Consuming the planet: reasons to be hopeful

Adjunct Prof Colin D Butler Health Research Institute, University of Canberra

National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, Australian National University

College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide

BODHI, BODHI Australia @ColinDavdButler

Australasian Society of Lifestyle Medicine

conferenceManly, NSW, September 2017

Propositions:

Evolutionary forces have rewarded humans that are collectively ingenious but also aggressive, not only towards the planet, but to other people, usually in groups.

The same evolutionary forces have generated and rewarded co-operation, on increasing scales.

The challenge for civilisation is to reach a threshold of global co-operation before our options run out and triage strategies lead to a “fortress world” in which human well-being is scarce.

The environmentalist’s “paradox”

Limits to growth and “peak health”

Planetary boundaries, climate change and health

Solutions

Pioneers of ecological economics and planetary health

A social vaccine, technology, lifestyle change, consciousness

Butler, C. D. (2017). "Limits to growth, planetary boundaries, and planetary health " Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 25: 59-65. free link til 1/11/17 : https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1VifV6gsyPQHK5

Raudsepp-Hearne C et al, BioScience 2010

animals – aquifers – ecosystems - forests – fossil fuels – freshwater –habitat – human habitat - phosphate – pollution sinks – rare earths –soil

Artist unidentified

feasting on the planet .. so far, so good..

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https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/gallery/2017/aug/14/how-the-wealthy-live-dubai-rich-set-in-pictures-nick-hannes-bread-circuses#img-5

August 2017http://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2017/07/05/WATCH-Truck-MELTS-into-road-as-Kuwait-swelters-in-extreme-heat.html

Kuwait registers record high temperatureJuly 23, 2016

http://www.timeskuwait.com/Times_Kuwait-registers-record-high-temperature

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global population: 0-2017

Limits to Growth (1972): 3.9 bn

Planetary Boundaries (2009): 6.9 bn

Data: Durand, UN, Manning

“checks”

Life expectancy also rising, now >70 years

Limits to growth and “peak health”

Planetary boundaries

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Modelled world economy and environment

• Many scenarios modelled from 1900 to 2100

• Most lead to “overshoot and collapse”

Widely believed to forecast resource scarcity and collapse by year 2000

• leading to false claims that it was wrong

The Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth (LTG) (Meadows et al)

Best selling environmental book of 1970s

Turner, G. M. (2008). A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change 18: 397– 411.Brijnath, B., McMichael, A. J. and Butler, C.D. (2012). Rio+20: Don’t forget health in sustainability talks. Nature 486: 191.

Courtesy Graham Turner

Peak health?

Turner, G. M. (2008). A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change 18: 397– 411.Brijnath, B., McMichael, A. J. and Butler, C.D. (2012). Rio+20: Don’t forget health in sustainability talks. Nature 486: 191.

Courtesy Graham Turner

Limits to Growth

Cheap energyPollution sinks

Crop yield increaseBiosphere integrity

ComplexityTolerance & compassion

}}}

all limited

Tainter, J. A. (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

From forecasting and models (1970s) to abundant data and

evidence .. not sufficiently acted on by policy makers, under-

appreciated within academia

1. Persistently high energy price

2. Stagnant economic “growth”

3. Flattened “genuine progress”

4. Return of famines

5. Increasing civil wars

6. “Health for all” a dream

7. Retreat of civilization and strengthening “fortress world”

Butler, Intl Soc Env Epidem, 2013

"Our proposed framework builds on and extends approaches based on limits-to-growth (Meadows et al. 1972, 2004)”

Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. et al, (2009). Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2).

Limits to Growth not cited in their better known papers:

Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. et al (2009). A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461: 472-475.

Steffen, W., K. Richardson, et al (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science347(6223) 1259855.

Butler, C. D. (2017). "Limits to growth, planetary boundaries, and planetary health " Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 25:59-65. free link til 1/11/17 :

https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1VifV6gsyPQHK5

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Data: ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt, other

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Burden of

Disease

Year widely accepted

now 2050?

PRIMARY (e.g. heat,

injury)

SECONDARY (e.g. vector-

borne diseases, air

pollution, allergies)

TERTIARY: “systemic

multiplier”) famine,

conflict, large-scale

migration, economic

collapse

Butler, 2014

Primary

Secondary

Old location

Hurricane Harvey related to climate change because:

1. Sea level rise2. Warmer sea, at depth2. Warmer atmosphere, more rain3. Stalled storm – may be related to wavier Jetstream, Arctic ice melt(AFP Photo/Thomas B. Shea)h

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Extensive US droughts (2012-2013, Ca

2013-14)

– dryness and heat

Data: FAOhttp://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

A complex “tertiary” “eco-social” effect

Drought – probably climate change related

High population growth (though falling), aquifer depletion and dammed rivers in Turkey

Loss of subsidies price shocks

Outside factors

Limited compassion and tolerance

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-sWEupgTFIg4/WRx1BugbLqI/AAAAAAAAlRk/ugeNsz3VMmoPuOVJvJ76rYxkqsRQFzR_QCJoC/w2560-h1700/IMG_2017-01-31-114049.jpg .....انه ابيت الحزن ساكن من سنين الن بيت الفرح أيجاره غالي

SYRIA

WarTrauma, mental and physical

MigrationLoss of infrastructure, education and public health capacity also harms short and long-

term health

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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-sWEupgTFIg4/WRx1BugbLqI/AAAAAAAAlRk/ugeNsz3VMmoPuOVJvJ76rYxkqsRQFzR_QCJoC/w2560-h1700/IMG_2017-01-31-114049.jpg انه ابيت الحزن ساكن من سنين الن بيت

.....الفرح أيجاره غالي

“The expense may be considerable, but the

cost of doing nothing is incalculable”

Health in the Greenhouse

Editorial (Lancet, 1989)

Planetary boundaries

silent on social consequences, including

conflict

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Too soon to say?

Massive increase in individual killing power

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Too soon to say?

Massive increase in individual killing power

Violence against

is out of control

Clown fish vivid against

bleached coral, 2016http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-

oz/2016/apr/21/mourning-loomis-reef-the-heart-of-the-great-

barrier-reefs-coral-bleaching-disaster

The Tragic Tale of a Pangolin, the World’s Most Trafficked Animal http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/short-film-showcase/the-tragic-tale-of-a-pangolin-the-worlds-most-trafficked-animal

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Climate change will 'lead to battles for food', says head of World Bank

(April 2014)

(Dr) Jim Yong Kim urges campaigners and scientists to work together to form a

coherent plan in the fight against climate change

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/03/climate-change-battle-food-head-world-bank

The far-sighted amongst you are anticipating broader global impacts

on property, migration and political stability, as well as food

and water security. …

Mark Carney, 2015

(Governor of the

Bank of England)

Carney M. Breaking the tragedy of the horizon – climate change and financial stability.

http://wwwbankofenglandcouk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/844aspx

Double standards The power of corporations

who shape what we think and are told

“We have 50% of the world’s wealth, but only 6.3%

of its population... we cannot fail to be the object of

envy and resentment. Our real task is to devise a

pattern of relationships which will permit us to

maintain this position of disparity without positive

detriment to our national security...”

Kennan, 1948

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https://geddry.com/2016/03/29/turning-point-climate-fight-ags-unite-target-exxon-crimes/

“Exxon Mobil's response to climate change

is consummate arrogance”

Bill McKibben, 2014

Unprecedented wildfires are burning in the American west.

What does big oil have to say about climate change?

35

a social

vaccine

technology

a role for

health

workers

Am I really hopeful?

Solutions

Kenneth Boulding (1910-93)

The Economics of Spaceship Earth

“the only person who believes in

perpetual economic growth is either a

madman or an economist”

UN Human Rights Declaration; Eleanor Roosevelt, 1947

After WWII: hope humanity gained maturity from its then recent, immense suffering

Also Doc Evatt

39From Mary Glendon: “A

World Made New”

US President Harry S. Truman

inaugural address 1949

continue unfaltering support to the UN

we must embark on a bold new program for making the benefits of our scientific advances and industrial progress available for the improvement and growth of underdeveloped areas

Materialism: necessary for well-being, not sufficient. Connection with other people and with nature. Excess materialism harms planet, also ourselves; consider Ebenezer Scrooge

"Even the blind men’s dogs appeared to know him; .. when they saw (Scrooge) coming .. would tug their owners into doorways and up courts; .. wag their tails as though they said, “No eye at all is better than an evil eye, dark master!”Scooge and Marley's ghost,

Illustration: John Leech, 1843

ToxicityPlacebo

Vaccine spectrumsocial vaccine spectrum

Despair

Sufficient bad news to stimulate action

Sufficient good news to stimulate action

The accelerating energy transition

Floating solar farm, China

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/06/09/17/4143879B00000578-4589114-The_floating_plant_was_built_on_top_of_a_lake_where_water_floode-a-63_1497024122044.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIkaJ0ZXAAEe89H.jpg:large

from fossil fuels, industry

Jackson et al, Nature Climate

Change, 2016

CO2 emissions (GtCO22yr-1)

Jackson et al, Nature Climate

Change, 2016

but not from fossil fuels, industry; meat and dairy

CO2 emissions (GtCO22yr-1)

Towards a solution: consciousness

and behaviour

Ditch the car and lose half a stone – The Telegraph, 2014http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/11042821/Ditch-the-car-and-lose-half-a-stone-research-shows-public-transport-linked-to-lower-BMI.html

http://www.thegreynomads.com.au/outback-towns-terrorised-by-plague-of-kangaroos/

Eroding the social license

Maules Creek coal mine, NSW Australia 2014https://leard.frontlineaction.org/ipcc-contributor-participates-in-blockade/

Theodore Parker, a 19th century abolitionist who inspired Martin Luther King

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/11/15/arc-of-universe/

“the ARC of the MoRAl univeRse is long, but it bends towARds justiCe”