Sandeep Kumar Malyan

Roll No.-10123

Chairperson:- Dr. Arti Bhatia

Seminar committee:- Dr. Bidisha Chakravarti Dr. Namita Das Saha

Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture IARI , New Delhi

Outline

Introduction Climate changeCauses of climate changeEvidences of climate change Impacts of climate changeCase studyConclusion

Introduction Climate changeCauses of climate changeEvidences of climate change Impacts of climate changeCase studyConclusion

First of al l, you should know that weather and climate

are not the same thing.

WEATHER IS:• Short term• Limited area• Can change

rapidly• Difficult to predict

WEATHER :is casual remarks about the atmospheric conditions of a certain place at a certain time.

CLIMATE IS:

• Long term• Wide area • Seasonal

changes• Measured

over long spans of time

Climate changeClimate change refers to a

change in the state of the climate

May be causes by natural or external forcing

According to UNFCCC, is define as “ A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable to time periods”

Source:- ESRL Global Monitoring Division [www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/]

Evidence of Climate Change comes from

many different sources

Average change in earth temp surface from 1951-1980 is 0.03oC and from 1985-2005 is 0.35oC

Average change in earth temp surface from 1951-1980 is 0.03oC and from 1985-2005 is 0.35oC

Evidences of climate change Evidences of climate change

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

100 0.074±0.018

50 0.128±0.026

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

Period Rate

Years °/decade

Source: IPCC 2007

Rise in sea-level from: present and futureRise in sea-level from: present and future

LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY

SPCIES MIGRATIONSSEA LEVEL RISE

AGRICULTURE

HUMAN HEALTH

FREQUENT EXTREME WEATHER FREQUENT NATURAL CALAMITIES

Rate of different Species Migration

Source: IPCC 2014

Climate change effect on population size on different rainforest birds species of Australia if no migration

Climate change effect on population size on different rainforest birds species of Australia if no migration

Sources: Shoo et al., 2005Sources: Shoo et al., 2005

Main threats to migratory bird speciesMain threats to migratory bird species

Sources: Shoo et al., 2005Sources: Shoo et al., 2005

Source: Carson et al., 2014

Different Dimensions of Migration Induced Different Dimensions of Migration Induced

CASE STUDY 1CASE STUDY 1

This case study was conducted in Japan to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on species migration using 25 coniferous

trees species.

This case study was conducted in Japan to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on species migration using 25 coniferous

trees species.

How study was conductedThey compiled species and climatic data from

Phytosociological Releve Database and Japan Metrological Agency respectively(from 1953-1982)

On the basis of date they found that plant vegetation ranges are control by four bioclimatic parameters: minimum temperature of coldest month, summer precipitation (May-September) winter precipitation (December-March) and warmth index.

They use: Regional Climate Model (RCM) developed by the Meteorological Research Institute for projection

They compiled species and climatic data from Phytosociological Releve Database and Japan Metrological Agency respectively(from 1953-1982)

On the basis of date they found that plant vegetation ranges are control by four bioclimatic parameters: minimum temperature of coldest month, summer precipitation (May-September) winter precipitation (December-March) and warmth index.

They use: Regional Climate Model (RCM) developed by the Meteorological Research Institute for projection

Map of Study area

Different coniferous species selected in study Different coniferous species selected in study

Change in Vertical ranges(Elevation) in different species

Change in Vertical ranges(Elevation) in different species

Future projection for 2081-2100

Main finding

• RCM model future projections shows that all coniferous tree species shifting upwards

• The projection also show latitudinal shifts varied from 365 km southward to 320 km northward

• Mean average shift is 293 m in elevation

Main finding cont…

Case Study 2Case Study 2

Study sitesThree apple growing districts of Himachal PradeshKullu : 1200-2500m above msl (annual mean temp

increases by 1.1 oC from 1995-2005 )Shimla:2200-3250 above msl (annual mean temp increases by 1.8 oC from 1995-2005 )Lahaul-spitti: 3550-5485 above msl (annual mean temp increases by 0.6 oC from 1995-2005 )

Study sitesThree apple growing districts of Himachal PradeshKullu : 1200-2500m above msl (annual mean temp

increases by 1.1 oC from 1995-2005 )Shimla:2200-3250 above msl (annual mean temp increases by 1.8 oC from 1995-2005 )Lahaul-spitti: 3550-5485 above msl (annual mean temp increases by 0.6 oC from 1995-2005 )

Main FindingMain Finding

Apple cultivation is shifting towards higher altitude in Himachal Pradesh because of temperature is increasing and snowfall is

decreeing in lower altitude

Apple cultivation is shifting towards higher altitude in Himachal Pradesh because of temperature is increasing and snowfall is

decreeing in lower altitude

CASE STUDYCASE STUDY

Distribution: Arctic Russia and Siberia to East and Western Asia

IUCN Classification: Critically endangered

Population estimate: 3,200

The objective of this study was predict impact of climate on Siberian crane migration This study was conducted by Zoological Society of London (ZSL) under the UNEP Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) and publishes report in 2010

The objective of this study was predict impact of climate on Siberian crane migration This study was conducted by Zoological Society of London (ZSL) under the UNEP Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) and publishes report in 2010

Breeding place: Arctic Russia and Western SiberiaThere are two populations of Cranes, one which

follows the East Asia Flyway, whilst the other follows the West/Central Flyway

For nesting, feeding, and roosting, the Siberian crane uses good visibility, with only shallow wetlands

Permafrost will be recede due to climate change, which directly effect the breeding place of Siberian Crane

Map of Migratory route and area for Siberian Cranes Map of Migratory route and area for Siberian Cranes

Use mutli-model datasets(MMDs) and projected for 2001-2100 for A1B scenario and by this future temperature predictions for the Eastern Asia region up to 2100 is done

The multi-model data set for the A1B emissions scenario, shows a median warming of 3.3°C by the end of this century

The East Asia region is expected to see a 3.0°C rise in the summer and 3.6°C rise in the winter.

The majority of this warming occurring in the winter

How study was conducted

Main finding

The study predict 70% of the northern tundra and southern taiga will be lost between 100 and 200 years time, in the shorter‐term it is also very likely that Siberian Cranes will be adversely affected by climate‐related breeding habitat loss , so in such condition they have to moves towards poles

The study predict 70% of the northern tundra and southern taiga will be lost between 100 and 200 years time, in the shorter‐term it is also very likely that Siberian Cranes will be adversely affected by climate‐related breeding habitat loss , so in such condition they have to moves towards poles

CASE STUDY

Bangladesh is one the worst effected country by climate change in the world.

According to ranking of International Strategies for Disaster Reduction in term of human exposure:

1st in Flood 3rd in Tsunami 6th in Cyclone

Bangladesh is one the worst effected country by climate change in the world.

According to ranking of International Strategies for Disaster Reduction in term of human exposure:

1st in Flood 3rd in Tsunami 6th in Cyclone

The case study was conducted by Tahera Aktar from Environment Unit of Unnayan Onneshan, a multidisciplinary Policy research Centre, Dhakha Bangladesh to evaluate the potential impact of climate change Environmental refugees

The case study was conducted by Tahera Aktar from Environment Unit of Unnayan Onneshan, a multidisciplinary Policy research Centre, Dhakha Bangladesh to evaluate the potential impact of climate change Environmental refugees

Bangladesh is about 80% flatlands, and 20% land of the land is 1 meter or less above sea level.

It is a critical zone in terms of frequent coastal floods, cyclones and tidal surges as shown in map

Bangladesh is about 80% flatlands, and 20% land of the land is 1 meter or less above sea level.

It is a critical zone in terms of frequent coastal floods, cyclones and tidal surges as shown in map

Route map of Bangladeshi Environmental refugees

Route map of Bangladeshi Environmental refugees

Total displaced by all events(flood, drought and cyclone)

Total displaced flood only

Rate of increases over the year is about 6% on average of total pollution And at this rate by 2020 environmental migration will account about 42 % of total

population

Rate of increases over the year is about 6% on average of total pollution And at this rate by 2020 environmental migration will account about 42 % of total

population

Main findingMain findingStudy reveal that on average 2% (3 million) in cyclone,

25% (39 million) in flood, 0.1% (50,000)in river bank erosion and 3% (5 million) in drought respectively are displaced over the years

Flood is the biggest disaster, displacing one‐fourth of the total population in Bangladesh

Study also reported that, Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. The growth in environmental displacement is found to be 42% of the total populations in 2020

Study reveal that on average 2% (3 million) in cyclone, 25% (39 million) in flood, 0.1% (50,000)in river bank erosion and 3% (5 million) in drought respectively are displaced over the years

Flood is the biggest disaster, displacing one‐fourth of the total population in Bangladesh

Study also reported that, Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. The growth in environmental displacement is found to be 42% of the total populations in 2020

Conclusion Climate change result in many extreme weather condition

and natural disaster so it biggest challenge in the 21st century for policymaker

Climate change is effected both floral and fauna on this earth

As climate change result in sea level rise it is biggest threat for human population as population density is more on costal area as compare to inland population

Till now maximum development is done on the cost of environment but in future to mitigate climate change we should go for sustainable development

Thank You