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1 Climate Change Expert Group
Breakout group session outl ine
Part 1 (11:45 – 13:15)What does “durable” mean?Structure of the 2015 agreementMetrics used to express contributions
Part 2 (14:30 – 16:00)Process for revisiting and adjusting contributions
Part 3 (16:30 – 18:00)Continued discussion and next steps
Climate Change Expert Group www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg.htm
Gregory Briner, [email protected]
Based on the draft paper “Built to Last: Designing a Flexible and Durable 2015 Climate Change Agreement” by Gregory Briner, Takayoshi Kato and Takashi Hattori
Built to Last:Introduction and options for flexibility in the
structure and metrics of the 2015 agreement
CCXG Global Forum18 March 2014
3 Climate Change Expert Group
Built to Last: presentation outl ine
What does “durable” mean?Structure of the 2015
agreementMetrics used to express
contributionsQuestions for discussion
Source: John Perivolaris
4 Climate Change Expert Group
What does “durable” mean?
“A durable 2015 agreement would be an agreement that is ambitious and fair when it comes into effect from 2020, and continues to be ambitious and fair in response to structural changes and external shocks after 2020…”
Flexibil i ty Predictabil i ty
Flexibil i ty
5 Climate Change Expert Group
Possible changes and external shocks
Scientific
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Natural disasters
Source: NASA Goddard
Economic
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Political
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Demographic
Source: Greg Briner
Technological
Source: Solar Impulse
6 Climate Change Expert Group
Possible structure of the agreement
Information document
Information document
Information document
COP decision
COP decision
COP decisionCOP decision
COP decision
Core polit ical and/orlegal
agreement(with annexes)
7 Climate Change Expert Group
Metrics used to express contributions
The metrics used to express mitigation contributions could affect how flexible the 2015 agreement is
Examples of flexible metrics: emissions intensity, GHG emissions relative to BAU, non-GHG metrics
These metrics can increase responsiveness to external shocks, but also increase uncertainty regarding future environmental outcomes
Multiple contributions by a country expressed using different metrics could be more durable than a single contribution expressed in GHG terms
8 Climate Change Expert Group
Discussion questions
What are possible interpretations of the term “durable” in the context of the 2015 climate change agreement?
How could the 2015 agreement be structured in a durable manner?
Could the use of metrics such as emissions intensity, GHG emissions relative to BAU and non-GHG metrics by some Parties help to make the agreement more durable?
