TOKYO – CLIMATE CHANGE CONCERNS AND STRATEGIES

Main discussionTokyo as a mega city susceptible to natural hazards like floods, typhoons,

and rising temperaturesHow Japan (Tokyo) is dealing with current debates on global warming,

green house emissions and renewable energy

Introduction

Megacity

Climate change issues include – rising temperature, floods and typhoons as well as energy concerns.

Floods and typhoons in Tokyo

Tokyo Metropolitan Area’s proximity to water bodies exposes it to flooding. The rivers are prone to flooding because they flow rapidly, due to the steepness of slopes along their basins.

Tokyo’s economic and political activities are centered around the Tokyo Bay which increases its vulnerability to weather related-disasters.

Rising temperatures

According to the study, “Rising Temperatures and megacities” 2003,

Over the last 100 years, the average temperature in Tokyo has risen by 5.3°F degrees while the rest of the world’s average temperatures rose by 1°F (Brooke 2002)[1]

Also it was noted that Japan's population fell by a record 123,000 people in 2010, and suspicion has fallen on last year's scorching summer and weather extremes as the main cause.

Energy

The major thrust of Japan’s resource and energy diplomacy has traditionally been to secure a stable supply of fossil fuels, namely oil and natural gas.

Soaring demand for energy from emerging nations like China and India and rising resource nationalism in energy-rich countries like Russia are among the factors making this a period of historic transition in the international energy situation.

FACTS

3. Measure at home （ Measure in daily

life ）• Supporting Energy

Conservation

• Expanding the Use of Solar Energy

2. Small and medium-sized establishments•Start of the Programs for Reporting on Measures against Global Warming

•Project to Promote Energy Conservation and Create Emission Credits for Small and Medium-Sized Facilities

4. Measure in a new building and large-scale development

•Define Energy Performance as a Basic Performance Standard for Buildings•Raise the Energy Efficiency Standards for New Buildings, and Give Local Governments Discretionary Power to Set Standards

5. Use promotion of renewable energy• Expanded Use of Solar Power in the Commercial and Industrial Sectors Interregional Cooperation to Expand Renewable Energy Usage• Promoting Practical • Applications of Wave Power Electricity Generation by the Private Sector and Others

1. Large business establishments

•Implementation of the Tokyo Emission Trading 　 System (Tokyo-ETS) Cap-and- Trade Program

•Conducting Projects to Support the Smooth Implementation of Mandatory Emission 　 Reductions

TOKYO CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGYADOPTED BY THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN GOVERNMENT IN JUNE 2007

1. Cap-and-Trade and Other Innovative Programs in Collaboration with Tokyo Businesses and Industry organizations- aims to reduce total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, is the third cap-and-trade system in the world, and the first in the world to specifically target thecommercial sector. - Program for Reporting on Measures against Global Warming (Voluntary submissionand mandatory submission)2. Green Buildings: A New Era- Enhancement of Tokyo Green Building Program- Introduction of energy efficiency performance standards- Introduction of reporting on energy efficiency performance assessments- Enhancement of Green Labeling Program for Apartment Buildings3. Creating and Promoting Low-Carbon Business Models - Submission of Energy Performance Certificates- Creation of District Energy Program for Efficient Use- Certification System for High-Efficiency Household Water Heaters4. Enhancing Programs to Promote the Tokyo Climate Change Strategy- 10-Year Project for a Carbon-Minus Tokyo- Collaboration with Wards and Municipalities in Tokyo- Establishment of the Tokyo Metropolitan Center for Climate Change Actions5. Sharing Innovative Policies with the World

TOKYO – CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES

1.Creating Sustainable Growth in Tokyo Through Climate Change Strategies

※Aim at achieving the 2020 emission reduction targets2. Transforming Tokyo into a Low-Carbon City※Further accelerate and expand our activities to transform

Tokyo into a low-carbon city3. Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tokyo※In order to reduce the risks associated with climate change,

and to undertake appropriate responses to climate change impacts

4. Efforts at Tokyo Metropolitan Government Facilities5. Networking with Leading Companies, NGOs, and

Experts6. Collaboration with Other Local Governments in the

Tokyo Metropolitan Area and Nationwide7. Collaboration with Sub-National Governments

Worldwide※In order to contribute to enhanced climate change efforts

globally by collaborating with other cities

SOME STRATEGIES TOWARDS 2020

Building next-generation energy and social systems

Developing and diffusing innovative energy technologies

Realizing a low carbon energy demand structure

Industrial sector

・ Enhancing the world’s most advanced energy efficiency through introducing the most advanced technologies for replacing equipment

・ Enhancing the energy conservation law operations, commercializing innovative technologies and enhancing support for fuel conversion, etc.

Residential sector (i.e. households and offices)

. Making net-zero-energy houses available by 2020 and realizing net-zero-energy houses in average by 2030.

・ Prevailing highly efficient water heaters to the amount of 80-90% of all family unit sin 2030

・ Replacing 100% of lights with highly-efficient lights (including LED and organic EL lighting) on a flow basis by 2020and on a stock basis by 2030

Commercial sectors (i.e. offices)

Realizing net-zero-energy buildings in new public building by 2020

Introducing new integrated standards for energy consumption at all buildings for implementation in two years

Deepening strategic relationships with resource-rich countries through resource

Raising self-sufficiency ratio of strategic rare metals (including recycling and alternative materials development) to more than 50%

Enhancing development of domestic and overseas resources including methane hydrate and sea-floor hydrothermal deposits, etc.

Expanding the introduction of renewable energy (wind, middle-small size hydro, geothermal, and biomass in addition to photovoltaic)

Promoting nuclear power generation - Building 9 new or additional nuclear plants (with the overall plant capacity utilization rate at about 85%) by 2020 and more than 14(with the rate at about 90%) by 2030

Advanced utilization of fossil fuels by constructing new coal fossil power plants by the beginning of the 2020s. Also Spreading its advanced clean coal technologies overseas and promoting further technology development and demonstration domestically.

Building the world’s most advanced next-generation interactive grid network as early as possible in the 2020s

(demand side) (supply side)

TARGETS AND SPECIFIC MEASURES TO ACHIEVE THEMReduce GHG emissions by 25% by 2020 in comparison to 2000 level Reduce a mere 10% from 2000 levels in overall Industrial and Commercial SectorsReduce 20% in household sectors

Renewable energy TargetsAim to heighten the % of renewable energy consumption of Tokyo up to 20% by 2020.

This estimation is premised on considerable energy conservation, additional building (at least14 plants)and increased facility utilization rate (approx. 90%)of nuclear power plants based on ensured safety while acquiring understanding and trust of the public on installation location, etc., as well as introduction of renewable energy to the maximum extent. Stability of the power system needs be separately studied.Coal-fired thermal power plants assume that, in response to commercialization, CCS will be provided together with all power plants when they are replaced. It should be noted that the estimate may change depending on future technological development and securing of CO2 storage locations, etc.

Japan’s and Tokyo’s balance of primary energy supply and its future

Source:Tepco 2010

Tokyo Japan

Source: The Strategic Energy Plan of Japan 2010

Sector of conversionRenewable energy : Implementation offeed-in-tariff system(depending on institutional Nuclear power :Building additional 14 plants, facility utilization rate 90%

Japan’s total accumulated investment

Conclusions Tokyo as a megacity has the following to consider:

Its energy self-sufficiency ratio which is  less than 1%. There is a need to deepen cooperation with regions that have rich sources of renewable energy in order to increase its development and use of renewable energy sources.

As an earthquake and other climatic change disaster prone city, is it really safe to invest in Nuclear Energy?

With a falling economy, a high deficit, an aging population, and declining investments in science and technology, are all the sustainable targets and commitments set by Japan and the city of Tokyo achievable?

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Tokyo’s Responsibility for Climate ChangeEnergy Security

Muhammad, Roy, Sudipta, Tomoko

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Present Situation• Citizens Energy consumption per capita 　 Tokyo: 69MJ/p , New York:178MJ/p, London:85MJ/p Energy needs of the average household in Tokyo (FY2005) air conditioner (24.9%), lighting (16,2%), refrigerator (15.5%), television (9,9%), heating carpet (4.4%)

• Companies Manufacturing 10%, Commercial Buildings 36%, Citizens (residential) 27%,

Transport 27% (Approx. 2005 CO2 emission figures for Tokyo area) Tokyo Met. encouraged dynamic CO2 cuts – influenced other areas: Saitama,

Kanagawa etc. Voluntary cuts initially then, from April 2010, obligatory Cap & Trade.

• Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Japan has few resources of its own. About 80% of resources are imported. TEPCO energy output source ( including purchased power) Nuclear power : 28 %, Hydroelectric power : 5%, Geothermal/new energies : 0%, LNG/LPG : 45%, Ca0l/Oil : 21%

<TEPCO energy output by energy source>

Agency for Natural Resources and Energy

<The percentage of energy needs of 　　 the household in Tokyo (FY2005) >

TEPCO

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For the Future

• Citizens Reducing waste of energy: ex) Switching off gadgets when not in use Reducing consumption of energy: ex) Spend time in the midst of nature with family and

friends Make choices: ex) Consider eco- labels while buying appliances

• Companies Making commercial Buildings more energy efficient. BREEAM: http://www.breeam.org/ CASBEE: http://www.ibec.or.jp/CASBEE/english/overviewE.htm Newly designed buildings have to conform – greater focus on existing buildings?

• Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Over the next ten years, TEPCO will invest 2.5 trillion yen in the development of electric

power and distribution systems toward a low carbon society. TEPCO ’ ll make ongoing efforts to expand the use of renewable energy. TEPCO’s plan at FY 2019 about energy output by energy source Nuclear power : about 50 %, Hydroelectric power : about 10%, Geothermal/new energies : almost zero, LNG/LPG : 25%, C0al/Oil : 15%

CO 2 emission intensity is expected to drop to around 0.28 kg-CO2 /kWh in FY2020 (reduction of more than 25% compared to

that in FY1990)

13TEPCO's 2020 Vision

Plan 1:Promoting high-efficiency, low-carbon thermal power generation

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• http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/annex_7_tokyo_1.pdf

• http://www.kankyo.metro.tokyo.jp/attachement/shiryou3_jourei_071119.pdf

• http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/index-e.html• TEPCO Group Medium to Long-term Growth Declaration

2020 Vision September 13, 2010

Reference

Transportation in Tokyo

Now and hopes for tomorrow

Cars• eco option, zero emissions electric

modelled cars• technological advances continue to

reduce the cost and not pollute the air • Aeon Group Mall Japan’s first

consumer ready charging stations for electric vehicles

• Mandatory fuel efficiency targets apply to most categories of onroad vehicles, including passenger cars

• Tokyo retrofit requirements effective    

Railways•Rail usage, 40 of transport•daily 18mil users/6.mil subway•Shinkansen, fastest, safest, cleaner than cars (16% Co2 of autos)•Hybrid trains-first in 1997, electric-motor diesel hybrid using rechargable batteries•Maglev Future•more hybrids/solar rail•tax incentives, point system using all inclusive passes

Photo: the world's first hybrid train. Source: freefoto.com

Bicycles• Bicycle lanes• Bicycle parking – robotic high

tech parking• E-bicycles

+Longer miles+Heavier loads+Enery usage: 15wh/mile-Battery disposal 

Planes Trend of Narita Airport:Passenger no. tripled since 1980Cargo quadruple since 1980But fuel consumption increased “only”  by 2.5 Expected double air travel demand till 2050 

Evaluation of today's actions:High level of environment initiativesEco-Airport Master Plan 

Potential to improve:  Development of technologies Efficient Use of AirspaceEfficient Plane capacities Optimizing routes and velocitiesBiokerosene               Alternative Domestic Transportation 

Food Security / Food Transitionfor Tokyo

Tokyo Food Security = Japan’s Food Security?

• Food self-sufficiency is a key component of food security• Tokyo’s food self-sufficiency is < 1%• Relies on surrounding areas for food production

– Chiba and Ibaraki produce a lot of food (#2 and 3 ag producers in Japan)…but not enough.

• Tokyo = about ¼ of Japan’s population– All of Japan as a breadbasket?

But Japan’s Food Security…

…is not very good.• Between 1960 and 2005

– the share of agricultural output in GDP dropped from 9 per cent to 1 per cent

– agricultural land dropped from 6.09 million hectares to 4.63 million hectares

– food self-sufficiency ratio from 79 per cent to 41 per cent (counted by calories*)

• Japan is one of the world’s largest food importers and has the largest agricultural import/export imbalance in the world.

*Using food calories as a food self-sufficiency metric may be debatable. That there has been a large drop between 1960 – 2005, however, is not.

Is this bad?• What’s wrong with Tokyo importing most of its

food?• Is shipping from Hokkaido to Tokyo really that

much better than shipping from California to Hokkaido?

• …too precarious. A major disruption in global food production could cause big problems. – And even if Japan could buy all the food it needed,

that would be food unavailable to other countries, e.g. developing countries, that might then starve.

Japanese AgriculturalCurrent Status and Issues 1

• In addition to shrinking farmland…• Ageing farmers, shrinking rural population

– Same period – percent of farmers over 65 years old jumped from 10% to 60%

• Result: increasing amount of formerly cultivated land going fallow

Japanese AgriculturalCurrent Status and Issues 2

• Small farm size– 2-3 ha on average (economies of scale difficult)

• Many part-time farmers (more than full-time)– Between 1960-2005, 32.1% 61.7%

• Most own their own equipment– Rate of farm equipment ownership one of the

highest in the world• All of these mean agricultural production in

Japan is quite expensive.

Japanese AgriculturalCurrent Status and Issues 3

• History of dubious government meddling– Subsidies encouraging part-time farmers to keep

“working” their fields rather than lending land to larger scale full-time farmers (who could then produce for less and be more competitive)

– JA requirements• Excessive uniformity not accounting for local differences• Overuse of agrichemicals• Historic overproduction of certain individual crops (e.g. rice

at the expense of balanced vegetables)• The (not-so-green) “Green Revolution” is fading in Japan but

JA not catching up quickly enough.

Japanese AgricultureLooming Developments

• Free trade with N.A. and others?– Can Japanese ag compete with global ag without

protectionist tariffs? Or will it break the system? (And is breaking the system good or bad?)

• DPJ changes in farmer subsidies– Now the Japanese gov’t gives direct payments to

all farmers including part-timers. Good? Bad?

Japanese AgricultureFuture Solutions?

• More farming– people to the farms (especially young people)

• chicken and egg problem• Positive developments: growing interest in organic ag,

transition towns, local consumption, renting personal garden plots, etc.

• Better farming– Closed-Loop/Organic/Permaculture

• Overcoming JA

Let’s not forget livestock(Issues)

• Japanese meat and dairy consumption has been rising for decades

• Domestic production – Pork = okay; chicken/eggs/dairy = some; beef = very

little

• BUT…almost all animal feed is imported.– Therefore livestock in Japan isn’t food creation, it’s

just food conversion, and doesn’t count towards self-sufficiency.

Let’s not forget livestock(Solutions)

• Better closed-loop livestock farming. No more CAFOs (factory farms), no more– See example of Polyface.

• Occasionally heard suggestion: – …eat more fish?

• …BAD PLAN.

What about fish and Japan anyway?

• Japan is the 2nd biggest consumer of ocean products in the world– 582 million tonnes per year (behind China at 694 million

tonnes…but China has 10x Japan’s population…)• Japan is by far the #1 consumer of sea resources per

capita (70+ kg per person per year)– That much fish consumption does not indicate a domestic

resource; it is a global one.• Mining a global resource =/= food security. FALSE SOLUTION.

– Global fishing catch is in rapid decline. Japan needs to be more responsible.

– Unsustainable preference for top-level predators (tuna, salmon, swordfish, etc.) compounds the issue.

What about fish and Japan anyway?(Developments, possible solutions)

• Bad: Refusal to join global bans on bluefin tuna, whaling, etc. indicates unwilling to address a serious issue– resistance to inevitable necessary change in status quo habits– Public knowledge of sustainability of various catches is poor.

• Good: Recent movements to eat seasonal, sustainably caught local fish– …but not a large enough percentage of consumption yet

• ???: Aquaculture (i.e. fish farming)– CAFOs of the sea are OFTEN A FALSE SOLUTION (feed sourced from

wild fish, king corn/soy, overuse of antibiotics, paracitides, etc.)– Consult GAPI (Global Aquaculture Performance Index)

http://web.uvic.ca/~gapi/index.html to check sustainability• Japan’s fish farms score worse than the global average.• BTW, don’t listen to anyone who tells you tuna farming is a solution to

anything.

Waste: Tokyo’s hidden resource?• Incredible amounts of food are simply wasted in the system

– Tokyo: 30% of household waste is food 6000 tons a day, enough to feed 4.5 million people.– Japan: total food waste per year is 19 million tons, of which 9 million hasn’t even passed

expiration date yet.

• Example causes:– Unsold fresh or pre-prepared foods in supermarket / conbini

• (Also a huge source of packaging waste)• Future Solution(s): Accept frozen as fresh for fish and meats• Future Solution(?): Slow down, cook more

– Agricultural produce or fish deemed too ugly to sell• Reflects disconnect with actual natural growing things• Future solution(?): Sell via discounts and campaigns. Rebuild connection via organics/new farming

movements, consumer education.

– No doggy bags at restaurants. Japanese restaurants throw away 31% of the food they prepare

• Future solution: Cultural change – emergence of “My Doggy Baggu”? (only half-joke)

– Buying in bulk and being unable to use before expiration dates

• Possible solutions• More home delivery systems? (Bonus: internet based, can easily be used to increase consumer

education, put spotlight on eco-friendly solutions)• Reuse

Waste: Tokyo’s hidden resource?• Reducing Waste

– Accept frozen as fresh for fish and meats– Slow down, eat less prepared food, cook more– Add “Mai Doggy Baggu” to mai-baggu?– Educate consumers and sell “ugly” produce via discounts and

campaigns. – More home delivery systems? (Bonus: internet based, can

easily be used to increase consumer education, put spotlight on eco-friendly solutions)

– Repurpose unconsumed food for public good: • Tokyo NPO Second Harvest gathers food that would be discarded by

corporations and restaurants to feed people lacking food security in Tokyo (single parent households, marginalized elderly, the homeless…)

– Etc.

Waste: Tokyo’s hidden resource?

• Recycling Waste: – Instead of using more resources to get rid of waste, why not harvest it? Can

and bottle recycling rate is very high. Why not recycle more things?– Currently Tokyo burns much of its garbage for energy. Is the best possible

solution? Especially given other known agriculture issues…– Compost/fertilizer

• Petrochemical fertilizers facing peak oil need an alternative. A closed loop alternative.– Animal feed

• Supplement imports – e.g. trial programs are underway in place like Chiba to turn leftover food to pig feed

– Recycle specific things like cooking oils for biofuels and other purposes• Lots of Japanese municipalities have successfully begun food oil recycling programs.

Why not tokyo?

• …Speaking of waste and compost, in the Edo Period, nearly all human waste was taken out to the fields as fertilizer (“night soil”). Why not do it again?

• (Very important for phosphate reclamation among others.)

Wild Card – Urban Farming• If megacities like Tokyo could produce some of their own food, that would

help a lot.– Looking down from Tokyo Tower, a lot of unused space is visible on roofs…

That’s a lot of sunlight potential.• Some for solar energy production, some for for production?

• Tokyo has seen many urban farming ideas– Some are working well: e.g. Ginza beekeeping

http://www.japanfs.org/en/mailmagazine/newsletter/pages/029489.html • Problem:

– Most urban farming ideas focus on attempting clever solutions or developing technologies that are more in the realm of NASA (and require nuclear reactors to power them effectively) – see Pasona underground Urban Farm à FALSE SOLUTION http://www.japantrends.com/tokyos-eco-office-pasona-urban-farm/

– Real solution? Actually just do it, using existing technologies. Greenhouses, multi-layering, effective composting of ambient food waste. Even aquaponics (“hydroponics” + “aquaculture”). See example of Growing Power, Inc. in Milwaukee/Chicago: http://growingpower.org/

Wild Card –Urban FarmingThe Good

Wild Card – Urban FarmingThe Bad*

*…this is a NASA project, not a food security project.

Wild Card – Urban FarmingThe Actually Achievable