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A Dose of Cognitive Surplus Towards A Climate for Life

Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

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green and smart techologies for profitably anda positively resolving climate destabilization, mass poverty, species extinction, oil wars and resource conflicts. And accelerating solutions through wiki-meshups.

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Page 1: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

A Dose of Cognitive Surplus Towards A Climate for Life

Page 2: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

www.conservation.org/

Soon to migrate to a web-based

social collaboration

value net

Page 3: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

More absolute poverty than any time in human history

Page 4: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours

1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines

Page 5: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Your parents lifespanYour lifespan

Your children’s lifespan

Your grandchildren’s lifespan

Today

1100

Past 400,000 years

Present atmospheric CO2concentration not exceeded past 400,000 years, and likely not during past 20 million years.

met

han e

carbon dioxide

Humanity’s Climate Footprint

Global temperature rising 15 to 60 times faster than historical natural rate.

Within grandchild’s lifespan

Oceans more acidic than past 800,000 years.

Page 6: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

6th largest extinction – 100 times the natural background rate

Page 7: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLEFirst documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report

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A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

Page 9: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

3%/yr

19x2%/yr

7x

Page 10: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000

Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint

2006

2050

now 29GtCO2

reduce to15 GtCO2

2100reduce to<5 GtCO2

Page 11: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Cognitive Surplus

Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality.

The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.

One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.

www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/looking-for-the-mouse.html

http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/

Clay Shirkey’s

Page 12: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 70,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 140+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

Page 13: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

• General purpose tool for gathering and distributing knowledge swiftly

• Process not product, never finished• Error-correcting process leads to

better articles, on average, over time• Every web page latent community

able to be enhanced and grown with conversation, sharing, plug-ins

• Cumulated insights with annotated changes

Page 14: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

agriculture5%

bldgs EE15%

transport EE15%

industry EE15%

solar15%

wind15%

biomass10%

geothermal1%

oil1%

gas2%

coal1%

forests5%

Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions

Assumes:

1) Global economic growth 2-3% per year all century long;

2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains;

3) Combined carbon cap & carbon tax

Page 15: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years –113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum.

CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs)

Envision eliminating the need for 13.8 billion coal railcars this century.

SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save $50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions.

OR, Envision eliminating the need for 6,700 Chernobyl reactors.

OR, Envision eliminating the need for 13,800 Glen Canyon dams.

OR, Envision eliminating the need for 17 million LNG tanker shipments.

Page 16: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

14 million ha

Page 17: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08
Page 18: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use

Billion tons CO2

“Leasing” CO2 ServicesSome 5 billion tons CO2 per year in CO2 offset services available in LDCs, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars annually ; and saving ODCsbillions of dollars.

US GHG levels

13 million hectares burned each year

Page 19: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year.

Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year.

Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.

USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply

$700 billion per year in energy bill savings

Page 20: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

$10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value

[source: SafeClimate.net]

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year

6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account

$

Page 21: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

CFL factories displace powerplants

source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991]

The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.

Page 22: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Less Large Power Plants & MinesMore Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”

Less Coal Power Plants

Less Coal Rail Cars

Less Coal Mines

Page 23: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Biggest Efficiency Option of Them All:Supplier Chain Factories & Products

Industrial electric motor systems consume 40% of electricity worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China – over 7 trillion kWh per year.

Retrofit savings of 30%, New savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh.

2 trillion kWh per year savings –equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030 worldwide.

$240 billion savings per decade.

$200 to $400 billion benefits per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx.

Efficiency OutcomesDemand Facts

Support SEEEM (Standards for Energy Efficiency of Electric Motor Systems)

SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market transformation strategy to promote efficient industrial electric motor systems worldwide

Page 24: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

$50 billion/yr Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction

Page 25: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Public library – North Carolina

Heinz Foundation Green Building, PA

Oberlin College Ecology Center,

Ohio

Green Buildings – ecologically sustainable, economically superior, higher occupant satisfaction

The Costs and Financial Benefits

of Green Buildings, A Report to California’s Sustainable

Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by

Greg Kats et al.

$500 to $700 per m2 net

present value

Page 26: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Daylighting could displace 100s GWs

Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

Page 27: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

High-E Windows displacing pipelines

Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills.

Page 28: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

New York

California

USA minus CA & NYPer Capital Electricity Consumption

165 GW Coal

Power Plants

Californian’s have net savings of

$1,000 per family

[EPPs]

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Key to harnessing Retail Efficiency Power Plants (EPPs)

For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

California proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.

California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

Page 29: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildingsBrick house construction is still widely used in many rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year, and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year.

The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.

RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES

Page 30: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture.

Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.

Food, Fuel, SpeciesTradeoffs?

Page 31: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-battery turbine spacing

Wind turbines ground footprint

Solar-battery

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES

Wind & Solar experts

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

Page 32: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60windpower royalty $200 $0farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income

Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits

Page 33: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Figures of MeritGreat Plains area

1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity400,000 2MW wind turbines

Platform footprint6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2

Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2

Still available for farming and prairie restoration

90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector40%

95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

Page 34: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area

Page 35: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);

Potential Synergisms

2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands --which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.

Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:

Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered

Droughts

Page 36: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.

Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!

Page 37: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 5 million acres of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities.

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Cleaning Up Brownfield

Sites w/ PV solar

Solar PV satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields

Page 38: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial

building in Switzerland

+$11,024 1.702

+$15,373 1.892

NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)

Aluminum

+$14,237 2.141

+$18,586 2.331

NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)

Polished Stone

ShanghaiBeijingEconomic Measure

Material Replaced

Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

Page 39: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Reference costs of facade-cladding materialsBIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Economics of Commercial BIPV

Page 40: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Electric vehicles with onboard battery storageand bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating reserves or storage for wind.

Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.

Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs

Page 41: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis SummaryPHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity

Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.

ENERGY POTENTIALU.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or

73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average

ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIALA shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day).

OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings

AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)

27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOxnationwide (from higher coal generation).

Page 42: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

www.conservation.org/

Soon to migrate to a web-based

social collaboration

value net

Page 43: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

ENJOY THE RIDE

Page 44: Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.

E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/

Closing the Loop – Reducing Use of Virgin Resources & Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients