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Early Warning Systemfor management of Coffee Leaf Rust
The problem: Coffee Leaf Rust in Jamaica
• CLR is caused by the fungus Hemieleia vastrix which infects coffee leaves and produce millions of spores.
• High levels of infection can kill the leaf
which falls off the plant reducing the amount of food available for coffee berries to develop.
• Defoliation of coffee plants caused by the CLR fungus reduces coffee yields.
Effects of CLR in Jamaica
• Jamaican Coffee Industry lost US$5 million in revenue to CLR disease from the 2012-2013 crop resulting in 30% of farm labour force being laid off.
• CLR outbreaks are highly dependent on climatic factors, health of coffee plant and crop phenology.
• CLR disease is also influenced by socio-economic factors which influence farmers’ decision to take preventative actions.
THE DISEASE TRIANGLE & PYRAMID
For a fourth factor such as humans, vectors and time
Source: Francl L. J. (2001). Plant Health Instructor.
Plant disease caused by a biotic agent absolutely requires the interaction of a susceptible host, a virulent pathogen, and an environment favorable for disease development. Disease is prevented by elimination of any one of these three components.
Spores deposited
Movement Germination
Spores germinated
Colonies established
Penetrationin the tissue
Spores disseminated
Dissemination
Spores produced
The Rust Life Cycle & some of the most important factors affecting it (Avelino et al., 2004)
Rain
Wind
Fruit load
Fruit load
Soil humidity
Soil humidity
Lesions
Colonization of tissue
Sporulation
Leafarea
Temperature
Temperature
Temperature16-18° C
Moisture on leaf
Moisture on leafSunlight
Parasitism Complete resistance
Complete resistance
Management of CLR in Jamaica Arabica typica is most preferred variety in Jamaica for its cup quality However, A. typica is susceptible to CLR Coffee rust must be managed as a continuous epidemic on a perennial
crop, Any factor that can reduce sporulation, spore dispersal, or infection,
even a small amount, can mitigate the epidemic. Good cultural management is paramount, healthy plants are more
tolerant to rust but there are no simple rules to follow. The varieties grown, the character of the soils, the amount and
distribution of rainfall, and numerous other factors all interact to dictate what is required to manage rust.
Climate Products Towards the Management of CLR in Jamaica
1. Bush Fire Index (KBDI)
2. Improved Rainfall Climatologies
3. Improved Extreme Rainfall Diagnostics / Forecasting
4. Improved Seasonal Rainfall Prediction
• All of the above result from feedback from focus study groups and institutional stakeholders
2. Improved Rainfall Climatologies
15 station 10-year continuous observations (no missing days) 55 stations represented in 10 year record, but with scattered missing days
Weather station locations used in analysis
Interpolated maps
Modeled high resolution gridded map based on the 55-stations AND elevation.• Custom tailored: contours, colors, regions, etc…
3. Improved Extreme Rainfall Diagnostics / Forecasting
May 25, 2004
June 9, 2002
Hurricane Sandy backward trajectory
4. Improved Seasonal Rainfall Prediction
tradewinds
Sea temp gradients
Integrate new regional predictors based on weather-scale diagnostics
QUESTIONS?