Upload
nichiusa
View
181
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Presentation at the National Institute for Coastal and Harbor Infrastructure, Business Summit, May 7, 2014; New York Academy of Sciences.
Citation preview
Assessing and Responding to Climate Risk
Building a Resilient Coast is Important Even in Today’s Climate
National Business Summit: Rising Sea Levels, Extreme Storms and Aging Infrastructure
New York, NY
May 7, 2014
Jeff WilliamsSr. Mgr, Climate Consulting
We Understand StormsEntergy
Wholesale Commodities
Hurricane Rita Hurricane Gustav
Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Sandy
Utility
Hurricane IsaacHurricane Ike
Values we share together
The Business Case
Enhancing Prosperity, Safety and Quality of Life
Concerns about how to deal with today’s conditions
Preserving heritage and restoring environment for future generations
Emergency evacuation of crews and equipment from Grand Isle & Port
Fourchon in front of storm surge from Hurricane Ike .
Meaningful action takes the worst outcomes off the table
We get to choose between mitigation, adaptation and suffering
Odds of Extreme Weather are changing: 10 times as many record highs as record lows
Models show Ratio could be 20:1 by mid century and 50:1 by 2100
“Record high temperatures far outpace record low temperatures”, G. Meehl, NCAR 11/09
Gulf Coast Adaptation Study October 2010
Hazards Evaluated
$2 Trillion in assets at risk today Producing $634 billion Annual GDP
Expect a Katrina like storm twice every lifetime
Climate change is expected to increase losses over time
12
Residential/ commercial
1 Building codes
Oil and gas
6 Floating production systems
7 Replacing semi-subs with drill ships
8 Levees for refineries, petrochemical plants
Infra-structure/ Environ-mental
3 Wetlands restoration1
2 Beach nourishment
4 Levee systems1
Electric utility
9 Resilience of electric utility systems
0.4
0.1
1.4
7.5
1.3
0.7
0.5
1.1
1.7
0.3
Loss averted, 2030$ Billions
And there are some key near term actions to protect our region – that are cost effective, and will help our economy and our environment
1 Included despite high C/B ratios due to strong co-benefits, risk aversion2 Total capital investment, non-discounted, across 20 years
5 Improved standards offshore platforms
Total
C/B ratiox
0.7
1.3
1.6
0.7
0.5
3.3
0.7
3.8
0.9
CapEx required2
$ Billions
Public funding
Private funding
18
25
1
12
12144 76
15
5
11
18
16
There is residual risk that must be addressed, a problem that maybe exacerbated by climate change
Swiss re; Wharton Project on Managing and Finance; Sigma database; team analysis
11 BRRC Forums provided a voice for the Gulf Coast region
Recommendations
• Resolve conflicting Federal Policy
• Deploy “Multiple Lines of Defense”
• Allow innovation and enterprise to flourish
• Revitalize regional strength and pride
• Sustain action based recommendations
Technical Conferences showed highly cost effective resilience measures
exist but require proactive investments
– Determine how best to prioritize the assets that need storm hardening.
– Ensure good communication and reliable information is available during storms.
– Continue to educate about the importance of resilience; our communities and businesses need to understand.
– Use our political influence to help fight for policies and resources to improve resilience or partner with others on areas of mutual interest. We need to speak with one voice – work as a team to determine what to do next.
– Push for public and private financing and investment into resilient infrastructure.
– Utilities need to invest in resilience and prioritize issues that require proactivity.
– Work with customers to determine what infrastructure needs to be up and running first after storms (e.g. hospitals etc.).
Port Fourchon Today
Port Fourchon in 2030 with Storm Surge & Sea Level Rise
Resilience or Suffering: Our Choice to Make