Barriers to Sustainable heatingA diverse challenge in a diverse market

• New/Large• Old/Large

• New/Small• Old/Small

Retrofit domestic

>55C(many)

New domestic

<55C (few)New cities/

Industry>70C (more)Retrofit

cities/Industry

>70C (many)

Major focus areas

Political

Human

CommercialTechnical

Environmental

Major POLITICAL barriersPOLICY CLARITY• DO WE REALLY MEAN RENEWABLE? Not SUSTAINABLE? • USE P.E.F. TO JUDGE OPPORTUNITIES• ACCEPT GAS PHASE DOWN IS NECESSARY AND NEEDS DRIVEN

POLICY ENFORCEMENT• TIGHTEN ENFORCEMENT OF EEPBD• REMOVE PLANNING OBSTACLES

POLICY REACH (RETROFIT)• ESTABLISH RETROFIT POLICY• SET TARGETS FOR EXISTING BUILDING STOCK (incl Landlord obligation)• MINIMUM EFFICIENCY >110% FOR REFURBS.........CALIFORNIA ANNOUNCED

GAS IS CHEAP – WE KEEP CONSTRUCTING GAS HEATED BUILDINGS• END "GAS IS CHEAP AND AVAILABLE/PERMISSABLE –MAKE TAX RELATIVE TO CO2• DISTRICT HEATING READY REFURB MANDATORY• CANADA ANNOUNCED CO2 TAX AT $50/t IN 2022 ($10/T IN 2018)

Major COMMERCIAL barriers

COST• SIMPLIFY/STANDARDISE/REPEAT DEPLOYMENT• ADJUST INDUSTRY USAGE FROM STEAM

REQUIRED ROI TOO HIGH• ESTABLISH INVESTMENT/DEPLOYMENT MODEL• SIMPLIFY SUPPLY CHAIN WITH UTILITY MODEL

STATUS QUO• GAS TOO CHEAP• LEVY TAX ON CO2

Major TECHNICAL barriersUSEABILITY • SIMPLIFY/STANDARDISE DEPLOYMENT• INTERFACES NOT FRIENDLY

RETRO-FITABILITY• DEVELOP INDUSTRY NORMS eg DRYING• SMALLER RESIDENTIAL UNITS• BETTER TEMPERATURE LIFT• LIFE CYCLE FOCUS WILL DRIVE HIGHER EFFICIENCY

INSTALLER BASE NOT BUSY ENOUGH• ESTABLISH FUNDED MODELS TO DRIVE VOLUME UP/COSTS DOWN

Major ENVIRONMENT barriers

WORKING FLUIDS• SIMPLIFY USE OF NATURALs (higher

efficiency/warmer)

NOISE• STANDARDISE GOALS

VARIABLE OUTCOMES• STANDARD TESTING / LIFECYCLE TESTING

Major HUMAN barriers

CONFIDENCE• SIMPLIFY/STANDARDISE DEPLOYMENT• EC PUBLICITY – NO TIME FOR AGNOSTICS

ROLE OF EXISTING UTILITY OPERATORS• ESTABLISH INVESTMENT/DEPLOYMENT MODEL• COMPULSORY OFFER WITH GAS BILLS

BRING SOME PZAZZ• APPLE, GOOGLE, AMAZON ETC• FUNDED MODEL

Summary• Force retrofit adoption

– (California 80% reductionn in 8 years – be bold)• Make polluters pay on fossil fuel• Bring Life Cycle (pay as you go) model

– Compulsory if selling gas to offer 10% Heat Purchase• Smooth working fluid barriers• Publicity from EC (are EC buildings on 2050 pathway?)

• Focus on repeating best practice• MANAGEMENT THEORY• HUMOUR• REALITY

Crossing the chasm

Drive up

Sustainable

Solutions

Drive down

Non-Sustainable

Solutions

The choice?

Listen to “Policy Needs” and act for the future now.......

Or wait till the Carrot is a just a faded memory!