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Presentation at the HEA-funded workshop 'Making undergraduate social science count: engaging sociology and criminology students in quantitative research methods'. This workshop aimed to encourage pedagogical reflection and debate on the teaching of quantitative methods to sociology/criminology undergraduates and provide delegates with opportunities for the sharing of best practice in this area. The event included dissemination of the outputs of two recent HEA-funded projects on teaching research methods in the social sciences. Delegates were also introduced to some new and existing quantitative datasets and resources and explore the potential for integrating these across the undergraduate curriculum. This presentation is part of a related blog post that provides an overview of the event: http://bit.ly/1iBrVMR For further details of the HEA's work on teaching research methods in the Social Sciences, please see: http://bit.ly/15go0mh
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Richard Erskine
DoJ Analytical Services Group
Northern Ireland
Crime Datasets
HEA Social Sciences
University of Ulster
Friday 7 March 2014
Northern Ireland Crime Datasets
Northern Ireland Crime Datasets
Northern Ireland Crime Datasets
Northern Ireland Crime Datasets
• What this means is that all statistics produced in these
organisations have to conform to the rules for official statistics.
• In other words, they are subject to stringent validation checks,
consultation rules, etc, ….
• which is good for researchers but can be bad for managers
Northern Ireland PSNI Datasets
Recorded Crime (monthly)
Anti-Social Behaviour (monthly)
Drug Seizures (monthly)
Hate Crime (quarterly)
Domestic Violence (quarterly)
Stop and Search (quarterly)
PACE Arrests etc. (annual)
Northern Ireland Datasets
NIO/Westminster
Terrorism Act Statistics
(supplied primarily from PSNI and DoJ)
Northern Ireland Courts and Tribunals
Crown Court
Magistrates’ Court
Children Order
County Court
High Court
(Tribunals)
Convictions and Prosecutions
All Convictions and Prosecutions
Statistics (should) come
from
Core DoJ
together with: Reoffending data and NI Crime Survey findings
Prisons Information
Prisons information
can come from
either the Core DoJ
or NI Prison Service
depending on what the query is.
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
What is the NICS?
•A face-to-face interview survey of adults living in private
households throughout Northern Ireland
•Ad-hoc 1994/95-2003/04; Continuous since 2005
•Target 4,000 completed interviews annually**
•Based largely on CSEW
•Mix of CAPI and CASI techniques
•Simple random sample
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
What is the NICS?
•A face-to-face interview survey of adults living in private
households throughout Northern Ireland
•Ad-hoc 1994/95-2003/04; Continuous since 2005
•Target 4,000 completed interviews annually**
•Based largely on CSEW
•Mix of CAPI and CASI techniques
•Simple random sample
** 3,500 for 2013/14 and more decreases likely for 2014/15
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
Standard Publications
•Experience of Crime: Findings from the 2012/13 Northern
Ireland Crime Survey (20 December 2013)
•Perceptions of Crime: Findings from the 2012/13 Northern
Ireland Crime Survey (26 February 2014)
•Perceptions of Policing, Justice and Anti-Social Behaviour
(tbc)
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
Quarterly Updates
•Perceptions of Policing, Justice and Anti-Social Behaviour
Individual Modules
• Domestic Violence
• Night-Time Economy
• Experience of ASB
•(Drug Misuse)
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
Performance measurement
Programme for Government 2011-2015
•Improve community safety by tackling ASB
Increase % agreeing that the police and partnership agencies
are dealing with local ASB and crime issues;
Reduce % perceiving a high level of ASB in their area;
Increase % whose life is minimally affected by their experience
of ASB
•Tackle crime against older and vulnerable people by
a range of measures
Develop programme of measures to reduce fear of
crime and increase confidence
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
Performance measurement
Policing Plan 2012-2015
•Confidence in policing
Increase % agreeing with a suite of indicators concerning the
performance of the local police;
Increase % expressing overall confidence in the local police
•Personal policing
Reduce % perceiving a high level of ASB in their
area
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
UKSA Assessment
•National statistics outputs
Experience of Crime
Perceptions of Crime
•NS Designation awarded March 2013
UK Statistics Authority - Assessment of DoJ outputs
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
Experience of crime
Level of crime in Northern Ireland: NICS v recorded crime
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Nu
mb
er
of
off
en
ces
PSNI Recorded Crime NICS Incidents
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
Experience of crime
Level of crime in Northern Ireland: NICS v recorded crime
Northern Ireland ASB Neighbourhood Renewal Areas
Anti-Social Behaviour and Neighbourhood Renewal Areas
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
ASB: NRA v NonNRA
NonNRA
NRA
Northern Ireland ASB Neighbourhood Renewal Areas
Anti-Social Behaviour and Neighbourhood Renewal Areas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Decrease in ASB: NRA v NonNRA
NonNRA NRA
Northern Ireland Crime Neighbourhood Renewal Areas
Crime and Neighbourhood Renewal Areas
Decrease in Crime: NRA v NonNRA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
NonNRA NRA
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
Costs
Cost Reductions
•Cost for 2012/13 was £335k
•4,000 sample
•Total research budget= £525k
•Cost for 2013/14 is £300k
•3,500 sample
•Total research budget=£416k
•Cost for 2014/15 is ?
•? sample
•Total research budget=£290k ?
“Is our debt big enough yet for
a bail-out?”
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
Future sweeps of NICS
April 2014 onwards
Alternative data collection modes
Reduce length of questionnaire
Move to biennial survey
Reduce NICS sample size by 50%
•Alternative funding sources?
Northern Ireland Crime Survey
Future sweeps of NICS
Potential Losses, e.g.:
Geographical (e.g. Neighbourhood Renewal Analysis)
Demographic (e.g. Age, Dependants, SES, etc)
Community background….
Research Funding
Research Funding
The days of government being ready to hand out large sums of
money are long gone
The days of the Department having large sums to hand out at all
are long gone
The days of researchers being able to get away with badly
constructed tenders or projects are also long gone
University Overheads
University Overheads
There is ever increasing pressure to award research on the basis
of cost
The university overheads can be prohibitive as a cost factor
We need to find better ways of working together for mutual benefit
and in the public interest
Research Procurement Websites
https://e-sourcingni.bravosolution.co.uk/web/login.shtml
http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/cpd
Richard Erskine
DoJ Analytical Services Group
Questions or comments?
www.dojni.gov.uk/index/statistics-research.htm
