PowerPoint Presentation

Guy DaunceyOctober 2016

CLIMATE SOLUTIONS

ClimaCon 2016, OttawaCanada

This is a short version of part of my larger presentation: www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey/climate-action-now-2016

www.earthfuture.com

The Paris Climate AgreementGreat CollapseGreat Transition

Fossil Fuels65%

Forests 11%

Methane 16%

N2O 6%

Industrial meat & dairy 15%

IPCC 2014Global Emissions

Canadas EmissionsOil & GasTransportBuildingsElectricityIndustryAgricultureOther

Provincial Emissions, 2014

AlbertaOntarioQuebecSaskBC

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action ClustersStrong climate leadership, vision, engagement, education and adaptation

Vision

Globally a Huge Way To Go

Vision

CITY OF VICTORIAjust voted to go100% RENEWABLEVision

Vision

Oslo voted to slash emissions 95% by 2030

Vision

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action ClustersStrong climate leadership, vision, engagement, education and adaptation

IndividualNGOMunicipalBusinessCollegeOrganizationProvinceCanadaWho can act on this solution?

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters2. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve 100% renewable energy for electricity

100% Renewable ElectricityPhase out all coal-fired power by 2025Phase out all gas-fired power by 2030Supportive policies for solar, wind & renewablesPolicy & finance supports for geothermal powerR & D investment in grid, DSM, energy storage

100% Renewable Electricity

Regulatory policiesFiscal Incentives and Public Financing

Farewell and Thank You, Fossil FuelsWelcome, Solar Age!

Price of Solar Moduleper Watt

1977: $77

1997: $7

2013: $0.7

Renewable Electricity Supply330 TWh/year Needed for 100%:an additional 420 TWh/yearCanadas Electrical Demand2014: 511 TWh2040: 750 TWhAssumes transition to 100% renewables by 2040

100% Renewable ElectricityPhase out all coal-fired power by 2025Phase out all gas-fired power by 2030Feed-in tariffs for solar, wind & renewablesPolicy & finance supports for geothermal powerR & D investment in energy storage

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters3. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve a transition to sustainable transportation

100% Renewable Energy TransportationActive support for pedestrian citiesMajor investment in safe, separated cyclingMajor investment in transit, LRTZero emissions for all cars/light trucks by 2025/30Solar electrification of railwaysR&D Investment in trucking, shipping, flying

Safe Separated Bike-Lanes

All buses in Barcelona will be electric by 2020. Self-financing over 12 years

Electric bus in Victoria, BC

Australian-Chinese Brighsun Bus500 km on one charge with full load

Real-time electronic bus stops

Car sharing - Car2Go118,000 members in Vancouver

Ambitious targets and incentives for EV uptake and charging network

1990

1990

1990

1990

1990

1990

1990

199025% of new sales

1990

Almost 400,000 advance orders placed for new US $35,000 Tesla Model 3.320 kilometres range

The falling price of EV batteries

October 2016

April 2016: Hollands Lower House voted to end purchase of gas/diesel cars by 2025

I M A G I N EAn Electric Vehicles Climate Solutions Treaty40 nations agree toA Zero Emissions Standard All new cars by 2030All light trucks by 2032

Swiss E-Force 18 tonne electric truck300 km range80110 kWh per 100 km at highway speed

Future railwayselectric, 100% renewable energy

Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com Railway Electrification in Canada50,000 kilometres14,000 jobs a year over 25 years

Norways Electric Ferry ZeroCat5.7 km route, 20 minute round tripRange will increase as batteries improve

Most air pollution gone

Long-Distance Trucking: nothing ready yet

Long-Distance Shipping : nothing ready yet

Flying: nothing ready yet

100% Renewable Energy TransportationActive support for pedestrian citiesMajor investment in safe, separated cyclingMajor investment in transit, LRTZero emissions for all cars/light trucks by 2025/30Solar electrification of railwaysR&D Investment in trucking, shipping, flying

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters4. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve a transition to sustainable buildings

100% renewable energy buildingsAll new buildings Passive House design by 2021Major home energy retrofit programCondos energy retrofit programCommercial & Industrial energy retrofit programsUrban Centres District Heat programs

Passive Houses, Victoria90% reduced heat loss

Passive House, Victoria, B.C. 90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2, 4.4% more costwww.bernhardtpassive.com

Brussels, BelgiumSince 2015, all new buildings and retrofits are required to be Nearly-Zero Energy, based on the Passive House Standard.

Stockholm, 80,000 apartmentsdistrict heat from treated sewage

Vancouver Olympic VillageDistrict Heat from sewage pump station

Six Sources of Renewable Heat

Air-source heatGround-source heatStored solar heatBiomass/BiogasHeat exchange ventilator

Dog-source heat

100% renewable energy buildingsAll new buildings Passive House design by 2021Major home energy retrofit programCondos energy retrofit programCommercial & Industrial energy retrofit programsUrban Centres District Heat programs

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters5. Balance an annually increasingprice on carbon with the use of flexible regulations

FLEXIBLE REGULATIONSCARBONPRICINGGREENHOUSEGASES

FLEXIBLE REGULATIONSGREENHOUSEGASESFewer Flex-Regs = Higher Price on Carbon Needs $200 a tonne by 2030 to meet Paris(Is Win-Win Possible? Mark Jaccard et al, 2016)

CARBONPRICINGGREENHOUSEGASESMore Flex-Regs = Lower Price on Carbon

Take your pick: Revenue-neutral carbon tax, balanced by tax reductionsRevenue positive carbon tax, income to climate solutionsCarbon fee and dividend, everyone gets annual chequeCarbon cap-and-trade, caps for industry, trading for carbon allowances

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters5. Balance an annually increasingprice on carbon with the use of flexible regulations

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters6. Build a green, cooperative, entrepreneurial economy for the 21st century

Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of EnglandClimate change initiatives offer a $5-7 trillion funding opportunity for capital markets.

Almost Twice as Many Green Jobs in CanadaBy Guy Dauncey

800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost 1,000,000 green energy jobs gained

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters6. Build a green, cooperative, entrepreneurial economy for the 21st century

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters7. Targets, policies and regulations to reduce fossil fuel industry emissions

ALBERTA OIL SANDSPlan Zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions. Freeze production at an agreed level.Question licenses for all new pipelines.Close down the last oil sands operation by 2040.Firm up requirements for boreal forest restoration.

The Scientifically Needed Solution Thats Not Happening Yet Each nation is allocated a cap, based on the climate maths.2. Every producer or importer of fossil fuels bids for a permit in an annual national auction.

A Global Carbon Cap

Fossil fuels importedFossil fuels extractedAn Annual Fossil Fuel Permits AuctionEach year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permits

201520202025203020352040Every year5-10% CO2 reduction

201520202025203020352040Every year5-10% renewable energy increase

The Scientifically Needed Solution Thats Not Happening Yet Each nation is allocated a cap, based on the climate maths.2. Every producer or importer of fossil fuels bids for a permit in an annual national auction.

A Global Carbon CapNOT REMOTELY NEAR THE TABLE YETPOLITICALLY NOT READY

Carbon rationing for individuals and businesses

Carbon rationing for individuals and businesses

NOT REMOTELY NEAR THE TABLE YETPOLITICALLY NOT READY

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters7. Targets, policies and regulations to reduce fossil fuel industry emissions

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters8. Direct Action to ensure no new fossil fuel expansion projects

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters8. Direct Action to ensure no new fossil fuel expansion projects

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters9. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canadas emissions-intensive industries reduce their emissions and shift to 100% renewable energy

INDUSTRYImprove energy efficiency Replace coal and gas with biomass/hydrogenR&D for future green heat

Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters9. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canadas emissions-intensive industries reduce their emissions and shift to 100% renewable energy

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters10. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canadas farmers, ranchers and foresters reduce their emissions

End DeforestationGlobally and in Canada

1.5Gigatonnes of carbon a year globally

Current logging practices in BC

The livestock industry meat & dairy is causing 15% of global warming

Who, - me?

Me?

Why so big?

N2O from manureMethane from manureMethane from anaerobic digestion (burping)US DataEach molecule of methane traps 34 x more heat than CO2 over 100 years; 84 x more over 20 years.

Under discussion in Denmark

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters10. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canadas farmers, ranchers and foresters reduce their emissions

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters11. Strengthen efforts to eco-sequestrate the excess carbon out of the atmosphere

Atmospheric carbon 1850 2016560 Gt 807 Gt 260 ppm 400 ppm

Atmospheric carbon 807 Gt700 GT350 ppm

SustainableForestryOrganicFarmingNewRanching

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters11. Strengthen efforts to eco-sequestrate the excess carbon out of the atmosphere

LEARN

EDUCATEACTDREAMINNOVATIONNEWSUPPORTPOLICIESINCENTIVESR & DECO-INVESTMENTECONOMYJOBS PUBLIC, YOU & ME,SCHOOLS, NGOsGOVERNMENTSBUSINESSGREENHOUSEGASESCARBONPRICINGFLEXIBLE REGULATIONSClimate Action - Putting it all together

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters12. Work with other nations to accelerate global progress

Denmark

Denmark

Since Sweden accounts for less than 0.2% of total global emissions, the country could easily have gone unnoticed in the climate debate. Instead, Sweden has chosen to do more than many other countries on issues regarding energy and the climate.

Swedens goals to reduce GHG emissions compared with 1990 by 40% by 2020, and to have a vehicle fleet completely rid of fossil fuels by 2030, are stepping stones to the overarching goal of a society with no net GHG emissions by 2050.

The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters12. Work with other nations to accelerate global progress

The vision of a future in which we have achieved a great transition, avoided collapse, and live in harmony with Nature.

www.journeytothefuture.ca

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

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