Trends in food consumption and drivers of change

David Hallam

Expert consultation on trade and nutrition, 15-16 November 2016, FAO.

Trends in food consumption patterns by region (Kcal/Person/Day; FAO)

Trends in food consumption patterns by region (Kcal/Person/Day; FAO)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

(b) Africa

Others

Sugar & Sweeteners

Vegetable Oils

Meat

Milk

Fruits & Vegetables

Starchy Roots

Cereals

Trends in food consumption patterns by region (Kcal/Person/Day; FAO)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

(c) North America

Others

Sugar & Sweeteners

Vegetable Oils

Meat

Milk

Fruits & Vegetables

Starchy Roots

Cereals

Trends in food consumption patterns by region (Kcal/Person/Day; FAO)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

(d)Eastern Asia

Others

Sugar & Sweeteners

Vegetable Oils

Meat

Milk

Fruits & Vegetables

Starchy Roots

Cereals

Trends in food consumption patterns by income groups (Kcal/Person/Day)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

(a) High Income Countries

Others

Sugar & Sweeteners

Vegetable Oils

Meat

Milk

Fruits & Vegetables

Starchy Roots

Cereals

Trends in food consumption patterns by income groups (Kcal/Person/Day)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

(b) Upper Middle Income Countries

Others

Sugar & Sweeteners

Vegetable Oils

Meat

Milk

Fruits & Vegetables

Starchy Roots

Cereals

Trends in food consumption patterns by income groups (Kcal/Person/Day)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

(c) Lower Middle Income Countries

Others

Sugar & Sweeteners

Vegetable Oils

Meat

Milk

Fruits & Vegetables

Starchy Roots

Cereals

Trends in food consumption patterns by income groups (Kcal/Person/Day)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

40001

961

19

621

963

19

641

965

19

661

967

19

681

969

19

701

971

19

721

973

19

741

975

19

761

977

19

781

979

19

801

981

19

821

983

19

841

985

19

861

987

19

881

989

19

901

991

19

921

993

19

941

995

19

961

997

19

981

999

20

002

001

20

022

003

20

042

005

20

062

007

20

082

009

20

102

011

(d) Low Income Countries

Others

Sugar & Sweeteners

Vegetable Oils

Meat

Milk

Fruits & Vegetables

Starchy Roots

Cereals

Drivers of change in food consumption patterns (from Traill et.al., 2014)

What do the data show?

• preliminary quantitative analysis

• data limitations

• importance of income and urbanisation

• limited importance of trade and FDI

• directions for further research

What are the policy implications?

• Nutrition sensitive policies?

• Policy targets – prices, preferences, access, availability

• Agrculture

• Value chains

• Trade

• Consumers