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Climate Change:A National and Marine
Perspective
David WoolfNational Oceanography Centre, Southampton
Outline• Global/Regional Warming and Sea Level Rise
– Temperature Change– Sea level Change
• Changes in Weather Patterns– Changes in Occurrence– Changes in Wave Heights
• THC Collapse– Ocean Circulation– Temperature Change– Sea Level Change
• Summary
Global Sea Level Rise
Changes in Weather Patterns
Our Variable Winters: The NAO
• Strong influence on European Climate• Not necessarily connected with Global Change• Definite influence on many surface parameters
Variability in Wintertime Wave Climate
• Variations in wave height coherent over large distances in response to major modes of atmospheric variability
• North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO
• East Atlantic Pattern, EAP
NAO
EAP
Variability in Weather Patterns • Future Climate
Changes can be expressed as changes in main patterns, e.g.
• North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO
• East Atlantic Pattern, EAP
• NAO predicted to go positive
THCCollapse?
Slowing of Atlantic conveyor:
~30%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Volume transport
(Million cubic metres per
second)
1957 1981 1992 1998 2004Year
~30%
After Bryden et al (Nature, 2005)
Combined effect of Greenhouse Gases and THC Collapse
Sea Level Rise with THC Collapse
Summary• Global Warming is Real• But the detail is uncertain. Expect the
Unexpected• Probable outcomes include sea level
rise and an increase in storminess. Thus affecting
Coastal DefencesOffshore EngineeringRenewable Energy