US Higher Education Market Forest Baker

June 2015

US Higher Ed market consists of 28.3M postsecondary students

(undergrad and grad). For-profit schools account for only 12%.

20M (71%)

5M (17%)

3.5M (12%)

Total students enrolled in postsecondary institutions 2012-2013

Public

Private

For-Profit

http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

Enrollments peaked in 2010 for Public and For-Profit.

For-profits have had an annual growth rate of 10%.

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Public

Private

For-Profit

CAGR = 1%

CAGR = 2%

CAGR = 10%

http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

US Higher Ed market consists of >7K postsecondary institutions.

For-Profits are 47% of institutions, but have only 12% of students.

2K (27%)

1.8K (25%)

3.4K (47%)

Total postsecondary institutions in the US that award federal student aid by control of institution

Public

Private

For-Profit

http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

The # of For-Profit institutions has been growing 3% annually.

The # of Public and Private schools has remained flat.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Public

Private

For-Profit

CAGR = 3%

CAGR = 0%

CAGR = 0%

http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

Graduate students make up only 13% of postsecondary

students.

24.5M (87%)

3.8M (13%)

Total students enrolled in postsecondary institutions 2012-2013

Undergraduate

Graduate

http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

Undergrad enrollments peaked in 2010.

Graduate enrollment has grown consistently without spikes.

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

Undergraduate

Graduate

CAGR = 2%

CAGR = 2%

http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

Majority of grad students are split between Public and Private

schools, with For-Profits accounting for only 12% of grad students.

1.8M (47%)

1.6M (42%)

0.5M (12%)

Grad students enrolled in postsecondary institutions 2012-2013

Public

Private

For-Profit

http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

Grad student enrollments have been flat for Public schools, but have

been growing for Private and For-Profit (both peaking in 2010).

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Public

Private

For-Profit

CAGR = 0%

CAGR = 2%

CAGR = 11%

http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

Growth in tuition costs at Public and Private accelerated after

2000.

http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2015/05/the-real-cost-of-college/393086/

Unemployment for recent grads may not be the real issue.

Reduced earnings may be the bigger challenge.

25% Increase in unemployment rate for 18-24 college compared to 2006. This statistic overstates the magnitude of the problem: 2006 = 4% 2015 = 5% Reduced earnings may be the bigger challenge (see chart). Going to a top school may not be “the” casual factor for employment. Simply being the kind of person who could get into a top school may be key. http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/business/dalekrueger_More_Selective_College.pdf

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/05/the-new-normal-for-young-workers/393560/

Profile of For-Profit students: Older (24+) and 48% are white.

Healthcare degrees accounts for 42% of credentials earned.

3K+ Number of institutions

865K Number of credentials awarded in 2011

http://www.apscu.org