Disruption in the Transport ModelBede Doherty – e-Mobility Manager

Relationships

2SF3-AU-BF-AL Disruption Energy 2015

Content

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1. Previous disruptions

2. National fuel security

3. Urban planning - vulnerability

4. Impact on urban design

5. Powertrains 101

6. Challenges - & what’s not needed

7. Opportunities

8. Fleets: their importance and a methodology

9. Benefits

10. Call to action

The Great Horse Crisis of 1894

Previous model disruption

Picture: http://bytesdaily.blogspot.com.au/2011/07/great-horse-manure-crisis-of-1894.html 4

National energy security

http://www.mynrma.com.au/media/Fuel_Security_Report.pdf 5

Vulnerability to oil price & mortgage rate

Dodson, Jago, and Neil Sipe. "Oil vulnerability in the Australian city: Assessing socioeconomic risks from higher urban fuel prices." Urban studies 44.1

(2007): 37-62.6

Urban planning & design

https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/AboutMelbourne/Statistics/Documents/TransformingCitiesMay2010.pdf 7

Goal: Avoid increasing numbers of cars...

http://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/Projects-Northern-Sydney-Freight-Corridor-Program/epping-thornleigh-third-track 8

Goal: Avoid increasing numbers of cars...

http://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/Projects-Northern-Sydney-Freight-Corridor-Program/epping-thornleigh-third-track 9

Total transport emissions (Aus) >15%Electric transport can use LGCs

http://www.transportnewsbrief.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2013/12/BYD-1-e1387382949584.jpg

http://www.fusionelectricbikes.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/erace_white_or.jpg

http://image.made-in-china.com/2f0j00aCVQLNsmkybq/48V-20ah-Lead-Acid-Battery-Electric-Bike-Scooter-JX637-.jpg10

Bike highway

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/architecture-design-blog/2014/jan/02/norman-foster-skycycle-elevated-bike-routes-london 11

Powertrain architecture

http://economicdevelopment.vic.gov.au/transport/rail-and-roads/electric-vehicle-trial 12

OpportunitiesPublic charging infrastructure

http://cdn.bmwblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Blink_charging_stations-750x570.jpg 13

Challenges Awareness

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Range

Charging cost

Charging time

Acceleration

Comfort

Maintenance

Battery life

Re-sale value

Challenges Model Diversity

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Shape Size BEV PHEV HEV

Hatch Small

Medium 2 1

Sedan Small

Medium 1 4

Large 1

SUV Small

Medium 1

Large 3

Ute/Van Small

Medium 1

Large

MPV Large 1

How to catch up

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Public charging infrastructure not required

Government subsidy not required - but policy support helpful

Education required - informed decisions

OpportunitiesElectricity is cheaper than petrol

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OpportunitiesBEVs, PHEVs & HEVs can cost less than ICEs

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The vital role of companies

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Private buyers are put off by purchase price

So, company fleets are vital to progress:

Understand Total Cost of Mobility (includes car alternatives)

Aggregated demand can lead to increased model diversity

Re-sold vehicles go to private buyers

What can companies do - 1Set emissions targets and budget

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How can fleets achieve objectives?

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Techniques

Reduce the number of vehicles in the fleet

Use public transport / carshare / bikeshare (1-card access)

Use carsharing when demand exceeds pool supply

(access/booking)

Allocate jobs to drivers dynamically, to minimise driving

Rent pool vehicles to staff when not being used (such an

internal carsharing program also helps reduce private vehicle

ownership)

Use telematics to analyse best-fit vehicle powertrain

i.e. BEV or PHEV or HEV or more efficient petrol/diesel.

Replace fleets with virtual (shared) fleets

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Benefits

BenefitsCompanies

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reduce costs & emissions

reduce risk (energy security)

provide certainty (transport energy costs)

Benefits

Australia

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create local jobs

increase national energy security

increase competitiveness of Australian business

reduce national transport emissions

Call to action

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Let’s create demand for BEV/PHEV/HEV in Australia

Let’s prevent the number of cars on the roads increasing

Let’s plan to evolve transport energy from foreign oil to local

electricity

Let’s create local jobs

Let’s reduce corporate risk

Let’s reduce costs

Let’s increase business competitiveness

Let’s work together to achieve this - the electricity sector, the motor

sector and all levels of government.

Thank you