Scenarios To Strategy

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Scenarios to strategy was presented to New South Wales public library staff by Oliver Freeman and Richard Watson as past of the New South Wales Public Library research project on developing scenarios for the future of New South Wales public libraries, 28 July 2009

Text of Scenarios To Strategy

  • 1. Introduced by Oliver

2. Human Nature HumanNature 3. Global Financial Crisis 4. 3Burning Issues Globalisation Technological Change 5. Social Networks 6. Environmental Change 7. The Scenario Quest Process Social Change 8. Impact of generational change Generational Change 9. The Scenario Quest Process Introduced by Oliver 10. Scenario Learning

  • Collective
  • Reflexive
  • Experiential
  • Systemic

11. Learning to be Strategic STEP 3 Scenario Logics STEP 2 Learning to Generate Scenarios INSPECT Environmental Influences Critical Uncertainties Scenario Narratives Scenario Learning Logic Plausible Scenarios Strategy Testing Strategic Designs Strategic Challenges Question Design 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 STEP 1 Learning to Identify andFocusIssues Framing Question Key Factor Analysis Issues Identification 12.

      • . represented by the ScenarioQUEST Foresight Methodology

13. Scenario Practice

  • Learn about the key issues we face
  • Identify the influences changing our world
  • Create alternative futures relevant to the issues and responding to the influences
  • Identify the strategic implications of these futures
  • Create adaptive and generative strategies for today

14. The Public Library Framing Questions

  • What professional skills & attitudes will public library staff in NSW be demonstrating in 2030 in order to be successful in the alternative futures in which they might operate?
  • Where will the leadership and funding that drives this success come from?

15. THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT OUR SYSTEM OF INTEREST OURSELVES 16. NSW Public Libraries Public Libraries as an Organisational System 17. Environment NSPECT NSW Public Libraries 18. NSW Public Libraries NATURAL SOCIAL POLITICAL ECONOMIC CULTURAL TECHNOLOGICAL The Environment as a set of Interacting Influences 19. NATURAL SOCIAL POLITICAL ECONOMIC CULTURAL TECHNOLOGICAL 20. Four Draft Scenarios Introduced by Richard 21. 22. Scenario 1 Overview

  • Overview
  • Mood:survivalist
  • Present day link:going backwards
  • Physical books:valued
  • Libraries:re-discovered

Silent Spring

  • Shock Influences
  • climate change
  • resource shortages
  • drift away from digital
  • technology rejected/restrained
  • Consequent Scenario
  • slower and more sustainable
  • re-balancing, switching things off
  • shift to local living
  • renaissance of physical books
  • need for safe community spaces

23. Scenario 2 Overview

  • Overview
  • Mood:harmonious
  • Present day link:long boom
  • Physical books:declining
  • Libraries:third spaces

Rise of the Creative Class

  • Shock Influences
  • high rate of technology change
  • shift to digital living
  • declining attention spans
  • too much information
  • underlying anxiety
  • Consequent Scenario
  • expansion of library services
  • urban/rural divide
  • format instability
  • library polarisation

24. Scenario 3 Overview

  • Overview
  • Mood:bewilderment
  • Present day link:acceleration
  • Physical books:leisure use
  • Libraries:silver lining

Future Shock

  • Shock Influences
  • resource shortages
  • price spikes
  • information overload
  • generational divides
  • Consequent Scenario
  • shortages of everything
  • internet brownouts
  • anxiety & uncertainty
  • media mayhem

25. Scenario 4 Overview

  • Overview
  • Mood:ambivalent
  • Present day link:digitalisation
  • Physical books:dying
  • Libraries:low use

Being Digital

  • Shock Influences
  • digitalisation & virtualisation
  • ubiquitous connectivity
  • e-government
  • Consequent Scenario
  • fast paced
  • rise of the BRICs
  • GRIN technologies
  • e-everything
  • convenience rules!

26. The Strategic Domains Introduced by Oliver 27. 2The Strategic Domains 28. ProfessionalDevelopment Resourcing Leadership & InfluenceResources Branding & Identity Communityengagement The Strategic Domains Governance & Regulation 29. Strategic Implications Introduced by Richard 30. Strategies within a Strategic Domain Strategy A Strategy B Strategy D Strategy C Strategy E Strategy F 31. Strategic Options Introduced by Oliver 32. Strategies by Domain Across the ScenariosStrategy ANo Brainer Strategy BRisky Strategy DKeep Safe Strategy CNo Brainer Strategy ERisky Strategy FRisky 33. Challenges for Today Introduced by Richard andOliver 34. 8Transformations 3 What should our high level prioritisedobjectives look like for the Plan period?Allan Tweet!I wonder what we should be doing now.? 35. The Last Word Everyone!