 467 437 649

Note: Central Asia figures are for 1992/93–2000

Source: CRED-OFDA 2002

Impact of natural disasters in Asia and the Pacific, 1972–2000

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water resources has already resulted in sub-regionalenvironmental disasters such as the drying up of theAral Sea in Central Asia (see box below and feature onpage 296).

Most of the countries in the Northwest Pacific andEast Asia sub-region and the Pacific Island countrieswill be particularly vulnerable to climate change andassociated sea-level rise because so many humansettlements and so much industrial infrastructure are

located in coastal or lowland areas. For the smallisland developing states, climate change and extremeweather events may also have dramatic impacts onterrestrial biodiversity, subsistence cropping andforest food sources (IPCC 1998).

Rapid population growth, urbanization and weakland-use planning are some of the reasons why poorpeople move to fragile and high risk areas which aremore exposed to natural hazards. Moreover, the rapidgrowth of industries in urban areas has inducedrural–urban migration. This has sometimes led tomore people being exposed to technological hazardssuch as the disaster in Bhopal, India, in 1984, in whichescaping methyl isocyanate from an industrial plantkilled more than 3 000 and affected more than 200 000others (Robins 1990).

Disaster responsesAsian countries are at different stages of institutionaldevelopment with respect to disaster reduction. Some,such as Japan, have a long-established system ofdisaster management. Stimulated by the InternationalDecade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR),other countries (such as Viet Nam, see box page 281)have either strengthened existing frameworks or areformulating new ones (UNESCAP and ADB 1995).

Despite some recent achievements, significant

2 8 0 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

● July 1976: an earthquake in China took 242 000 lives● April 1991: a cyclone in Bangladesh accompanied by a storm surge caused

138 866 deaths ● February 1990 and December 1991: cyclones in Samoa caused losses of

US$450 million, about four times the country’s GDP ● January 1995: an earthquake in Kobe, Japan, became one of the costliest

natural disasters in history — 5 502 people were killed and more than1 800 000 affected, with damage estimated at US$131.5 billion

● October 1999: the Super Cyclone in the eastern state of Orissa in India causedmore than 10 000 deaths, while 15 million people were rendered homeless,left without food, shelter or water and their livestock population devastated —the cyclone damaged 1.8 million ha of agricultural land and uprooted morethan 90 million trees

● January 2001: an earthquake of magnitude 7.7 on the Richter scale rockedthe state of Gujarat in India, causing more than 20 000 deaths and 167 000injuries — economic losses estimated at US$2.1 billion

Sources: ADPC 2001, CRED-OFDA 2002, DoAC India 2002

Selected natural disasters: Asia and the Pacific

The Aral Sea: a human-induced environmental and humanitarian disaster

The destruction of the Aral Sea is now a well-known example of unsustainable development.Atlases used to describe the sea as the world’sfourth largest lake, with an area of 66 000 km2

and a volume of more than 1 000 km3. Its waterssupplied local fisheries with annual catches of40 000 tonnes, while the deltas of its tributarieshosted dozens of smaller lakes and biologicallyrich marshes and wetlands covering 550 000 ha.

In the 1960s, planners in the former SovietUnion assigned Central Asia the role of supplier ofraw cotton. Irrigation was imperative, and the AralSea and its tributaries seemed a limitless source ofwater. Irrigated land was expanded from about 4.5million ha in 1960 to almost 7 million ha in1980. The local population also grew rapidly, from14 million to about 27 million in the same period,while total water withdrawal almost doubled to anannual 120 km3, more than 90 per cent of it foragriculture.

The result was the collapse of the prevailing

water balance in the basin. Waterlogging andsalinization eventually affected about 40 per centof irrigated land. Overuse of pesticides and fertilizerpolluted surface water and groundwater, and thedelta ecosystems simply perished: by 1990, morethan 95 per cent of the marshes and wetlands hadgiven way to sand deserts, and more than 50 deltalakes, covering 60 000 ha, had dried up.

The surface of the Aral Sea shrank by one-halfand its volume by three-quarters. The mineralcontent of the water has increased fourfold,preventing the survival of most of the sea’s fishand wildlife. Commercial fishing ended in 1982.Former seashore villages and towns are now 70km from the present shoreline.

Communities face appalling health problems.In Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan, drinking water issaline and polluted, with a high content of metalsthat causes a range of diseases. Over the past 15years, there has been a 3 000 per cent increase inchronic bronchitis and in kidney and liver

diseases, especially cancer, while arthritic diseaseshave increased 6 000 per cent. The infantmortality rate is one of the world’s highest.

Five newly independent Central Asian stateshave now established a joint commission for watercoordination. Several international organizationsand bilateral agencies are providing assistance,and an International Fund for the Aral Sea and theInterstate Council for the Aral Sea Problem havebeen set up to coordinate initiatives.

The Central Asian republics have decided tofocus on demand management, aiming to reducewater withdrawal by raising irrigation efficiency.The primary objective is to satisfy crop waterrequirements. Total water withdrawal in the basinhas now stabilized at 110-120 km3/year butenvironmental degradation continues.

Source: FAO 1998

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measures and actions still remain to be taken at theregional and national levels to reduce risks and lossesdue to disasters, namely:

● the impact of environmental degradation needs tobe examined — raising awareness about thedangers of environmental degradation among thegovernments and people is of utmost importance;

● deforestation should be stopped;● mitigation and preparedness measures already

undertaken must be strengthened;● actions are needed to reduce poverty levels with a

view to maintaining the resource base andprotecting biodiversity; and

● rural development is a prerequisite for reducingthe migration of people to cities and coastal areas.

DISASTERS 2 8 1

Ali, A. (1999). Climate Change Impacts andAdaptation Assessment in Bangladesh. ClimateResearch, special 6, 12 (2/3), 109–16

ADPC (2001). Asian Disaster Management News,Vol. 7, No. 1, January-March 2001. Bangkok,Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, Asian Instituteof Technology

CRED-OFDA (2002). EM-DAT: The OFDA/CREDInternational Disaster Database. Centre forResearch on the Epidemiology of Disasters http://www.cred.be/emdat [Geo-2-330]

DoAC India (2002). Super Cyclone Orissa. NaturalDisaster Management, Department of Agricultureand Cooperation, Indiahttp://ndmindia.nic.in/cycloneorissa/ [Geo-2-343]

FAO (1998). Time to save the Aral Sea?Agriculture 21, 1998http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/FAOINFO/AGRICULT/magazine/9809/spot2.htm (26/09/2001) [Geo-2-342]

Glantz, M. H. (1999). Currents of Change: ELNino’s Impact on Climate and Society. Cambridge,Cambridge University Press

Huang, Z.G. (1999). Sea Level Changes inGuangdong and its Impacts. Guangzhou, China,Guangdong Science and Technology Press (inChinese)

IFRC (2001). World Disaster Report 2000.Geneva, International Federation of Red Cross andRed Crescent Societies

IPCC (1998). The Regional Impacts of ClimateChange: An Assessment of Vulnerability.Cambridge, Cambridge University Press

Ji, Z.X., Jiang, Z.X and Zhu, J.W. (1993). Impactsof Sea Level Rise on Coastal Erosion in theChangjiang Delta Northern Jiangsu Coastal Plain.Acta Geographica Sinica, 48 (6), 516–26 (inChinese with English Abstract)

Kelly, P.M. and Adger, W.N. (2000). Theory andPractice in Assessing Vulnerability to ClimateChange and Facilitating Adaptation. ClimateChange, 47, 325-52

Mirza, M.Q. and Ericksen, N.J. (1996). Impact ofWater Control Projects on Fisheries Resources inBangladesh. Environmental Management, 20(4),527–39

Robins, J. (1990). The World’s Greatest Disasters.London, Hamlyn

Salafsky, N. (1994). Drought in the Rainforest:Effects of the 1991 El Niño Southern Event on aRural Economy in West Kailimantan, Indonesia.Climate Change, 27, 373–96

Salafsky, N. (1998). Drought in the Rainforest, PartII: an Update Based on the 1994 ENSO Event.Climate Change, 39, 601–3

UNEP (2001). Disasters. Our Planethttp://www.ourplanet.com/imgversn/113/ngo.html[Geo-2-344]

UNESCAP and ADB (1995). State of theEnvironment in Asia and the Pacific 1995. UnitedNations Economic and Social Commission for Asiaand the Pacific and the Asian Development Bank,United Nations, New York

UNESCAP and ADB (2000). State of theEnvironment in Asia and Pacific 2000. Economicand Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific andAsian Development Bank. New York, UnitedNationshttp://www.unescap.org/enrd/environ/soe.htm [Geo-2-266]

World Bank (2001). World Development Indicators2001. Washington DC, World Bankhttp://www.worldbank.org/data/wdi2001/pdfs/tab3_8.pdf [Geo-2-024]

References: Chapter 2, disasters, Asia and the Pacific

Viet Nam has a long tradition of disaster mitigation. When the United NationsGeneral Assembly designated the 1990s as the International Decade for NaturalDisaster Reduction, Viet Nam responded by organizing a National Committee andstrengthening the role its Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control (CCFSC)plays in disaster mitigation. The CCFSC has developed programmes, plans andmeasures for disaster reduction in coordination with other relevant organizations,directed the implementation of disaster mitigation activities and coordinated actionswith relevant international organizations.

In the late 1990s, Viet Nam experienced a number of extreme events, includingTyphoon Linda (1997) in the southern coastal area. Although the human andeconomic losses were tragic, agencies at all levels strengthened their search andrescue capacities, resulting in tens of thousands of evacuations. More than 5 000people were saved by these efforts. Once the typhoon abated, the governmentprovided assistance to the local fishing communities. As a result of this and otherdisasters, the government took policy decisions for each part of the country,including improving flood resistance and protecting populated areas, bystrengthening the system of dykes and flood diversion structures in northern VietNam, policies to prevent and mitigate flood damage in central Viet Nam, and theMekong River Delta policy which is designed to prepare measures for living withfloods and minimizing their damage.

In recognition of these achievements, the United Nations awarded Viet Nam theCertificate of Distinction for Disaster Reduction on 11 October 2000, theInternational Day for Disaster Reduction.

Source: UNEP 2001

Being prepared: Viet Nam’s disaster reduction programme

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Disasters: Europe

Disasters resulting from natural and human-causedhazards occur throughout Europe, often leading tosignificant environmental damage, economic loss,human injuries and premature mortality. The overallconsequences depend on both the magnitude of theevent and on factors such as population density,disaster prevention, preparedness and responsemeasures and emergency planning. Europe generallysuffers less from disasters than many developingcountries, due to a higher level of ‘coping capacity’ interms of government ability to prepare and respond todisasters.

Natural disastersIn Europe, the most common natural disasters arestorms and floods, although earthquakes do occur insome countries. Storms and floods are also the mostcostly in terms of economic and insured losses. Thewindstorms Lothar and Martin that occurred inDecember 1999 caused an estimated €5 billiondamage to crops, forests and infrastructure while thecost of flood damage between 1991 and 1995 has beenestimated at €99 billion. One of the worst years everin terms of flood damage was 2000, accounting for

almost one-quarter of the total US$10.6 billion insuredcosts (Swiss Re 2001). In recent years, manyEuropean countries have experienced abnormally highprecipitation intensity and duration, especially inwinter months, which has led to floods in the CzechRepublic, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Portugal,Switzerland, Ukraine and the United Kingdom.Between 1971 and 1996, 163 major floods occurred inEurope. The main factors that induce or intensifyfloods and their impacts include climate change, landsealing, changes in the catchment and floodplain landuse, population growth, urbanization and increasingsettlement, roads and railways and sometimeshydraulic engineering measures (EEA 2001a).

Forest fires and droughts are a problem in thesouthern countries along the rim of the Mediterranean(Croatia, France, Greece, Italy, Slovenia and Spain)and fires are also common in the Siberian region of theRussian Federation where economic recession hascaused a severe decline in the response capacity oflocal authorities and forest fire teams. Each year,hundreds of thousand of hectares of taiga forest arelost due to fires. Around 80 per cent of forest fires area result of people’s ignorance of fire safety rules.

The average annual number of natural disastersappears to be increasing and since the late 1980s therehas also been an increase in the impacts of these

2 8 2 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

In January 1998, the 12th Conference of Rhine Ministersadopted an Action Plan on Flood Defence to be implementedover 20 years. The most important aims of the plan are toreduce damage by up to 10 per cent by the year 2005 andby up to 25 per cent by 2020. Extreme flood levelsdownstream of the regulated Upper Rhine are to be reducedby up to 30 cm by 2005 and by up to 70 cm by 2020.These ambitious targets are likely to be reached only throughan integrated managerial approach at local, national, regionaland international levels.

Over the past two centuries, the Rhine has lost more than85 per cent of its natural floodplains to buildings andagriculture. There were severe floods in 1993 and 1995.The assets that could be affected in areas at flood risk mayamount to €1 500 billion. Countermeasures, such as thepreservation and expansion of floodplains, and improvedwater storage in the entire catchment area, must aim at theecological improvement of the Rhine, its valley andcatchment area.

Source: ICPR 2001

The Rhine Action Plan on Flood Defence

Lothar, the firstof two severestorms thatpassed overWestern Europeon 26–27December 1999,caused severedamage. Thisimage shows thestorm passingover Europe at12.00 UTC on26 December,with the northernAfrican coastoutlined below

Source: copyrightEUMETSAT 2002

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disasters and their related economic losses — at leastin the European Union (EEA 1999). For example, atthe French–German border, the floodwaters of theRhine rose more than 7m above flood level about onceevery 20 years between 1900 and 1977. Since 1977,that level has been reached on average once everyother year (UWIN 1996). Actions and measures aretaken at both national and regional level to reduce theimpacts of natural disasters (see box left), thoughthere is no targeted policy. Integrated land-useplanning can, to some extent, prevent impacts onhumans. Emergency response plans have beenproduced throughout the European Union to react tovarious natural disasters, but these appear to be adhoc, generally not tested, and are considered unlikelyto work well in practice (EEA 1999).

Major human-caused disastersHuman-caused disasters cause more human fatalitiesand economic losses than natural disasters in Europe.Despite overall higher technological and safety levelsin Europe, the number of industrial accidents in theEuropean Union continues to rise (EC undated). In1997, there were 37 major industrial accidents — thehighest annual number since records began in 1985(EEA 1999). In contrast to accidents in fixedinstallations, major oil spills from marine transport andoffshore installation accidents have shown a downwardtrend (ITOPF 2000) although the total number of oilspills appears to be increasing (EEA 2001b).

It is likely that the overall risk from nuclearaccidents increased in the 1970s as more plants werecommissioned but declined in the 1990s as olderplants were taken out of service and the building ofnew ones either slowed or was completely abandoneddue to public pressure. However, quantifying the riskfrom accidental releases of radionuclides is notpossible due to lack of sufficiently detailed,comparable information. A widespread campaign onincreasing the safety of new and already functioningcivil nuclear reactors, especially in CEE countries,was catalysed by the 1986 nuclear accident atChernobyl in the former Soviet Union. Significantresources have been allocated to increasing nuclearsafety at nuclear processing plants (for example, €838million was spent by the European Commissionbetween 1991 and 1998 (EC 2001)). However, acomplicating factor is the increasing deterioration ofthe older nuclear power plants in the Russian

Federation and Lithuania built to a similar design tothe Chernobyl reactor.

Analyses of major industrial accidents indicate thatcomponent failure and operator error are the two mostcommon immediate causes but the dominantunderlying causes identified were poor safety andenvironmental management (Drogaris 1993,Rasmussen 1996). The age of process plants is afurther factor as the probability of ‘wear-out’ failureincreases with age (M&M Protection Consultants1997). Lack of expenditure on safety andenvironmental management, and operating plants pasttheir design life, are often a result of pressure from

DISASTERS 2 8 3

At 22:00 on 30 January 2000, a dam wall failed at a minetailings reclamation facility at Baia Mare in northwesternRomania, spilling 100 000 m3 of wastewater polluted withcyanide into the Tisa river and then the Danube, eventuallyentering the Black Sea, by which time it had becomesignificantly diluted. The spill devastated large numbers ofplant and wildlife species in the river systems.

The Baia Mare Task Force, set up to investigate, reportedthat faults in the design of the operating plant, includinginadequate construction of the dams, contributed to theaccident. The key problem was believed to be theineffectiveness of the permitting and enforcement authorities.The permitting process was over-complex and the Task Forceconcluded that the original environmental impact assessmentwas flawed. Furthermore, no measures were established todeal with an emergency, and monitoring of the water level inthe tailings pond where the dam broke was inadequate.

Source: BMTF 2000

Baia Mare: analysis of a mining accident

Helicopter sprayswater on one ofthe forest firesthat periodicallyplague southernEuropeancountries such asCroatia, France,Greece, Italy,Slovenia andSpain; fires arealso common inthe Siberianregion of theRussianFederation

Source: UNEP,Rougier, TophamPicturepoint

Page 15: Dmm unit

shareholders wishing to increase profitability, althoughthis may result in major losses in the long run.However, they also reveal gaps in regulation andmonitoring. The mining accident at Baia Mare,Romania, in January 2000 served as a rather soberingreminder of the shortcomings in enforcement ofenvironmental regulations in the countries of EasternEurope (see box on page 283).

Policy responsesFor many technological disasters, holistic approachesare becoming more prevalent, with increasingattention to reducing the risk of long-termenvironmental impacts as well as reducing acutehealth and property damage from accidents (EEA1999). The European Commission’s directive on thecontrol of major-accident disasters involvingdangerous substances (often referred to as the‘Seveso II Directive’), now also incorporated into thelegal systems of most CEE countries, is important inthis respect. Its Major Accident Reporting System(MARS) database and the Seveso Plants InformationRetrieval System database are practical tools helpingcountries make decisions related to risk management.

Information on the extent and location oftechnological hazards is generally improving.Emergency response plans can now be made fortechnological accidents but further efforts are still

necessary to reduce risks (EEA 1999). Since pollution does not stop at political

boundaries, one of the most important multilateralagreements in this respect is the 1992 HelsinkiConvention on the Protection and Use ofTransboundary Watercourses and International Lakes,which entered into force in 1996. This conventionincludes requirements to conduct environmentalimpact analyses (EIAs), to notify downstream states ofaccidents and it enforces the ‘polluter pays’ principle.The 1991 Convention on Environmental ImpactAssessment in the Transboundary Context, whichentered into force in 1997, requires parties to notifyand consult each other on all major potentiallydangerous ongoing projects (ECE 1991). Aninnovative approach is under consideration withrespect to a proposed joint protocol on liability underthe Helsinki Convention and the Convention on theTransboundary Effects of Industrial Accidents (REC2000).

Most European countries are parties to thesemultilateral treaties, and international cooperationunder their provisions helps governments improvenational policies in respect of human-caused disasterprevention and mitigation.

2 8 4 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

BMTF (2000). Report of the International TaskForce for Assessing the Baia Mare Accident.Brussels, European Commission

Drogaris, G. (1993). Learning from major accidentsinvolving dangerous substances. Safety Science,16, 89-113

EEA (1999). Environment in the European Unionat the Turn of the Century. EnvironmentalAssessment Report No. 2. Copenhagen, EuropeanEnvironment Agency

EEA (2001a). Sustainable Water Use in Europe.Part 3: Extreme Hydrological Events: Floods andDroughts. Environmental Issues Report No. 21.Copenhagen, European Environment Agency

EEA (2001b). Environmental Signals 2001.Environmental Assessment Report No. 8.Copenhagen, European Environment Agency

EC (undated). Major Accident Reporting System ofthe European Commission. MARShttp://mahbsrv.jrc.it/mars/Default.html [Geo-2-3??]

EC (2001). Nuclear Safety in Central Europe andthe New Independent States. Europahttp://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/nuclear_safety/intro/ [Geo-2-347]

ECE (2001). Convention on Environmental ImpactAssessment in a Transboundary Context. UnitedNations Economic Commission for Europe,Environment and Human Settlements Division. http://www.unece.org/env/eia/ [Geo-2-352]

EUMETSAT (2002). Winter Storm Lothar overEurope as seen in Meteosat Imageshttp://www.eumetsat.de/en/area5/special/storm_26121999.html

ICPR (2001). Action Plan on Flood Defense. TheInternational Commission for the Protection of theRhine. http://www.iksr.org/icpr/11uk.htm [Geo-2-348]

ITOPF (2000). Historical Data. InternationalTanker Owners Pollution Federationhttp://www.itopf.com/stats.html

M&M Protection Consultants (1997). LargeProperty Damage Losses in the Hydrocarbon-Chemical Industries A Thirty-year Review. AcuSafehttp://www.acusafe.com/Incidents/Statistics/MarshPetrochemicalLosses0201.pdf [Geo-2-351]

Rasmussen, K. (1996). The Experience with theMajor Accident Reporting System from 1984 to1993. CEC, EUR 16341 EN

REC (2000). Europe ‘Agreening’: 2000 Report onthe Status and Implementation of MultilateralEnvironmental Agreements in the EuropeanRegion. Szentendre, Hungary, RegionalEnvironmental Centre for Central and EasternEurope and United Nations EnvironmentProgramme

Swiss Re (2001). Property claims service. TheEconomist, 31 March 2001

UWIN (1996). Worldwide Paper on River andWetland Development. Carbondale, UniversitiesWater Information Network, Southern IllinoisUniversity

References: Chapter 2, disasters, Europe

Page 16: Dmm unit

Disasters: Latin America and the Caribbean

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the main naturalhazards are droughts, hurricanes, cyclones, tropicalstorms, floods, tidal waves, avalanches, landslides andmudslides, earthquakes and volcanoes. Mining and oilspill accidents represent the main human-causeddisasters in the region.

A total of 65 260 deaths due to natural disasterswere reported in the region during the 1990s. Thedeaths were mainly a result of floods (54 per cent),epidemics (18.4 per cent), storms, cyclones andhurricanes (17.7 per cent), earthquakes (5.2 per cent)and landslides (3.2 per cent) (CRED-OFDA 2002).Considering that floods and landslides are oftenassociated with storms and hurricanes, this meansthat three-quarters of total human losses due tonatural disasters in the region have ahydrometeorological origin.

The number of deaths due to disasters declinedmarkedly between 1972 and 1999, coinciding with theglobal trend. Total fatalities in the 1990s were lessthan one-third of those in the 1970s while the numberof people injured fell by almost one-half (after risingby nearly 30 per cent in the 1980s) (CEPAL 1999).This trend can be explained by fewer severeearthquakes in densely populated or highly vulnerableareas and by the establishment of early warningsystems and disaster-preparedness measures in somecountries over the past 30 years (PAHO 1998).Economic losses caused by disasters increased byalmost 230 per cent between the 1960s and the 1990s(CEPAL 1999), again reflecting a global trend.

Hydrometeorological eventsThe best known hydrometeorological event is the ElNiño phenomenon, the impacts of which can besevere. For example, after the El Niño of 1983, Peru’sGDP fell by 12 per cent, mostly because of a reductionin agricultural output and fishery. The nationaleconomy took a decade to recover. Damage in theAndean Community countries (Bolivia, Colombia,Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela) due to the 1997/98 ElNiño was estimated at more than US$7 500 million(CEPAL 1999).

Most countries in Central America and theCaribbean are within the hurricane belt, on both theAtlantic and Pacific coasts. Hurricane Mitch, which

struck the region in 1998, affecting mostly Hondurasand Nicaragua, killed more than 17 000 people and leftthree million homeless with damage estimated atUS$3 000 million. The hurricane also caused fatalitiesand serious environmental and economic damage inCosta Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador andGuatemala (CRED-OFDA 2002).

The 1999 floods on the northern coast ofVenezuela also had a strong impact, with damageestimated at more than US$ 3 200 million or 3.3 percent of the country’s GDP (World Bank 2000). In thestate of Vargas, the hardest-hit area, more than230 000 jobs were lost. The state of Miranda was alsobadly hit: the El Guapo dam collapsed, causing watershortages and 60 per cent of crops were reported lost(MoPD Venezuela 2000). It is estimated that therewere 30 000 deaths, 30 000 families left homeless andmore than 81 000 dwellings destroyed (IFRC 2002).

DISASTERS 2 8 5

Cyclical temperature and rainfall variations associated with El Niño are particularlyimportant since they can favour the development and proliferation of vectors ofepidemic diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever and bubonic plague(WHO 1999). In South America, the most severe outbreaks of malaria generallyoccur a year after the beginning of an El Niño event, whether associated with anincrease in rainfall (as in 1983 in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru) or with a reduction inrainfall and run-off (as in Colombia and Venezuela).

A similar link has been suggested between the warming of superficial oceanicwaters by El Niño, the proliferation of marine algae, and the appearance of cholerain South America in 1992. The impact of extremes in precipitation (both too muchand too little) is also important in the transmission of water-borne diseases such ascholera, gastrointestinal infections and various types of diarrhoea. There wereoutbreaks of cholera in 1997–98 in Honduras, Nicaragua and Peru related to theincrease in precipitation, associated with El Niño (WHO 1999, PAHO 1998).

El Niño and epidemic diseases

The series of earthquakes that shook El Salvador in early 2001 began with one of 7.6on the Richter scale that was initially considered an isolated event. However, it wasonly part of a series that spanned weeks and demonstrated the complex social andecological implications of such events. Besides the loss of life and infrastructure duringthe original series of earthquakes, there has been a long-lasting impact on people andecosystems. For example, the artisanal fishery lost an essential part of its dockinginfrastructure as well as service infrastructure for processing fish and transporting it tothe market on land. A total of 30 772 farms were damaged and farmers were forcedto wait for three months for the rains because they did not have the funds to repairtheir damaged irrigation systems. The destruction of 20 per cent of the country’s coffeeprocessing plants severely affected the jobs and income of thousands of rural familiesin a country that was also affected by Hurricane Fifi in 1974, civil conflict between1978 and 1992, the 1986 earthquake and Hurricane Mitch in 1998.

Source: UNICEF 2001

Ecological and social impacts of earthquakes in El Salvador

Page 17: Dmm unit

Geological eventsSeismic and tectonic activities are particularly intensealong the Pacific Ocean coast and in the Caribbeanbasin due to pressures generated between oceanic andcontinental plates. Such activity creates a relativelyhigh risk of earthquakes, tsunamis and volcaniceruptions which in some areas add to the already highrisk of hurricanes and floods. Between 1972 and 1999,extreme geological events killed 65 503 people andaffected 4.4 million others (CRED-OFDA 2002).

Human-caused disastersCertain disasters such as spills of hazardous chemicalsand oil products have a technological origin. In theOrinoco River delta and neighbouring regions ofVenezuela, for example, the use of cyanide andmercury for gold extraction has increased by 500 percent over the past decade with the growth in theexploitation of the mineral. In the Caroni Basin alone,

3 000 kg of mercury have been dumped and a spill of1.5 million litres of cyanide-polluted waste has beenreported in the Omai and Esequibo rivers inneighbouring Guyana (Filártiga and Agüero Wagner2001, AMIGRANSA 1997). The largest regional oilspill was an underwater oil blow-out of the Ixtoc wellin Campeche Bay in 1979, the second largest in worldrecords at more than 500 000 tonnes (CutterInformation Corp 2000).

Policy responsesMany countries, especially those located on islands,are vulnerable to natural disasters (see table). Themajor concerns with regard to policy include thefollowing (UNEP 1999):

● deficiencies in disaster prevention, including thelack of zoning of vulnerable areas during thedevelopment planning process;

● weak mitigation mechanisms;● deficiencies and limited use of anti-seismic

building measures, as well as inadequateadministrative arrangements and human resourcesfor enforcement;

● lack of insurance policies for low-incomehouseholds; and

● inadequate support systems for affectedcommunities.

Improving management is critical to disaster reduction,especially non-structural mitigation actions usingnatural mechanisms. For example, wetlands reducefloods, woodlands reduce landslides and mangroveslessen the effect of coastal storms and extreme tides. Ingeneral, good land use maintains healthy ecosystems,provides resources and facilitates non-structuralmitigation action. This strategy is particularly attractivein countries where risk insurance and structuralmitigation come at a high price.

Given the enormous economic, social andenvironmental burden of disasters, considerableattention has been paid during the past decade todisaster preparedness, assessment and mitigation. Manyof the actions took place in the context of theInternational Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction(IDNDR). At the regional level, its mandate forpromoting international cooperation in this field wassupported by the Inter-American Conference on NaturalDisaster Reduction held in Cartagena, in March 1994.

2 8 6 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

hurricanes earthquakes volcanoes floods drought

Antigua ● ● ● ● ●

and Barbuda

Bahamas ● ● ● ● ●

Barbados ● ● ● ● ●

Belize ● ● ● ● ●

Cuba ● ● ● ● ●

Dominica ● ● ● ● ●

Dominican ● ● ● ● ●

Republic

Granada ● ● ● ● ●

Guyana ● ● ● ● ●

Haiti ● ● ● ● ●

Jamaica ● ● ● ● ●

Saint Kitts ● ● ● ● ●

and Nevis

St Lucia ● ● ● ● ●

St Vincent and ● ● ● ● ●

the Grenadines

Surinam ● ● ● ● ●

Trinidad and Tobago ● ● ● ● ●

● = high vulnerability ● = medium vulnerability ● = low vulnerability

Vulnerability to natural hazards of Caribbean countries

Page 18: Dmm unit

Several countries in the region — such as Brazil,Costa Rica, Cuba, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala,Nicaragua and Panama — have created andstrengthened national institutional frameworks in thearea of disaster management. These include theCentre for Coordination of the Prevention of NaturalDisasters in Central America, established in 1988, andthe Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency,established in 1991. Under the auspices of theOrganization of American States, the Inter-AmericanConvention to Facilitate Disaster Assistance wasadopted in 1991 and entered into force in 1996 (PAHO1998).

Experience has shown the positive effects ofplanning and building institutional capacities. A

fundamental element is to strengthen and standardizedata production methods at a regional level, not onlyto prevent inconsistencies during emergencies butalso to assess losses. Also important are efforts toidentify the vulnerability of the territories andpopulations when faced with natural and human-madehazards (see box). The prevailing disaster response isdirected towards risk management. It has a growingcomponent of local and community participation, andmakes non-centralized use of non-governmentalorganizations and citizen groups. Within thisframework, a new vision is emerging: thedevelopment process must reduce risk by lesseningpopulations’ and territories’ social, economic andenvironmental vulnerability.

DISASTERS 2 8 7

AMIGRANSA (1997). Posición de AMIGRANSAante el decreto 1.850 de explotación de losbosques de Imataca. Press Release.Communications for a Sustainable Future,University of Coloradohttp://csf.colorado.edu/mail/elan/jul97/0068.html[Geo-2-353]

CEPAL (1999). América Latina y el Caribe: ElImpacto de los Desastres Naturales en elDesarrollo, 1972-1999. Mexico City, CommisiónEconomica para America Latina y el Caribe,Naciones Unidas

CRED-OFDA (2002). EM-DAT: The OFDA/CREDInternational Disaster Database. Centre forResearch on the Epidemiology of Disastershttp://www.cred.be/emdat [Geo-2-330]

Cutter (2000). Oil Spill Intelligence Report. CutterInformation Corporationhttp://cutter.com/osir/biglist.htm [Geo-2-354]

Filártiga, J. and Agüero Wagner, L. (2001). Fiebredel oro y ecoapocalipsis en Venezuela. ApocalipsisGeo-Ambiental. El Imperialismo Ecológicohttp://www.quanta.net.py/userweb/apocalipsis/Venezuela/body_venezuela.html [Geo-2-355]

IFRC (2002). Venezuela: Floods. Situation ReportNo. 9. Geneva, International Federation of RedCross and Red Crescent Societies

MoPD Venezuela (2000). Venezuela Rises AboveDestruction. Caracas, Ministry of Planning andDevelopment, Venezuela

PAHO (1998). Health in the Americas. 1998Edition. Scientific Publication No. 569. WashingtonDC, Pan American Health Organization

Segnestam, L., Winograd, M. and Farrow, A.(2000). Developing Indicators: Lessons Learnedfrom Central America. Washington DC, World Bank

UNEP (1999). Caribbean Environment Outlook.Mexico City, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, Regional Office for Latin America andthe Caribbean

UNICEF (2001). El Salvador Earthquakes. UnitedNations Children’s Fundhttp://www.unicef.org/emerg/ElSalvador.htm [Geo-2-356]

WHO (1999). El Niño and Health. Geneva, WorldHealth Organization

World Bank (2000). In Wake of Floods, BankUrges Venezuela to Protect Poor …. Press release7 March 2000http://wbln0018.worldbank.org/external/lac/lac.nsf/[Geo-2-357]

References: Chapter 2, disasters, Latin America and the Caribbean

Vulnerability to natural hazards: a geo-referenced index for Honduras

Pre-existing conditions in the environment,demography, social system andinfrastructure are among the major factorsof vulnerability. The Centro Internacional deAgricultura (CIAT)-UNEP-World Bank ruralsustainability indicators have generated ageo-referenced index of vulnerability thatcombines geographic information from fourmaps.

The environmental vulnerability maphighlights areas at risk from landslides andflooding using data on forests, rivers,topography, slopes, soil permeability andvegetation. The population vulnerabilitymap displays the population density per

county and the social vulnerability mapadds data on incomes and poverty. Theinfrastructure vulnerability map adds dataon electricity lines and roads.

These four maps are then combined(see map right) to show the 60 counties ofhighest priority for disaster prevention andrehabilitation (top 10 in red, next 15 inorange and the other 35 in yellow). Theinformation provided by the maps answersmajor questions such as why are somecounties more vulnerable than others, whatcan be done about it and where shouldinterventions be focused?Source: Segnestam, Winograd and Farrow 2000

Page 19: Dmm unit

2 8 8 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

Disasters: North America

Natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions,tornadoes, hurricanes, ice storms, droughts, dust stormsand other extreme events threaten different parts ofNorth America. Floods and forest fires are also priorityconcerns. North American governments have put inplace many response mechanisms to prevent andalleviate the harm caused by such factors. Despitestrong regulations governing the handling of hazardousmaterial, occasionally serious accidents occur, promptingfurther preventive legislation.

Floods and climate changeThe disruption and intensification of the Earth’s watercycle is believed to be one of the most fundamentaleffects of climate change (White House 2000). Changesmay already be occurring in North America’shydrological conditions, as demonstrated by theincrease in average annual precipitation over the past30 years (see figure). In the United States, the averageamount of moisture in the atmosphere increased by 5per cent per decade between 1973 and 1993 (Trenberth1999). Most of the increase has been due to heavierprecipitation events resulting in floods and storms(O’Meara 1997, Easterling and others 2000).

During the 1960s and 1970s, more than 90 per centof the natural disasters in the United States were theresult of weather or climate extremes (Changnon andEasterling 2000). Flooding is natural and essential to thehealth of watersheds but floods can also be destructiveand cause economic damage (see box right). In responseto these events, the United States introduced theNational Flood Insurance Act of 1968 and the 1974Disaster Relief Act. Many of the separate andfragmented responsibilities of parallel state and locallevel disaster programmes were merged in 1979 under

the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA1999). In 1975, Canada introduced the Flood DamageReduction Program (FDRP) and, in 1988, it establishedEmergency Preparedness Canada (EPC) (EC 2000).These programmes provided better flood mitigation,preparation, response and recovery measures.

Evidence shows that deaths and damage from floodshave increased sharply since the early 1970s (USGRP2000). More people and their settlements are exposedto floods because of population increase andconcentration, and increasing affluence (Easterling andothers 2000). A tendency to settle in flood-prone areasis also influenced by a perception that risk has beenlowered by protective structures such as dams, dykesand diversions, and because of the availability of disasterrelief (Brun and others 1997, Bruce and others 1999).

Structures that prevent rivers from flooding oftenprovoke extremely damaging floods when watereventually overflows (see box above). In the 1990s,the United States, which is subject to more frequentand severe weather events than Canada, began toencourage non-structural approaches to floodprevention such as resettlement projects and wetland

The 1993 Mississippi flood, which submerged 75 towns andkilled 48 people, cost US$10–20 billion, surpassing allprevious US floods in terms of economic losses, area,duration and amount of flooding (Dalgish 1998, USGCRP2000). It was the result of record-breaking spring rains inthe midwest, a larger than usual snow cover, and high soilmoisture content — but levees and dykes also confined theriver to its channel, helping increase the flood crest (Dalgish1998). In 1996, Canada experienced its most destructiveand costly flood in the Saguenay River valley in Quebec.Nearly 126 mm of rain fell in 48 hours, resulting in 10deaths and about US$750 million in damages (EC 1998b,Francis and Hengeveld 1998, EC 2001). In 1997, the RedRiver, which flows north from the United States into Canada,experienced its worst flooding in 150 years, incurring costs ofalmost US$5 billion (IJC 2000).

Floods can have significant environmental consequences.The Mississippi flood, for example, damaged much of themidwest’s fertile farmland and altered the natural ecosystemsof the region’s rivers and their floodplains (Dalgish 1998).Human modifications over the past century led to the loss ofsome 85 per cent of the river basin’s wetlands, and changesin riparian and in-stream habitat. Wetlands and temporarylakes act as storage areas for excess water and their lossincreases the vulnerability of the watershed to flooding(Searchinger and Tripp 1993).

Major floods over the past 30 years

15

-10

10

0

-5

5

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

2000

1995

Annual average precipitation departures from mean (mm): Canada

In Canada (as inthe UnitedStates), annualprecipitation(running mean,solid line) hasrecently beenabove the1951–80 mean

Source: EC 1998a

Page 20: Dmm unit

DISASTERS 2 8 9

restoration. In Canada, settlement in flood-prone areashas been discouraged through mapping and thedesignation of more than 320 flood risk areas (EC1998b). Canada established the Office of CriticalInfrastructure and Emergency Preparedness(OCIPEP) in 2001 to develop and implement a morecomprehensive approach to disaster prevention(OCIPEP 2001).

According to some climate change models, themagnitude, frequency and cost of extreme hydrologicalevents in some regions of North America are forecastto increase (USGCRP 2000). Projected effects ofclimate change include changes in the El Niño. Anuncommonly strong El Niño in 1997–98 is believed toaccount for heavy floods in Florida, California, somemidwest states and parts of New England (Trenberth1999). Where rainstorms intensify and floodingincreases, there is greater potential for damage to low-lying settlements and dock and port facilities as wellas for problems with water distribution and sewagesystems that can have health implications (EC 1999a).

The International Joint Commission assists bothgovernments in managing their shared waters. In areport on the 1997 Red River flooding, it cautionedthat, given impending increased flooding due toclimate change, a comprehensive, binational strategyshould be developed and implemented (IJC 2000).

Forest firesForest fires are a natural part of North America’slandscape and play an important role in maintainingand regenerating some types of forests (NIFC 2000).Wild fires ignited by lightning are useful for clearingout old and dead trees which are then quickly replacedby robust new trees (CCFM 2000). Such fires openspaces for new seedlings, help increase diversity, cleardebris and increase the availability of nutrients(Jardine 1994).

Since the 1970s, the annual area burned by forestfires has grown (see figure). The increase has beendue to a number of factors: fuel build-up from past fireprotection programmes; changes in policy related toprescribed burning; and increased public access toforests. Climate change has also been implicated. Therelative importance of these factors is controversial.

The United States has long had an aggressivepolicy of fire suppression and, by the 1970s, fires werekept to about 2 million ha a year in the lower 48 statescompared to the 16 million ha burned every year in

the 1930s (Booth 2000, CEQ 2000, H. John Heinz IIICenter 2001).

As a result, species normally eliminated by firebecame dominant. Dead trees accumulated duringperiods of drought, creating excessive fuel loads. Firesuppression prevented natural low-intensity fires fromburning this accumulated fuel. The result wasincreasingly large and disastrous fires (CEQ 2000).

The importance of periodic natural fires began tobe recognized in the 1970s. US policies of suppressingall fires before they reached 4 ha in size by 10 am thenext day ceased in the late 1970s (Gorte 1996).Decisions were taken not to interfere with fires inwilderness areas or national parks unless people orneighbouring land was threatened (COTF 2000,Turner 2001). In addition, prescribed burning and ‘letburn’ policies to reduce built-up fuels and protectsettlements and businesses were introduced. Suchfires are either purposefully lit or are lightning firesthat are allowed to burn. Annually, more than 2 millionha are treated by prescribed fire in the United States(Mutch 1997).

These policies have not been without controversy,however. In 1988, parts of Yellowstone — the largestNational Park in the United States — were allowed toburn after being struck by lightning. The fires spreadquickly because of severe summer drought and highwinds. Eventually a decision was made to suppressthe fires. At the cost of US$120 million, this was thecostliest fire-fighting event in US history (NPS 2000).

The challenge of managing wildfires has beenexacerbated by population increases close to fire-prone areas. It is estimated that in the 1990s wildfiresdamaged six times as many homes as in the previousdecade (Morrison and others 2000). Wildfires alsocreate smoke hazards and some highways, airports andrecreation areas periodically have to close because of

10

0

6

4

2

8

1972

1974

1982

1990

2000

1978

1986

1992

1996

1976

1980

1984

1988

1994

1998

Forest area burnt (million ha/year): North America

Since forestauthoritiesdecided to letmore natural firesburn themselvesout, the area offorest burnt eachyear has beenincreasing

Source: CCFM2000, CIFCC 2001and NIFC 2000

Page 21: Dmm unit

2 9 0 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

reduced visibility. Smoke also constitutes a healthhazard, due to the toxic chemicals it contains.

Changes in climate that may bring drier conditionsand more severe storms may also play a role inchanging fire patterns. In 1989, for example, recordfires burned in western Canada and the areas east ofJames Bay. They were caused by unusual weatherconditions and an unprecedented heat wave in theArctic (Jardine 1994, Flannigan and others 2000). The

severity of Canada’s 1995 fire season, which burned6.6 million ha of forestland, was also due in part toextremely dry conditions (EC 1999b).

In the future, North America’s annual fire severityrating may well increase due to climate change, whichis predicted to increase the number of lightningstrikes and the intensity and frequency of windstorms(Jardine 1994). Research into the links betweenclimate and forest change is being intensified.

Booth, W. (2000). ‘Natural’ Forestry Plan FightsFires With Fire. Washington Post, 24 Sep. 2000

Bruce, J.P., Burton, I. and Egener, I.D.M. (1999).Disaster Mitigation and Preparedness in aChanging Climate. Ottawa, Minister of PublicWorks and Government Services

Brun, S.E., Etkin, D., Law, D.G., Wallace, L., andWhite, R. (1997). Coping with Natural Hazards inCanadahttp://www.utoronto.ca/env/nh/pt2ch2-3-2.htm[Geo-2-358]

CCFM (2000). National Forestry DatabaseProgram. Canadian Council of Forest Ministershttp://nfdp.ccfm.org/ [Geo-2-389]

CEQ (2000). Managing the Impact of Wildfires onCommunities and the Environment. A Report to thePresident In Response to the Wildfires of 2000.Council on Environmental Qualityhttp://clinton4.nara.gov/CEQ/firereport.pdf

Changnon, S.A. and Easterling, D.R. (2000). USPolicies Pertaining to Weather and ClimateExtremes. Science 289, 5487, 2053-5

CIFFC (2001). Canadian Interagency Forest FireCentre. Hectares by Yearhttp://www.ciffc.ca/graphs/hectares.html [Geo-2-359]

COTF (2000). Exploring the Environment:Yellowstone Fires. Wheeling Jesuit University/NASAClassroom of the Futurehttp://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/yellowstone/YFfires1.html [Geo-2-360]

Dalgish, A. (1998). The Mississippi Flooding of1993.http://www.owlnet.rice.edu/~micastio/ann3.html

Easterling, D.R., Meehl, G.A., Parmesan, C.,Changnon, S.A., Karl, T.R. and Mearns, L.O.(2000). Climate Extremes: Observations,Modelling, and Impacts. Science 289, 5487,2068-74

EC (1998a). Climate Trends and VariationsBulletin for Canada: Annual 1997 Temperatureand Precipitation in Historical Perspective.Environment Canada, Atmospheric EnvironmentServicehttp://www.msc–smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/annual97/ [Geo-2-361]

EC (1998b). Canada and Freshwater: Experienceand Practices. Ottawa, Environment Canada

EC (1999a). The Canada Country Study (CCS),Volume VIII, National Cross-Cutting Issues

Volume. Adaptation and Impacts Research Grouphttp://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/ccs/execsum8.htm[Geo-2-362]

EC (1999b). Sustaining Canada’s Forests: TimberHarvesting, National Environmental IndicatorSeries, SOE Bulletin No. 99-4. Ottawa,Environment Canada

EC (2000). Environment Canada. Floodshttp://www.ec.gc.ca/water/en/manage/floodgen/e_intro.htm [Geo-2-363]

EC (2001). Environment Canada. Tracking KeyEnvironmental Issueshttp://www.ec.gc.ca/tkei/main_e.cfm [Geo-2-364]

FEMA (1999). About FEMA: History of the FederalEmergency Management Agencyhttp://www.fema.gov/about/history.htm [Geo-2-365]

Flannigan, M.D., Stocks, B.J., and Wotton, B.M.(2000). Climate Change and Forest Fires. TheScience of the Total Environment, 262, 221-9

Francis, D. and Hengeveld, H. (1998). ExtremeWeather and Climate Change. Downsview,Ontario, Ministry of the Environmenthttp://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/saib/climate/Climatechange/ccd_9801_e.pdf [Geo-2-366]

Gorte, R.W. (1996). Congressional ResearchService Report for Congress: Forest Fires andForest Health. The Committee for the NationalInstitute for the Environmenthttp://cnie.org/NLE/CRSreports/Forests/for-23.cfm[Geo-2-367]

H. John Heinz III Center (2001). Designing aReport on the State of the Nation’s Ecosystem:Selected Measurements for Croplands, Forests,and Coasts and Oceans. The H. John Heinz IIICenter for Science, Economics and the Environmenthttp://www.us-ecosystems.org/forests/index.html[Geo-2-368]

IJC (2000). International Joint CommissionCautions that Efforts Must Remain Focused onProtecting Against Flood Damages. InternationalJoint Commissionhttp://www.ijc.org/news/redrelease3e.html [Geo-2-369]

Jardine, K. (1994). The Carbon Bomb: ClimateChange and the Fate of the Northern BorealForests. Greenpeace Internationalhttp://www.subtleenergies.com/ormus/boreal.htm[Geo-2-370]

Morrison, P.H., Karl, J.W., Swope, L., Harma, K.,Allen, T., Becwar, P. and Sabold, B. (2000).

Assessment of Summer 2000 Wildfires. PacificBiodiversity Institutehttp://www.pacificbio.org/pubs/wildfire2000.pdf[Geo-2-371]

Mutch, R.W. (1997). Use Of Fire As AManagement Tool On The National Forests:Statement of Robert W. Mutch Before theCommittee on Resources, United States House ofRepresentatives Oversight Hearing. Committee onResources, US House of Representativeshttp://resourcescommittee.house.gov/105cong/fullcomm/sep30.97/mutch.htm [Geo-2-372]

NIFC (2000). National Interagency Fire Centerhttp://www.nifc.gov/ [Geo-2-373]

NPS (2000). Wildland Fire. The National ParkService, Yellowstone National Parkhttp://www.nps.gov/yell/nature/fire/wildfire.htm[Geo-2-374]

O’Meara, M. (1997). The Risks of DisruptingClimate. World Watch 10, 6, 10-24

OCIPEP (2001). The Office of Critical InfrastructureProtection and Emergency Preparedness http://www.epc-pcc.gc.ca/whoweare/index_e.html[Geo-2-375]

Searchinger, T.D. and Tripp, J.T.B. (1993).Planning for Floods: Another Look at RisingWaters. Environmental Defense Fundhttp://www.edf.org/pubs/EDF–Letter/1993/Nov/m_floodplan.html

Trenberth, K.E. (1999). The Extreme WeatherEvents of 1997 and 1998. Consequences: Natureand Implications of Environmental Change 5 (1)http://www.gcrio.org/consequences/vol5no1/extreme.html [Geo-2-376]

Turner, C. (2001). Fighting Fires: Blazing a Trail.CBC Newshttp://cbc.ca/news/indepth/fightingfires/blazing.html[Geo-2-377]

USGCRP (2000). Climate Change Impacts on theUnited States: The Potential Consequences ofClimate Variability and Change. US Global ChangeResearch Programhttp://sedac.ciesin.org/NationalAssessment/ [Geo-2-378]

White House (2000). Vulnerabilities and PotentialConsequences. White House Initiative on GlobalClimate Changehttp://clinton4.nara.gov/Initiatives/Climate/vulnerabilities.html

References: Chapter 2, disasters, North America

Page 22: Dmm unit

Disasters: West Asia

West Asia is arid and vulnerable to drought, withrainfall scanty and variable (ACSAD 1997). Nearly 80per cent of the region is classified as semi-desert ordesert (AOAD 1995). Drought is the most importantnatural disaster in the region.

DroughtRainfall appears to be declining in some countriesbordering the Mediterranean Sea. Over the past 100years, precipitation has decreased by more than 5 percent over much of the land bordering theMediterranean with a few exceptions such as Libyaand Tunisia (IPCC 1996). The region suffered droughtsduring the 1930s, 1960s and the 1990s. In the wintersof 1991–92 and 1992–93, snowfall was rare in manyareas of the eastern Mediterranean (WMO and UNEP1994). Cycles of drought have become intense andmore frequent. The 1998–99 drought affected manycountries and Syria was the worst hit, suffering itsworst drought in 25 years (FAO 1999).

The most direct effects of the drought were cropfailures and a decline in cereal and livestockproduction. In Iraq, for example, cereal productiondeclined by 20 per cent compared to the previous yearand by 40 per cent compared to the average

production for the previous five years (FAO 1999). Areport by a FAO/WFP mission to Syria stated that alarge proportion of the nomadic herders were facing‘financial ruin’, with 4 700 households seriouslyvulnerable to food shortages and in urgent need offood assistance. Cereal production was also seriouslyaffected. Barley harvest was estimated to be only380 000 tonnes — less than half the 1998 total anddown 72 per cent from the previous five-year average.Local needs had to be satisfied through imports.Reduction in wheat production was less severe (28 percent below average) because 40 per cent of Syria’swheat fields are irrigated. Jordan was also adverselyaffected by the drought, which reduced the country’swheat and barley production in 1999 by 88 per cent(WFP 2001).

Drought results in economic, social andenvironmental problems. Economic hardships duringdrought intensify and can lead to social conflictbetween land users, especially in the Mashriqcountries and in Yemen where an agricultural economyprevails. Drought is also a major limiting factor to theregion’s economic development, affecting thedevelopment of agricultural and water schemes, andultimately food production.

Forage and fodder become scarce in rangelandsduring droughts. In addition, the decline in cereal

DISASTERS 2 9 1

The 1998–99drought in theMashriqcountries hadsevere effects onthe sheeppopulation andtheir owners —many herderswere forced tosell their flocks atcheap prices forwant of grazing

Source: UNEP,Topham Picturepoint

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production and the limited availability of crop residuesworsen the impact of drought on the sheep populationand consequently on human well-being. Loss of sheepand the high price of supplementary feed led to asignificant drop in farmers’ incomes and many familieswere forced to sell off their animals and other assetsat low prices (FAO 1999).

Land degradation, mostly in the form ofdesertification, is one of the region’s most seriousproblems. Although desertification is often attributedto poor land use practices, drought deepens the effectand extends the area prone to desertification toencompass areas normally not at risk. Decreases inplant cover due to drought may also increase erosionand lead to a nearly irreversible loss of productivepotential and subsequently desertification (LeHouérou 1993, Parton and others 1993).

Nations have responded to drought by improvingnational efforts to combat desertification and joininginternational ones with the same aim such as theUnited Nations Convention to Combat Desertification.Under the auspices of this international treaty, nationalaction programmes have been developed and a sub-regional action programme to combat desertificationand drought was adopted in 2000 (UNCCD 2001).

At the national level, actions and measures includemodification of agricultural and water policies andgiving priority to drought-affected areas.

Human-induced disastersHuman-induced disasters are mostly associated withthe oil industry. Intensive oil extraction in the regionresults in frequent oil discharges into the Gulf. It isestimated that about 10 per cent of the oil dischargedin the region enters the marine environment (Al-Harmi 1998). Accidental oil spills also occur, withthree such accidents being among the world’s 20largest: 300 million litres from the Nowruz Platformon 26 January 1991, 144 million litres from the tankerSea Star on 19 December 1972 and 118 million litresfrom storage tanks in Kuwait on 20 August 1981 (OilSpill Intelligence Report).

However, the biggest oil spill took place in January-February 1991, during the 1990-91 Gulf War, when9 500 million litres of oil were deliberately released inthe desert. An estimated 1 500 million litres of oil werereleased into Gulf waters and more than 600 Kuwaitioil wells were set on fire (Bennett 1995). This human-made disaster had enormous impacts on theenvironment and human health. The long-termenvironmental effects of the Gulf War may persist fordecades (UNEP 1991). Besides land and marinepollution, huge quantities of pollutants such as sulphurdioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide andparticulate matter were emitted by the burning oilwells. The high particulate matter levels have beenassociated with an allergic response in people. Hospitalstudies indicate that about 18 per cent of Kuwait’scivilian population suffer from some respiratorycomplaint, primarily asthma, compared to roughly 6 percent in the United States (US DoD 2000).

Armed conflictAlong with natural disasters, the region has beenplagued with wars. Since the beginning of the 20thcentury, the region has witnessed the 1948Arab–Israeli war, the 1967 Six-Day war, the 1973October war and the Israeli invasion of SouthernLebanon in 1982. In the 1980s and 1990s, the first andsecond Gulf wars caused major environmentalproblems. Environmental pollution was a majorimpact. Fires were set deliberately in forests, andwater resources were polluted and/or destroyed.Artillery fire destroyed land resources. Marineresources were polluted as well as the atmospherefrom oil well fires and soils were contaminated by oilspills during the second Gulf War.

Wars create refugees. In the aftermath of the 1948

2 9 2 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

A few of the 600oil wellsdeliberatelyignited during thesecond Gulf Warin January 1999

Source: UNEP,Sandro Pintras,Topham Picturepoint

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Arab–Israeli war, more than 750 000 Palestinians wereleft landless and homeless. A second wave ofapproximately 350 000 Palestinians and more than150 000 Syrians became refugees at the end of the Six-Day War. Towns and villages in Palestine and GolanHeights were depopulated and destroyed. Today, there

are about 3.8 million refugees in 59 camps registeredwith the United Nations Relief and Works Agency(UNRWA 2002). Palestinian refugees are scattered in anumber of countries, including Jordan, Lebanon andSyria. Most live in poor conditions, putting additionalstress on already limited natural resources.

DISASTERS 2 9 3

ACSAD (1997). Water Resources and theirUtilization in the Arab World. 2nd WaterResources Seminar, March 8–10, Kuwait

Al-Harmi, L. (1998). Sources of Oil Pollution inKuwait and Their Inputs in the MarineEnvironment. EES-125 Final Report. Kuwait,Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research

AOAD (1995). Study on Deterioration ofRangelands and Proposed Development Projects(in Arabic). Khartoum, Arab Organizaton forAgricultural Development

Bennett, M. (1995). The Gulf War. Database forUse in Schoolshttp://www.soton.ac.uk/~engenvir//environment/water/oil.gulf.war.html [Geo-1-002]

Cynthia, H.A., Gilbert, P.M., Al-Sarawi, M.A., Faraj,M., Behbehani, M. and Husain, M. (2001). Firstrecord of a fish-killing Gymnodinium sp. bloom inKuwait Bay, Arabian Sea: chronology and potentialcauses. Marine Ecology Progress Series 214, 15-23.

FAO (1999). Special Report: Drought CausesExtensive Crop Damage in the Near East RaisingConcerns for Food Supply Difficulties in Some Parts

http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/alertes/1999/SRNEA997.htm [Geo-2-379]

IPPC (1996). Climate Change 1995: The Scienceof Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group Ito the Second Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UnitedKingdom, and New York, United States

Le Houérou, A. N. (1993). Vegetation and land-usein the Mediterranean Basin by the year 2050: aprospective study. In Jeftic, L., Milliman, J.D. andSestini, G. (eds.). Climatic Change and theMediterranean. London, Edward Arnold

Oil Spill Intelligence Report (2002). Oil spillsinvolving more than 10 million gallonshttp://cutter.com/osir/biglist.htm [Geo-2-380]

Parton, W.J., Scurlock, J.M.O., Ojima, D.S., Gilmanov,T.G., Scholes, R.J., Schimel, D.S., Kirchner, T.,Menaut, J.-C., Seastedt, T., Moya, E.G., Kamnalrut, A.and Kinyamario, J.I. (1993). Observations andmodeling of biomass and soils organic matterdynamics for the grassland biome worldwide. GlobalGeochemical Cycles 7, 4, 785-805

UNCCD (2001). Sub-Regional Action Programme(SRAP) to Combat Desertification and Drought inWest Asiahttp://www.unccd.int/actionprogrammes/asia/subregional/westasia/westasia.php [Geo-2-381]

UNEP (1991). A Rapid Assessment of the Impactsof the Iraq-Kuwait Conflict on TerrestrialEcosystems: Part II - the State of Kuwait.Manama, Bahrain, UNEP Regional Office for WestAsia

UNRWA (2002). United Nations Relief and WorksAgency for Palestine Refugees in the Near Easthttp://www.un.org/unrwa/about/index.html [Geo-2-383]

US DoD (2000). Oil Well Fires EnvironmentalExposure Report. The Department of Defense. http://www.gulflink.osd.mil/owf_ii/ [Geo-2-382]

WFP (2001). Estimated Food Needs andShortfalls for WFP Operations and Projects.Rome, World Food Programme

WMO and UNEP (1994). The Global ClimateSystem Review. Climate System Monitoring June1991 — November 1993. Geneva, WorldMeteorological Organization

References: Chapter 2, disasters, West Asia

Increases in nutrient concentrations in the Gulf have often beenconcentrated in the Kuwait Bay and the area around the outfallof the Shatt-Al-Arab river, and they have been cited as thecause of a number of eutrophication incidents. A major red tideand an associated fish kill occurred in 1999. The mainconclusion of that incident was that unless pollution levelswere reduced drastically, eutrophication conditions wouldworsen, causing more fish kills.

The 1999 event was one of a series. In 1986, tonnes offish as well as other marine animals, including 527 dolphins,7 dugongs, 58 turtles and more than 10 000 cuttle fish, hadbeen found dead along the shores of the Gulf. During 1990and 1991, 137 sea turtles were found dead along the Omanicoast. In 1993, a fish kill was observed two months after thesinking of a Russian merchant vessel carrying chemicals.Similar phenomena were reported along the coasts of Bahrain,Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United ArabEmirates between 1993 and 1998.

Kuwait Bay has experienced a series of changes over theyears, including the release of both treated and untreatedsewage and oils and untreated wastes from sources connecteddirectly to the storm water network. Two commercial ports and

several marinas, three power stations, a commercial fish farmin the middle of the bay, and an artificial river in Iraq intowhich sewage and agriculture run-off from the newly drainedmarshes are released, exert pressure on the bay.

Another source of nutrients is wind-blown soil carried by thepredominant northwesterly winds, which has increased overthe past few years due to the shrinking marshlands in Iraq.The linkage between the marshes and the Gulf through theShatt Al-Arab and its tributaries has allowed fish to migrate. InAugust-September 2001, more than 3 000 tonnes of fish,predominantly mullet, died. The pathogen identified,Streptococcus iniae, could have originated from sewage orcontaminated fish-feed. The same species was reported inBahrain in 1999 when there was massive mortality inrabbitfish populations. The combined effects of elimination ofthe Iraqi marshes as a natural wastewater treatment systemand the continued input of organic matter from anthropogenicactivities coupled with arid conditions have created a recipe fordisaster, transforming the Gulf into a soup ready to provide aperfect media for bacterial and algal blooms.

Source: Cynthia and others 2001

Kuwait Bay: a soup for disaster

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Disasters: the Polar Regions

Natural disastersImpacts of natural hazards, combined with extremepolar climatic conditions (low temperatures, shortsummers, extensive snow and ice cover in winter),and vulnerable ecosystems and infrastructure caneasily result in disasters in the Arctic. For example,during the five-year period 1996–2001, there were twocatastrophic floods in the Lena River that exceeded allprevious records. In the winter of 2001, temperatureshit a record low, some rivers froze solid, and thereforetook longer to thaw, and blocks of ice clogged thenatural flow. In addition, in that year, the snowfall wasparticularly severe. The water levels in the centralpart of the Lena exceeded the normal average by 9metres or more. Economic losses and environmentaldevastation were severe (Kriner 2001a, b). Becauseclimate change is likely to increase precipitation in thecatchment areas of Arctic rivers (IPCC 2001a), theremay be a corresponding increase in the frequency andmagnitude of floods.

The temperature increase observed over theArctic land masses in recent years results inpermafrost thawing in many areas. In the developedareas of the Arctic, efforts will be needed to reducethe impacts of thawing on buildings and transportinfrastructure (IPCC 2001b). The permafrost zonecovers 58 per cent of the Russian Federation. Thezone border may move 300–400 km northwards by2100 (Interagency Commission 1998).

Another natural disaster affecting the Arcticecosystem is pest invasion, which can devastate aforested area and affect the related economicactivities. Pest outbreaks are a major problem in theforest-tundra zone. The spruce bark beetle(Dendroctonus rufipennis) has caused seriousdestruction and forest death in the spruce forests ofAlaska. In Scandinavia, autumn moths (Epirritaautumnata) cause massive defoliation of birch forestsat about 10-year intervals. These forests do notrecover for up to centuries because of the slowrecovery rate of vegetation in the Arctic (CAFF 2001).

Human-caused disastersWith the exception of Finland, all the countriesbordering the Arctic area have oil terminals, or majortransportation routes of oil or hazardous materials intheir Arctic areas. Other human activities include the

exploitation of petroleum and mineral resources by allcountries except Finland and Sweden. Iceland has ahazardous materials waste site, and the RussianFederation has several nuclear sites and radioactivewaste sites in its Arctic area. An environmental risksurvey of human activities in the Arctic, carried outunder the auspices of the Arctic Council, concludedthat the greatest threat from a release of a pollutantrequiring emergency response is the transportationand storage of oil. Nuclear sites, although assessed asless of a threat overall, could affect much larger areas(EPPR 1997).

Pipeline ruptures and leakages, such as in theUsinsk area of Russia in 1994 when 116 million litresof crude oil were spilled (Oil Spill Intelligence Report2002), and the Exxon Valdez tanker accident in Alaskain 1989 with almost 50 million litres of crude oilspilled (NOAA 2001), are examples of catastrophicenvironmental impacts in the region. Many smalleraccidents, such as uncontrolled oil gushers and theaccidental discharge of contaminated mud duringdrilling, also result in local environmental pollution(AMAP 1997).

Both past and current activities involvingradioactive materials in the Arctic create a highpotential risk of accidents, although there has been nolarge-scale radioactive pollution yet. For example,accidents such as the sinking of the Soviet nuclearsubmarine Komsomolets in 1989 and the Russiannuclear submarine Kursk in 2000, and the crash of aUS aircraft with nuclear weapons aboard near Thule inGreenland in 1968, did not result in the release ofradioactive substances to the environment.

The Soviet Union dumped high, intermediate andlow level radioactive waste in the Kara and BarentsSeas between 1959 and 1991 (see map opposite),including six nuclear submarine reactors and ashielding assembly from an icebreaker reactorcontaining spent fuel (AMAP 1997). Since then, theresearch and data collected have indicated that nosignificant amounts of radioactive materials havemigrated from the dumping, and only very localsamples show elevated radionuclide levels. The majorrisks may be over the long term as the containerscorrode.

Radioactive contamination from Europeanreprocessing plants in the 1970s and atmosphericweapons testing in the 1960s have contributed tocurrent low-level Arctic contamination (AMAP 1997,

2 9 4 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

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OTA 1995). There is limited data on how much orwhere radioactive materials have been dumped in theArctic, and any of these sites may be ‘a disasterwaiting to happen’ (AMAP 1997).

Governments, businesses and internationalorganizations are all taking action to increase disasterpreparedness in the region. Intergovernmentalcooperation is carried out on both a bilateral and amultilateral basis, especially via the Arctic Council.Two of the Arctic Council’s programmes —Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and Response(EPPR), and Protection of the Arctic MarineEnvironment (PAME) — have produced importantinformation and guidelines on environmental risks inthe Arctic. For example, EPPR developed the ArcticOffshore Oil and Gas Guidelines aimed at regulatoryagencies in 1997. A guideline on the transfer ofpetroleum products from ship to shore and ship to shiphas been produced by PAME (Arctic Council 2001).The IUCN and the Oil and Gas Producers Associationhave prepared guidelines for environmental protectionin the Arctic and sub-Arctic (IUCN and E&P Forum1993).

DISASTERS 2 9 5

Nuclear waste dumping sites: Arctic

Map showsdumping sites forsolid and liquidradioactivewastes in Arcticareas of theRussianFederation

Source: AMAP 1997

AMAP (1997). Arctic Pollution Issues: a State ofthe Arctic Environment Report. Oslo, ArcticMonitoring and Assessment Programme

Arctic Council (2001). Arctic Council Activitieshttp://www.arctic-council.org/ac_projects.asp [Geo-2-384]

CAFF (2001). Arctic Flora and Fauna: Status andConservation. Helsinki, Arctic Council Programmefor the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna

EPPR (1997). Environmental Risk Analysis ofArctic Activities. Risk Analysis Report No. 2. TheEmergency Prevention Preparedness and ResponseWorking Group of the Arctic Councilhttp://eppr.arctic-council.org/risk/riskcover.html[Geo-2-385]

Interagency Commission (1998). The SecondNational Communication to the UNFCCC. Moscow,Interagency Commission of the Russian Federationon Climate Change Problems

IPCC (2001a). Climate Change 2001: TheScientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group Ito the Third Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, UnitedStates, Cambridge University Press

IPCC (2001b). Climate Change 2001: Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution ofWorking Group II to the Third Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, UnitedStates, Cambridge University Press

IUCN with E&P Forum (1993). Oil and GasExploitation in Arctic and Subarctic OnshoreRegions. Gland, Switzerland, and Cambridge,United Kingdom, World Conservation Union withthe Oil Industry Exploration and Production Forum

Kriner, S. (2001a). Winter Chills Bring SpringFloods to Siberia. American Red Cross, 17 May2001http://www.redcross.org/news/in/flood/010517siberia.html [Geo-2-386]

Kriner, S. (2001b). Flood Disaster Averted Againin Siberian City. American Red Cross, 23 May2001http://www.redcross.org/news/in/flood/010523siberia.html [Geo-2-387]

NOAA (2001). The Exxon Valdez Oil Spill. Office ofResponse and Restoration, National Ocean Service,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationhttp://response.restoration.noaa.gov/spotlight/spotlight.html [Geo-2-388]

Oil Spill Intelligence Report (2002). Oil spillsinvolving more than 10 million gallonshttp://cutter.com/osir/biglist.htm [Geo-2-380]

OTA (1995). Nuclear Wastes in the Arctic: AnAnalysis of Arctic and Other Regional Impactsfrom Soviet Nuclear Contamination. WashingtonDC, US Office of Technology Assessment

References: Chapter 2, disasters, the Polar Regions

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2 9 6 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

The destruction of the Aral Sea ecosystem has beensudden and severe. Beginning in the 1960s,agricultural demands deprived this large CentralAsian salt lake of enough water to sustain itself, andit has shrunk rapidly. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, andother Central Asian states used this water to grow

cotton and other export crops, in the face of widespreadenvironmental consequences, including fisheries loss, water and soilcontamination, and dangerous levels of polluted airborne sediments.

The Aral Sea is one of the greatest environmentalcatastrophes ever recorded. Humans have made use of the watersof the Aral basin for thousands of years, borrowing from its twomajor rivers: the Amu Darya, which flows into the Aral Sea fromthe south; and the Syr Darya, which reaches the sea at its northend. The Kara Kum Canal opened in 1956, diverting largeamounts of water from the Amu Darya into the desert ofTurkmenistan, and millions of hectares of land came underirrigation after 1960. While the sea had been receiving about50 km3 of water per year in 1965, by the early 1980s this hadfallen to zero. As the Aral shrank, its salinity increased, and bythe early 1980s commercially useful fish had been eliminated,shutting down an industry that had employed 60 000.

The declining sea level lowered the water table in the region,destroying many oases near its shores. Over-irrigation causedsalt build-up in many agricultural areas. By the beginning of the1990s, the surface area of the Aral had shrunk by nearly half, andits volume was down by 75 per cent. Winds picked up sedimentslaced with salts and pesticides, with devastating healthconsequences for surrounding regions (see also box on page 280).

OUR CHANGING ENVIRONMENT: the Aral Sea, Central Asia

Photo above shows an abandoned fishing boat in what was once the Aral Sea. Satelliteimages below show how the sea shrank between 1973 and 1999

Landsat data: USGS/EROS Data CenterCompilation: UNEP GRID Sioux FallsPhoto: UNEP, Topham Picturepoint

1973 1986 1999

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The preceding sections of this chapter show that therehas been immense change in both human andenvironmental conditions over the past 30 years. In anunprecedented period of population increase, theenvironment has been heavily drawn upon to meet amultiplicity of human needs. In many areas, the stateof the environment is much more fragile and degradedthan it was in 1972. The result is that the world cannow be categorized by four major divides:

● The Environmental Divide — characterized by astable or improved environment in some regions,for example Europe and North America, and adegraded environment in the other regions, mostlythe developing countries;

● The Policy Divide — characterized by twodistinct dimensions involving policy developmentand implementation with some regions havingstrength in both and others still struggling in bothareas;

● The Vulnerability Gap — which is wideningwithin society, between countries and acrossregions with the disadvantaged more at risk toenvironmental change and disasters; and

● The Lifestyle Divide — partly a result ofgrowing poverty and of affluence. One side of thelifestyle divide is characterized by excesses ofconsumption by the minority one-fifth of the worldpopulation, which is responsible for close to 90 percent of total personal consumption; the other sideby extreme poverty where 1.2 billion live on lessthan US$1 per day.

The four gaps are a serious threat to sustainabledevelopment. The following paragraphs highlight someof the environmental challenges facing humanity todayand some of the successes that have been achieved inthe past three decades.

Environmental achievementsThe policies articulated in documents such as theStockholm Declaration and Programme of Action, theWorld Conservation Strategy, Our Common Future, theRio Declaration and Agenda 21, have driven the

environmental agenda in the period 1972-2002.Binding legal regimes — some from before 1972 —now form the body of international environmental law,providing the appropriate muscle necessary toencourage compliance. Along with the policies andlegal framework, the past three decades have alsoseen a proliferation of environmental institutionsacross public and private sectors, and civil society ingeneral. Ministries or departments of environment arenow common in all regions. Sustainable developmentand environmental standards have become part of thelingua franca of major corporations, with many nowmaking annual environmental reporting part of thecorporate agenda. Civil society has come of age,recording many successes at different levels — fromcommunity to the international level. Some of thesuccesses that have been achieved since 1972 includethe following:

● Addressing stratospheric ozone depletion is anotable victory for global environmentalgovernance. However, it needs continuingvigilance.

● Concern over levels of common air pollutants hasresulted in encouraging reductions in manycountries, achieved through specific policymeasures, including emissions and air qualitystandards, as well as technology-based regulationsand different market-based instruments.

● More holistic approaches to land management,such as integrated plant nutrition systems andintegrated pest management, have been introducedwith positive results for the health of agriculturalecosystems in some regions.

● Freshwater policies have begun to move awayfrom a riparian rights focus and towards exploringefficiency improvements and river basinmanagement. Integrated water resourcesmanagement is now widely accepted as a strategicpolicy initiative.

● A new theoretical understanding of the benefits ofecosystem services has emerged but, in practice,information and policy instruments to protectthese have been lacking or sporadic.

● There has been a recent evolution from ‘end-of-

CONCLUSIONS 2 9 7

Conclusions

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pipe’ approaches to goals for sustainability and amodest shift to a more integrated approach toenvironmental policies and management, focusingon the sustainability of ecosystems andwatersheds, for example, rather than on sustainingyields.

● It is now recognized that poverty reduction,economic development and environmental stabilityshould be mutual goals. This breaks with the oldthinking prevalent in the 1970s and 1980s whichregarded environmental protection and economicdevelopment as conflicting aims.

● Prosperity and an informed and active civil societyhave been key drivers of policies to addressvarious environmental problems that becameapparent early in the 30-year period in developednations. Ambient air quality and point-sourcewater pollution have been addressed satisfactorilyin many areas; recycling has become morecommon; wastewater treatment has improved;pulp-and-paper industry effluents have declinedand hazardous waste threats have been reduced.Protected areas have been increasingly set asidefor conservation and recreation.

● Successes in the developing world have beenmixed: there has been a growing democratizationand participation process positively underpinningenvironment-development in some regions, with agrowing civil society awareness of the debate.

● A natural ‘cluster’ of biodiversity policies isemerging, of which the CBD is the core regime,but which also includes a host of other treaties andinitiatives such as CITES, CMS and the RamsarConvention.

● Technological change has helped to relieve someenvironmental pressures: lower material intensityin production; a shift from materials and energysupply to the provision of services; a modest boostin renewable technology; and a significant clean-upin some regions in previously ‘dirty’ industries.

● In recent years, risk reduction has been placedhigher on political agendas, and responsemechanisms and early warning systems have beenstrengthened.

An overall observation is that many of the policiesmentioned in this chapter have either no clearlydefined and specific performance criteria or thecriteria are not readily related to environmental

performance. This is true of, for example, economicpolicies related to taxation, trade and investment.Although some of them have significant links toenvironmental issues (in some cases, they are keydrivers of environmental change), their built-inevaluation criteria are usually limited to economicperformance. This has made their evaluationparticularly challenging from an environmental andsustainable development perspective.

Environmental challengesDespite these achievements, a growing worldpopulation — to more than 6 000 million people (andstill climbing) — is exacerbating the demand onresources and services, and increasing the generationof wastes to meet many of these demands. Overall,policy measures have not been adequate to counteractthe pressures imposed by increasing poverty anduncontrolled consumption. Preceding Chapter 2sections show indisputable evidence of continuing andwidespread environmental degradation.

● Recent human impacts on the atmosphere havebeen enormous, with anthropogenic emissions aprime cause of environmental problems. Emissionsof almost all greenhouse gases continue to rise.

● Ground-level ozone, smog and fine particulateshave emerged as significant health risks,triggering or exacerbating respiratory and cardiacproblems, especially in vulnerable people such aschildren, the elderly and asthmatics, in developedand developing nations alike.

● Overexploitation of many of the surface waterresources and great aquifers upon which irrigatedagriculture and domestic supplies depend hasresulted in more and more countries facing waterstress or scarcity. About 1 200 million people stilllack access to clean drinking water and some 2 400million to sanitation services. The consequencesinclude the deaths of 3–5 million people annuallyfrom water-related diseases.

● The Earth’s biological diversity is under increasingthreat. The extinction rate of species is believed tobe accelerating. Habitat destruction and/ormodification are the main causes of biodiversityloss but invasive species are the second mostimportant pressure.

● There has been a sharp global trend towards

2 9 8 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

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increasingly intense exploitation and depletion ofwild fish stocks. Numerous fisheries havecollapsed and others are threatened withoverexploitation.

● Land degradation continues to worsen, particularlyin developing countries where the poor are forcedonto marginal lands with fragile ecosystems and inareas where land is increasingly exploited to meetfood and agricultural needs without adequateeconomic and political support to adopt appropriateagricultural practices.

● Many remaining forest ecosystems have beendegraded and fragmented. Since 1972, extensiveforest monocultures have been established in thedeveloping world but these do not replace theecological complexity of natural forests.

● Crop and livestock production has contributed tothe large increase in reactive nitrogen in the globalbiosphere, contributing to the acidification andeutrophication of ecosystems.

● With almost half of the world’s population living inless-developed countries, urban areas and mega-cities, infrastructure and municipal services areinadequate to accommodate millions of the urbanpoor. Urban air pollution and deteriorating waterquality are having major health, economic andsocial impacts.

● An increase in the frequency and intensity ofnatural disasters over the past 30 years has putmore people at greater risk, with the greatestburden falling on the poorest communities.

Regional challengesAt the regional level, the major environmental issuesinclude climate change, land and soil degradation,forest degradation and deforestation, freshwater stressand scarcity as well as quality/pollution, degradationand pollution of coastal and marine areas, loss ofhabitats and species, growth of unplanned settlementsand mounting solid waste, and increasing droughts andfloods. Many of the regions face similar environmentalchallenges, though the magnitude and extent of theproblems varies.

AfricaIn Africa, the key environmental issues include landdegradation, deforestation, habitat degradation, waterstress and scarcity, coastal area erosion and

degradation, floods and droughts, and armed conflict.These and other problems have contributed toenvironmental change that exacerbated under-development, poverty and food insecurity in theregion. They have also limited the effectiveness ofvarious response measures such as the Lagos Plan ofAction and other environmental policies, which havebeen adopted by the region over the past 30 years.Tackling the region’s environmental problems is nownot just an option but is critical to achievingsustainable development, without which poverty willcontinue to worsen, contributing to even moreoverexploitation of the environment.

Asia and the PacificThe world’s largest region in terms of land area andalso human population has an eclectic portfolio ofenvironmental challenges, reflecting the diversity ofits sub-regions. Some of the key environmental issuesfacing the region include land and forest degradation,habitat loss, water scarcity and pollution, greenhousegas emissions and climate change, waste management,and natural disasters such as floods, droughts andearthquakes. What emerges from the assessment inprevious sections is that some parts of the region areunder severe stress, placing livelihood options formillions of people at risk. Other parts of the region,for example Japan, New Zealand and Australia, aresufficiently developed to cope with inevitableenvironmental changes caused by both humanactivities and natural phenomena.

EuropeIn Europe, many of the key environmental issues aresimilar to those common in Africa, and Asia and thePacific. These include forest degradation, waterquantity and quality, coastal erosion and greenhousegas emissions. Other, more specific issues analysedinclude soil degradation, sealing and contamination,and genetically modified organisms. Europe isgenerally one of the regions that is better placed todeal with its environmental challenges because of itseconomic development — and there are wellestablished legal and institutional frameworks at bothnational and regional levels. Despite its advantages,however, the region cannot tackle globalenvironmental issues alone and should continue toplay a key role, particularly in the area of climatechange.

CONCLUSIONS 2 9 9

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3 0 0 STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY RETROSPECTIVE: 1972–2002

Latin America and the CaribbeanThe region faces many of the same environmentalproblems as Africa, and Asia and the Pacific.Additional issues include land tenure, overexploitationof fisheries and disasters, including hurricanes,earthquakes and spills of hazardous substances. Suchproblems will continue to exert heavy tolls on humanlife and the environment, setting back any effortstowards sustainable development. The risk is thatmillions of people in the region will continue to bemarginalized, undermining efforts to improve socio-economic conditions and effectively manage theenvironment for current and future generations.Without more effective policy responses, the currenttrend of worsening environmental conditions is likelyto continue, contributing to increased humanvulnerability to environmental change.

North AmericaNorth America, the engine of globalization, has keyenvironmental issues that include pesticide use,management of old growth forests, bio-invasion andquality of the Great Lakes. Despite its well developedinstitutional and legal framework, and successfulenforcement of environmental laws, the region willcontinue to face a number of challenges, including theeffective management of the commons. Its leadershiprole in international environmental management isimportant and this should be guided by the nowwidely accepted principle of common butdifferentiated responsibilities. The participation ofgovernments, NGOs and civil society at national,regional and international levels is critical to progressin meeting Agenda 21 and Millennium Declarationgoals and others set by subsequent fora such as theWorld Summit on Sustainable Development. Manyregions will continue to look to North America forassistance in terms of capacity building anddevelopment aid.

West AsiaPolicy conflicts, for example those related to watermanagement, and food production and security, havebeen shown to undermine efforts to achievesustainable development. Greater synergy is criticaland strategic policy development and implementationshould include different stakeholders to avoid overlapsand competition which undermine effectiveness. Theregion has identified integrated water resourcesmanagement as one of the key policy initiativesneeded to improve management of its limited waterresources. Countries in the region will also continueto grapple with the problems of drought anddesertification, both of which place heavy limitationson environment and development.

Polar RegionsSome of the diagnosed environmental impacts on thepolar regions are also clear symptoms of the excessesof human activity across the globe. The ozone-depleting substances used by humankind havemanifested themselves in these regions with thediscovery of the ozone hole some two decades ago.Greenhouse gas emissions are another example ofhow ‘local’ environmental problems may end up beingglobal. The polar regions will continue to suffer theimpacts of problems generated elsewhere. However,continued cooperation across various fronts at both tthe regional and global levels should help addresssome of the existing problems and pinpoint emergingones.